Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Serie ABrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 20
Santos
2-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Chapecoense-sc
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos· Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil 25/07/2026
SantosSantos
2-2
Finished
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
78%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.41
SignalHIGHModel61%RiskMediumGap+12.7%
Santos Rest
3 days
Chapecoense-sc Rest
2 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.36
X
19%4.80
2
15%8.50
Double Chance
1X
85%1.07
X2
34%3.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.94
No
46%1.79
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.89 = 2.57
Over 1.5
76%1.21
Over 2.5
57%1.69
Over 3.5
33%2.73
Under 1.5
24%4.26
Under 2.5
43%2.17
Under 3.5
67%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 4.1 = 10.3
Over 8.5
67%1.36
Over 9.5
57%1.63
Over 10.5
44%2.00
Under 8.5
33%2.77
Under 9.5
43%2.12
Under 10.5
56%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.4 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.33
Over 4.5
54%1.73
Under 3.5
28%2.92
Under 4.5
46%2.00

Match Events

36'NeymarAssist: Álvaro Barreal
46'Kevin Ramírez INMarcinho out
46'Ênio INGiovanni Augusto out
46'David Antunes INBruno Matias out
51'MarcinhoAssist: Giovanni Augusto
54'CamiloFoul
62'João Paulo AnaniasOG
63'Willian Arão INChristian Oliva out
63'Benjamín Rollheiser INGustavo Caballero out
63'Igor Vinícius INGabriel Menino out
68'Lucas VeríssimoArgument
73'MatheusTime wasting
75'Bruno TubarãoFoul
76'NeymarArgument
77'Álvaro BarrealFoul
80'Gabriel Barbosa INRony out
80'Álvaro Barreal INThaciano out
80'Fernando INBruno Pacheco out
83'Camilo INVinicius Balieiro out
88'Bruno MatiasFoul
88'Card upgradeVinicius Balieiro
89'Neymar(Penalty)

Lineups

Santos
4-1-4-1Coach: Cuca
Chapecoense-sc
4-5-1Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Gabriel Brazão77G. BrazãoGabriel Brazão
Igor Vinícius18I. ViníciusIgor Vinícius
Lucas Veríssimo4L. VeríssimoLucas Veríssimo
João Paulo Ananias26J. Paulo AnaniasJoão Paulo Ananias
Gonzalo Escobar31G. EscobarGonzalo Escobar
Willian Arão15W. ArãoWillian Arão
Gabriel Bontempo8G. BontempoGabriel Bontempo
Benjamín Rollheiser32B. RollheiserBenjamín Rollheiser
Neymar10NeymarNeymar
Álvaro Barreal22Á. BarrealÁlvaro Barreal
Gabriel Barbosa9G. BarbosaGabriel Barbosa
Matheus30MatheusMatheus
Bruno Tubarão20B. TubarãoBruno Tubarão
Bruno Leonardo33B. LeonardoBruno Leonardo
Eduardo Doma3E. DomaEduardo Doma
Fernando12FernandoFernando
Ênio97ÊnioÊnio
David Antunes19D. AntunesDavid Antunes
Camilo27CamiloCamilo
Max22MaxMax
Kevin Ramírez94K. RamírezKevin Ramírez
Yannick Bolasie11Y. BolasieYannick Bolasie

Santos Substitutes

17Gustavo CaballeroF
28Christian OlivaM
25Gabriel MeninoM
16ThacianoM
11RonyF
34João PauloG
98Adonis FríasD
14Luan PeresD
30MiguelitoM
81Samuel MendesM
5João SchmidtM
7Robinho JúniorF

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

16Bruno MatiasM
10Giovanni AugustoM
7MarcinhoF
91Bruno PachecoD
17Vinicius BalieiroM
1Rafael SantosG
15Rafael ThyereD
21KauanD
26EvertonD
18Neto PessoaF
50KassioF

Match Stats

SantosChapecoense-sc
64%Ball Possession36%
12Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards4
21Total Shots5
7Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal1
11Shots Inside Box2
10Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots1
11Fouls13
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
594Total Passes335
531Passes Accurate269
89%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
1762Elo Rating 1542
1.72Attack 1.51
2.34Defense 1.22
83%Hit Rate 39%
16.7Shots per Game 14.8
5.8Shots on Target 4.3
6.2Corners per Game 4.5
2.4Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+220 Elo
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Santos 50%Draw 0%50% Chapecoense-sc
3.43Avg Goals
50%BTTS Rate
50%Over 2.5

Recent Form

SantosSantos
3W0D2L
22/07/2026
UCVSantos
14
W17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
L
31/05/2026
SantosVitoria
31
W
27/05/2026
SantosDeportivo Cuenca
30
W
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
L
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
0W0D5L
23/07/2026
Chapecoense-scFlamengo
04
L18/07/2026
BahiaChapecoense-sc
20
L07/06/2026
Chapecoense-scAvai
4350
L
04/06/2026
AvaiChapecoense-sc
30
L
31/05/2026
PalmeirasChapecoense-sc
10
L

Referee Profile

Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil · 10 matches analysed

4.9Avg Yellows
5.2Avg Cards
26.2Avg Fouls
Stricter than 82% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras27168347:21+2656WDDWL
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
4BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
5FluminenseFluminense27129641:35+645LWDWW
6CruzeiroCruzeiro27126939:39042LWLWW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG26116935:31+439WLWDW
8CoritibaCoritiba27108937:38-138DLWWD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
10SantosSantos2698939:39035WWWDW
11Sao PauloSao Paulo26961131:30+133LWWLD
12VitoriaVitoria27961227:39-1233DWLLW
13CorinthiansCorinthians27881128:29-132LLLLL
14BotafogoBotafogo26881038:41-332DDLLL
15MirassolMirassol27781231:42-1129DWLDD
16GremioGremio26771228:35-728LLWLL
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama26771229:41-1228WLWLL
18InternacionalInternacional276101130:35-528WLLDD
19RemoRemo27581431:45-1423LLLLD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc26381528:52-2417LWLWD
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2747:2156
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
4BahiaBahia2742:3346
5FluminenseFluminense2741:3545
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2739:3942
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2635:3139
8CoritibaCoritiba2737:3838
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
10SantosSantos2639:3935
11Sao PauloSao Paulo2631:3033
12VitoriaVitoria2727:3933
13CorinthiansCorinthians2728:2932
14BotafogoBotafogo2638:4132
15MirassolMirassol2731:4229
16GremioGremio2628:3528
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2629:4128
18InternacionalInternacional2730:3528
19RemoRemo2731:4523
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2628:5217
PromotionRelegation

Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Santos have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Santos and Chapecoense-sc have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.43 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.