Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe Prediction
World · League Stage - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalSTRONGModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+7.5%
Aston Villa Rest
4 days
Fenerbahçe Rest
4 days
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: the result in context
Aston Villa beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 14 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Referee Ivan Kruzliak averages 5.02 cards a game, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
158%1.70
X23%4.02
219%4.75
Double Chance
1X81%1.19
X242%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes58%1.59
No42%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.83 + 1.2 = 3.03
Over 1.580%1.15
Over 2.558%1.57
Over 3.536%2.49
Under 1.520%4.70
Under 2.542%2.35
Under 3.564%1.55
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.1 = 8.7
Over 8.559%1.39
Over 9.543%1.68
Over 10.533%2.13
Under 8.541%2.67
Under 9.557%2.03
Under 10.567%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.1 = 4.3
Over 3.562%1.66
Over 4.542%2.23
Under 3.538%2.15
Under 4.558%1.61
Match Events
12'Johan Manzambi
31'Nicolas JacksonAssist: Boubacar Kamara
39'Nicolas JacksonAssist: Ross Barkley
42'Mattéo GuendouziFoul
68'Ross Barkley(Penalty)
69'Ismail Yüksek INBartuğ Elmaz out
69'Vedat Muriqi INRomelu Lukaku out
69'Mason Greenwood INNene Dorgeles out
72'Ross BarkleyAssist: Ibrahim Mbaye
73'Boubacar Kamara IN Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha out
73'Johan Manzambi INJoão Gomes out
78'Oğuz AydınFoul
78'Nicolas Jackson INTammy Abraham out
79'Ibrahim Mbaye INAlejandro Garnacho out
83'Ross Barkley INLeon Goretzka out
90'Tammy AbrahamAssist: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
Lineups
Aston VillaFenerbahçe
4-2-3-1Coach: İ. KartalAvg ratingAvg rating
1Z. Suzuki
2M. Cash
3V. Lindelöf
14P. Torres
29A. Wan-Bissaka
8B. Kamara
6R. Barkley
7J. McGinn
44J. Manzambi
19I. Mbaye
11N. Jackson
31Ederson
27N. Semedo
37M. Škriniar
15N. Aké
3A. Brown
5İ. Yüksek
6M. Guendouzi
11M. Greenwood
17İ. Kahveci
70O. Aydın
19V. MuriqiAston Villa Substitutes
18T. Abraham78'for Nicolas Jackson90'
10E. Buendía
17A. Garnacho79'for Ibrahim Mbaye
35João Gomes73'for Johan Manzambi
27L. Goretzka83'for Ross Barkley
5T. Mings
42J. Wright
47Alysson Edward73'for Boubacar Kamara
26L. Bogarde
40M. Bizot
Fenerbahçe Substitutes
13T. Çetin
14Y. Demir
28B. Elmaz69'for Ismail Yüksek
34M. Günok
91N. Kanté
9R. Lukaku69'for Vedat Muriqi
22L. Mercan
77O. MimoviÄ
45N. Dorgeles69'for Mason Greenwood
21K. Peprah Oppong
7K. Aktürkoğlu
Match Stats
Aston VillaFenerbahçe 45%Ball Possession55%
9Corner Kicks7
0Yellow Cards2
20Total Shots15
11Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box7
9Shots Outside Box8
4Blocked Shots6
12Fouls6
1Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves5
389Total Passes470
350Passes Accurate423
6Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
Aston VillaFenerbahçe1950Elo Rating 1848
2.70Attack 2.85
2.22Defense 1.29
86%Hit Rate 54%
16.0Shots per Game 18.0
6.2Shots on Target 6.1
5.7Corners per Game 5.0
1.7Cards per Game 1.9
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+102 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.03 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Aston Villa- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.1 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Fenerbahçe- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.2 in second half)
Head to Head
1 previous meeting, all competitions
Aston Villa1Wins · 100%Draws00%
Fenerbahçe0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1
Previous meetings
22/01/2026FenerbahçeAston Villa01
Recent Form
Aston Villa4W2D4L
10/10/2026Aston Villa
Brentford
Aston VillaBrentford22
D02/10/2026
SevillaAston Villa
19/09/2026SevillaAston Villa13
W
TottenhamAston Villa23
W16/09/2026
CoventryAston Villa13
W12/09/2026Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest12
L08/09/2026
Club Brugge KVAston Villa23
W05/09/2026
Hull CityAston Villa00
D31/08/2026Aston Villa
Arsenal01
L23/08/2026
BrightonAston Villa40
L15/08/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa
Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa21
LFenerbahçe6W3D1L
10/10/2026
RizesporFenerbahçeFenerbahçe
Eyüpspor
Gaziantep FKFenerbahçeFenerbahçe
AS RomaFenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
SamsunsporFenerbahçe
LyonFenerbahçeFenerbahçe
KonyasporFenerbahçeLyon
RizesporFenerbahçe03
W03/10/2026
TuranFenerbahçe
20/09/2026TuranFenerbahçe02
WFenerbahçeEyüpspor80
W14/09/2026Gaziantep FKFenerbahçe00
D10/09/2026FenerbahçeAS Roma11
D05/09/2026FenerbahçeBeşiktaş12
L30/08/2026SamsunsporFenerbahçe02
W26/08/2026LyonFenerbahçe12
W22/08/2026FenerbahçeKonyaspor42
W18/08/2026FenerbahçeLyon11
DReferee Profile
5.02Cards per match
4.81Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
26.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.02 cards a match, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.17).
Cards come from 162 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 21 |  Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Champions League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
VikingAEK Athens FC
CelticLask Linz
Union St. GilloiseBodo/Glimt
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta PrahaLyonSlovan Bratislava
Mjallby AIF
Aarhus
Lech PoznanFenerbahçe
Gornik Zabrze
FC Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Heart Of Midlothian
FK Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Omonia Nicosia
CeljeVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonSlovan BratislavaMjallby AIFAarhusLech PoznanFenerbahçeGornik ZabrzeFC ThunDinamo ZagrebSturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianFK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaOmonia NicosiaCeljeExplore more predictions
This match
About the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Aston Villa are 2nd and Fenerbahçe 31st, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Aston Villa 12-3, Fenerbahçe 3-9. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Aston Villa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Fenerbahçe have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe have met only 1 time recently, with 1.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.