Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction
Japan · Regular Season - 14
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalHIGHModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-4.7%
Gamba Osaka Rest
3 days
Cerezo Osaka Rest
8 days
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka: the result in context
Cerezo Osaka beat Gamba Osaka 3-2 in the J1 League on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Referee Atsushi Kamimura averages 3.38 cards a game, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
144%2.30
X26%3.47
230%2.90
Double Chance
1X71%1.39
X256%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes58%1.57
No42%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.73 + 1.05 = 2.78
Over 1.578%1.20
Over 2.555%1.73
Over 3.533%2.72
Under 1.522%4.05
Under 2.545%2.10
Under 3.567%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4.1 = 10
Over 8.565%1.41
Over 9.553%1.73
Over 10.541%2.15
Under 8.535%2.63
Under 9.547%2.01
Under 10.559%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2 = 4
Over 3.557%-
Over 4.538%-
Under 3.543%-
Under 4.562%-
Match Events
11'Rikito InoueAssist: Lucas Fernandes
35'Jackson IrvineFoul
38'Shota FukuokaFoul
39'Hayato OkudaFoul
45'Koshiro Sumi INEli Adams out
48'Eli AdamsFoul
55'Issam Jebali
59'Satoki Uejo INPablo Sabbag out
64'Pablo Sabbag
74'Hayato Okuda
75'Tokuma Suzuki INTsuyoshi Ogashiwa out
79'Pablo SabbagTime wasting
81'Eli AdamsAssist: Issam Jebali
82'Shota Fukuoka INShogo Sasaki out
82'Ryo Hatsuse INDeniz Hümmet out
82'Yumeki Yokoyama INYota Komi out
86'Lucas FernandesFoul
87'Issam Jebali INRyotaro Meshino out
90'Lucas Fernandes INKosei Okazawa out
Lineups
Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka
4-4-2Coach: Pablo MachínAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Higashiguchi
15T. Kishimoto
4S. Nakatani
2S. Fukuoka
21R. Hatsuse
13S. Abe
16T. Suzuki
17R. Yamashita
7T. Usami
39K. Sumi
11I. Jebali
23K. Nakamura
16H. Okuda
27D. Cools
4R. Inoue
66A. Ohata
77L. Fernandes
36J. Irvine
10S. Tanaka
14Y. Yokoyama
9S. Sakuragawa
7S. UejoGamba Osaka Substitutes
28S. Fujiwara
23D. Hümmet82'for Ryo Hatsuse
22J. Ichimori
78Juanpe
20E. Adams45'for Koshiro Sumi48'81'
8R. Meshino87'for Issam Jebali
47S. Nakano
24T. Ogashiwa75'for Tokuma Suzuki
67S. Sasaki82'for Shota Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka Substitutes
31K. Abe
15Javi Hernández
41Y. Komi82'for Yumeki Yokoyama
2T. Nakamura
6K. Noborizato
28K. Okazawa90'for Lucas Fernandes
19P. Sabbag59'for Satoki Uejo64'79'
17R. Sakata
97T. Takahashi
Match Stats
Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka 55%Ball Possession45%
4Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards4
21Total Shots17
5Shots on Goal8
11Shots off Goal7
15Shots Inside Box11
6Shots Outside Box6
5Blocked Shots2
13Fouls12
3Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves3
544Total Passes320
432Passes Accurate216
10Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka1615Elo Rating 1580
1.62Attack 1.79
1.52Defense 0.57
14%Hit Rate 23%
16.5Shots per Game 16.0
6.6Shots on Target 3.7
5.8Corners per Game 2.7
1.2Cards per Game 3.2
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend30% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Gamba Osaka- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Cerezo Osaka- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Gamba Osaka3Wins · 30%Draws220%
Cerezo Osaka5Wins · 50%
5Wins · 50%1.8Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10
Previous meetings
11/04/2026Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka01
07/02/2026Cerezo OsakaGamba Osaka4050
05/07/2025Cerezo OsakaGamba Osaka01
14/02/2025Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka25
02/10/2024Cerezo OsakaGamba Osaka10
06/05/2024Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka10
28/10/2023Cerezo OsakaGamba Osaka10
18/06/2023Cerezo OsakaGamba Osaka01
03/05/2023Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka12
26/03/2023Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka11
Osaka derbyFull head-to-head record
Recent Form
Gamba Osaka3W5D2L
04/11/2026
Pohang SteelersGamba Osaka
Machida ZelviaGamba OsakaGamba Osaka
Buriram UnitedGamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
Newcastle JetsGamba Osaka
KashimaGamba Osaka
Pohang SteelersGamba Osaka33
D01/11/2026Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka00
D28/10/2026Gamba OsakaBuriram United11
D24/10/2026Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga22
D21/10/2026
Avispa FukuokaGamba Osaka
Avispa FukuokaGamba Osaka12
W17/10/2026
Shimizu S-pulseGamba Osaka
13/10/2026Shimizu S-pulseGamba Osaka22
DNewcastle JetsGamba Osaka13
W09/10/2026KashimaGamba Osaka20
L03/10/2026
Kashiwa ReysolGamba Osaka
Kashiwa ReysolGamba Osaka5343
L23/09/2026Gamba Osaka
Tokushima Vortis
Gamba OsakaTokushima Vortis50
WCerezo Osaka4W4D2L
31/10/2026KashimaCerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
JEF United Chiba
Nagoya GrampusCerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
Kawasaki FrontaleCerezo Osaka
Yokohama F. Marinos
V-varen NagasakiCerezo Osaka
KashimaCerezo Osaka41
L28/10/2026
Mito HollyhockCerezo Osaka
25/10/2026Mito HollyhockCerezo Osaka13
WCerezo OsakaJEF United Chiba22
D21/10/2026Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka11
D17/10/2026Cerezo OsakaKawasaki Frontale24
L14/10/2026
Gainare TottoriCerezo Osaka
10/10/2026Gainare TottoriCerezo Osaka23
WCerezo OsakaYokohama F. Marinos00
D07/10/2026Cerezo Osaka
Kagoshima United
Cerezo OsakaKagoshima United20
W29/09/2026
Fujieda MYFCCerezo Osaka
19/09/2026Fujieda MYFCCerezo Osaka12
WV-varen NagasakiCerezo Osaka11
DReferee Profile
3.38Cards per match
3.17Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.38 cards a match, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.71).
Cards come from 24 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 33:8 | +25 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 31:20 | +11 | 31 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 32:10 | +22 | 30 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 30:10 | +20 | 29 | DDDWW |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23:14 | +9 | 27 | DWDLW |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29:24 | +5 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 21:15 | +6 | 22 | DWDDD |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28:24 | +4 | 22 | LLWWW |
| 9 |  Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23:29 | -6 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 10 |  Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16:22 | -6 | 17 | DLLWL |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16:25 | -9 | 17 | WLDDL |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19:23 | -4 | 16 | WWDDL |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:23 | -8 | 14 | LLDDW |
| 14 |  Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12:22 | -10 | 14 | WWWDL |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10:23 | -13 | 14 | LLLLD |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:22 | -5 | 13 | DLLWL |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 13 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 16:24 | -8 | 12 | LDDWD |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12:26 | -14 | 9 | LLLLL |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14:25 | -11 | 8 | DLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 33:8 | 33 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 31:20 | 31 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 32:10 | 30 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 30:10 | 29 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 23:14 | 27 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 29:24 | 23 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 21:15 | 22 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 28:24 | 22 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 23:29 | 22 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 16:22 | 17 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 16:25 | 17 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 19:23 | 16 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 15:23 | 14 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 12:22 | 14 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 10:23 | 14 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 16:24 | 13 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 16:24 | 12 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 12:26 | 9 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 14:25 | 8 |
Champions LeagueRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More J1 League matches
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 07/11/26
- Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga 07/11/26
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama 07/11/26
- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki 07/11/26
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima 07/11/26
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale 07/11/26
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa 08/11/26
- JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock 08/11/26
About the Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka forecast
As a derby, this J1 League meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League table
In the J1 League table, Cerezo Osaka are 11th and Gamba Osaka 18th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Gamba Osaka 16-24, Cerezo Osaka 16-25. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.