Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Prediction

Galatasaray
2-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Fenerbahçe
Rams Park Stadyumu, Istanbul·Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye 26/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.1 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-5.1%
Galatasaray Rest
5 days
Fenerbahçe Rest
6 days

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: the result in context

Galatasaray beat Fenerbahçe 2-1 in the Süper Lig on 26 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game. Referee Atilla Karaoglan averages 5.60 cards a game, 0.94 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%1.95
X
25%3.87
2
27%3.38
Double Chance
1X
73%1.30
X2
52%1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.41
No
37%2.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.52 + 1.32 = 2.84
Over 1.5
82%1.13
Over 2.5
62%1.47
Over 3.5
40%2.19
Under 1.5
18%5.60
Under 2.5
38%2.63
Under 3.5
60%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 5.1 = 10.6
Over 8.5
71%1.42
Over 9.5
60%1.75
Over 10.5
49%2.16
Under 8.5
29%2.60
Under 9.5
40%1.98
Under 10.5
51%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.7 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
51%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
49%-

Match Events

10'I. KahveciHolding
11'M. SkriniarRoughing
19'D. SanchezRoughing
29'V. OsimhenAssist: B. Yilmaz
31'N. KanteHolding
44'V. OsimhenAssist: D. Sanchez
45+1'O. Buruk
54'N. SemedoHolding
55'M. Greenwood INK. Akturkoglu out
56'L. Mercan INK. Peprah out
62'I. KahveciAssist: O. Aydin
64'B. Yilmaz INR. Leao out
78'O. Aydin IND. Nene out
78'I. Kahveci INM. Yandas out
80'Y. Akgun INL. Sane out
80'A. Batrakov INGabriel Sara out
80'I. Jakobs INE. Elmali out
83'N. Kante INV. Muriqi out
88'V. Osimhen INW. Singo out
89'R. LeaoTripping
90+1'A. BrownRoughing

Lineups

Galatasaray
4-2-3-1
Fenerbahçe
4-2-3-1
Avg rating7.07
Avg rating6.60
Uğurcan Çakır6.21U. Çakır
Roland Sallai7.27R. Sallai
Davinson Sánchez6.96D. Sánchez
Abdülkerim BardakcıC6.542A. Bardakcı
Ismail Jakobs6.94I. Jakobs
Lucas Torreira6.534L. Torreira
Mario Lemina7.299M. Lemina
Yunus Akgün7.011Y. Akgün
Aleksey Batrakov7.683A. Batrakov
Barış Alper Yılmaz7.753B. Alper Yılmaz
Victor Osimhen8.245V. Osimhen
Ederson6.931Ederson
Nélson Semedo6.327N. Semedo
Milan ŠkriniarC6.737M. Škriniar
Archie Brown5.93A. Brown
Levent Mercan6.322L. Mercan
Mattéo Guendouzi6.36M. Guendouzi
N'Golo Kanté6.391N. Kanté
Mason Greenwood6.311M. Greenwood
İrfan Can Kahveci7.317İ. Can Kahveci
Oğuz Aydın6.970O. Aydın
Romelu Lukaku7.09R. Lukaku

Galatasaray Substitutes

24Jankat Yılmaz
17Eren Elmalı80'for I. Jakobs
90Wilfried Singo88'for V. Osimhen
10Leroy Sané80'for Y. Akgun
74Renato Nhaga
20İlkay Gündoğan
18Lesley Ugochukwu
8Gabriel Sara80'for A. Batrakov
21Deniz Gül
27Rafael Leão64'for B. Yilmaz89'6.9

Fenerbahçe Substitutes

34Mert Günok
18Mert Müldür
14Yiğit Efe Demir
21Kojo Peprah Oppong56'for L. Mercan7.0
8Mert Hakan Yandaş78'for I. Kahveci6.7
28Bartuğ Elmaz
5İsmail Yüksek
19Vedat Muriqi83'for N. Kante
7Kerem Aktürkoğlu55'for M. Greenwood6.6
45Dorgeles Nene78'for O. Aydin6.5

Match Stats

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
63%Ball Possession37%
9Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards4
22Total Shots2
7Shots on Goal2
12Shots off Goal0
15Shots Inside Box2
7Shots Outside Box0
3Blocked Shots0
8Fouls17
4Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
407Total Passes235
352Passes Accurate165
86%Pass Accuracy70%

Team Comparison

GalatasarayGalatasaray
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
1830Elo Rating 1848
2.00Attack 2.85
0.95Defense 1.29
66%Hit Rate 54%
13.8Shots per Game 18.0
4.8Shots on Target 6.1
5.3Corners per Game 5.0
1.7Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📈BTTS Trend30% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

GalatasarayGalatasaray
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.2 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

GalatasarayGalatasaray5Wins · 50%
Draws330%
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe2Wins · 20%
1.9Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Süper Lig26/04/2026
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
30
Super Cup10/01/2026
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
02
Süper Lig01/12/2025
FenerbahçeGalatasaray
11
Türkiye Kupası02/04/2025
FenerbahçeGalatasaray
12
Süper Lig24/02/2025
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
00
Süper Lig21/09/2024
FenerbahçeGalatasaray
13
Süper Lig19/05/2024
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
01
Super Cup07/04/2024
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
10
Süper Lig24/12/2023
FenerbahçeGalatasaray
00
Süper Lig04/06/2023
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
30
Kıtalararası DerbiFull head-to-head record

Referee Profile

Atilla Karaoglan158 matches

5.63Cards per match
5.39Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Atilla Karaoglan5.60
Other referees4.66

5.60 cards a match, 0.94 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.66).

Cards come from 145 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Süper Lig 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AmedAmed962120:10+1020WWDWW
2TrabzonsporTrabzonspor961222:8+1419WWWWL
3GalatasarayGalatasaray861117:11+619WWLWW
4BeşiktaşBeşiktaş960318:10+818WLWLW
5FenerbahçeFenerbahçe851222:6+1616WWWDL
6KasımpaşaKasımpaşa944113:9+416WWLDW
7KocaelisporKocaelispor950411:9+215WLLWL
8Erzurumspor FKErzurumspor FK94238:12-414WWDWL
9Çorum FKÇorum FK941418:15+313LWWLW
10GöztepeGöztepe933319:16+312WWWDD
11AlanyasporAlanyaspor93339:11-212LLDWD
12BaşakşehirBaşakşehir932412:14-211LWDWL
13RizesporRizespor931511:15-410LLLDW
14KonyasporKonyaspor92256:9-38WLDDW
15Gaziantep FKGaziantep FK92259:15-68LLLLD
16Gençlerbirliği S.K.Gençlerbirliği S.K.92257:18-118LLDLL
17SamsunsporSamsunspor91178:21-134LLLLL
18EyüpsporEyüpspor91082:23-213LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AmedAmed920:1020
2TrabzonsporTrabzonspor922:819
3GalatasarayGalatasaray817:1119
4BeşiktaşBeşiktaş918:1018
5FenerbahçeFenerbahçe822:616
6KasımpaşaKasımpaşa913:916
7KocaelisporKocaelispor911:915
8Erzurumspor FKErzurumspor FK98:1214
9Çorum FKÇorum FK918:1513
10GöztepeGöztepe919:1612
11AlanyasporAlanyaspor99:1112
12BaşakşehirBaşakşehir912:1411
13RizesporRizespor911:1510
14KonyasporKonyaspor96:98
15Gaziantep FKGaziantep FK99:158
16Gençlerbirliği S.K.Gençlerbirliği S.K.97:188
17SamsunsporSamsunspor98:214
18EyüpsporEyüpspor92:233
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe forecast

As a derby, this Süper Lig meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig table

Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe are close in the Süper Lig table, 3rd and 5th, with 3 points between them. League goal record so far: Galatasaray 17-11, Fenerbahçe 22-6. The full standings are on the Süper Lig Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fenerbahçe have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.