Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Santos
2-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Chapecoense-sc
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos·Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil 25/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
78%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.41
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+12.7%
Santos Rest
3 days
Chapecoense-sc Rest
2 days

Santos vs Chapecoense-sc: the result in context

Santos and Chapecoense-sc drew 2-2 in the Serie A on 25 Jul 2026. Santos had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against none for Chapecoense-sc.

Santos have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.36
X
19%4.80
2
15%8.50
Double Chance
1X
85%1.07
X2
34%3.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.94
No
46%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.89 = 2.57
Over 1.5
76%1.22
Over 2.5
57%1.69
Over 3.5
33%2.75
Under 1.5
24%4.20
Under 2.5
43%2.16
Under 3.5
67%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 4.1 = 10.3
Over 8.5
67%1.38
Over 9.5
57%1.65
Over 10.5
44%2.00
Under 8.5
33%2.75
Under 9.5
43%2.12
Under 10.5
56%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.4 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.33
Over 4.5
54%1.71
Under 3.5
28%2.92
Under 4.5
46%1.97

Match Events

36'NeymarAssist: Álvaro Barreal
46'Kevin Ramírez INMarcinho out
46'Ênio INGiovanni Augusto out
46'David Antunes INBruno Matias out
51'MarcinhoAssist: Giovanni Augusto
54'CamiloFoul
62'João Paulo AnaniasOG
63'Willian Arão INChristian Oliva out
63'Benjamín Rollheiser INGustavo Caballero out
63'Igor Vinícius INGabriel Menino out
68'Lucas VeríssimoArgument
73'MatheusTime wasting
75'Bruno TubarãoFoul
76'NeymarArgument
77'Álvaro BarrealFoul
80'Gabriel Barbosa INRony out
80'Álvaro Barreal INThaciano out
80'Fernando INBruno Pacheco out
83'Camilo INVinicius Balieiro out
88'Bruno MatiasFoul
88'Card upgradeVinicius Balieiro
89'Neymar(Penalty)

Lineups

Santos
4-1-4-1Coach: Cuca
Chapecoense-sc
4-5-1Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Avg rating6.82
Avg rating6.58
Gabriel Brazão6.277G. Brazão
Igor Vinícius6.318I. Vinícius
Lucas Veríssimo6.34L. Veríssimo
João Paulo Ananias6.326J. Paulo Ananias
Gonzalo Escobar6.331G. Escobar
Willian Arão7.215W. Arão
Gabriel Bontempo7.38G. Bontempo
Benjamín Rollheiser6.332B. Rollheiser
NeymarC9.310Neymar
Álvaro Barreal7.322Á. Barreal
Gabriel Barbosa6.09G. Barbosa
Matheus6.630Matheus
Bruno Tubarão6.220B. Tubarão
Bruno Leonardo7.233B. Leonardo
Eduardo DomaC6.53E. Doma
Fernando6.612Fernando
Ênio6.397Ênio
David Antunes6.719D. Antunes
Camilo6.927Camilo
Max6.922Max
Kevin Ramírez6.394K. Ramírez
Yannick Bolasie6.511Y. Bolasie

Santos Substitutes

17Gustavo Caballero63'for Benjamín Rollheiser7.3
28Christian Oliva63'for Willian Arão6.9
25Gabriel Menino63'for Igor Vinícius7.2
16Thaciano80'for Álvaro Barreal6.7
11Rony80'for Gabriel Barbosa6.2
34João Paulo
98Adonis Frías
14Luan Peres
30Miguelito
81Samuel Mendes
5João Schmidt
7Robinho Júnior

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

16Bruno Matias46'for David Antunes88'6.0
10Giovanni Augusto46'for Ênio6.9
7Marcinho46'for Kevin Ramírez51'7.2
91Bruno Pacheco80'for Fernando6.2
17Vinicius Balieiro83'for Camilo6.3
1Rafael Santos
15Rafael Thyere
21Kauan
26Everton
18Neto Pessoa
50Kassio

Match Stats

SantosChapecoense-sc
64%Ball Possession36%
12Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards4
21Total Shots5
7Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal1
11Shots Inside Box2
10Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots1
11Fouls13
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
594Total Passes335
531Passes Accurate269
89%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
1753Elo Rating 1506
0.94Attack 0.80
1.82Defense 0.85
17%Hit Rate 19%
17.0Shots per Game 10.9
5.9Shots on Target 3.3
5.6Corners per Game 4.1
3.0Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+248 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

SantosSantos3Wins · 60%
Draws00%
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2Wins · 40%
3.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A29/01/2026
Chapecoense-scSantos
42
Serie B17/10/2024
Chapecoense-scSantos
32
Serie B03/07/2024
SantosChapecoense-sc
10
Serie A17/11/2021
SantosChapecoense-sc
20
Serie A01/08/2021
Chapecoense-scSantos
01

Recent Form

SantosSantos
5W2D3L
22/07/2026
UCVSantos
14
W
17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
L
31/05/2026
SantosVitoria
31
W
27/05/2026
SantosDeportivo Cuenca
30
W
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
L
21/05/2026
SantosSan Lorenzo
22
D
17/05/2026
SantosCoritiba
03
L
14/05/2026
CoritibaSantos
02
W
10/05/2026
SantosRB Bragantino
20
W
06/05/2026
Deportivo RecoletaSantos
11
D
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
2W2D6L
23/07/2026
Chapecoense-scFlamengo
04
L
18/07/2026
BahiaChapecoense-sc
20
L
07/06/2026
Chapecoense-scAvai
4350
L
04/06/2026
AvaiChapecoense-sc
30
L
31/05/2026
PalmeirasChapecoense-sc
10
L
28/05/2026
Chapecoense-scNovorizontino
22
D
21/05/2026
NovorizontinoChapecoense-sc
02
W
17/05/2026
Chapecoense-scRemo
23
L
14/05/2026
Chapecoense-scBotafogo
20
W
10/05/2026
MirassolChapecoense-sc
11
D
5.28Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.28Red cards per match
27.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho5.28
Other referees5.06

5.28 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.06).

Cards come from 32 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Santos vs Chapecoense-sc forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Santos and Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Santos are 9th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 26 points apart. League goal record so far: Santos 50-49, Chapecoense-sc 33-68. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.