Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba Prediction

Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium, Osaka·Koei Koya 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalHIGHModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-5.9%
Cerezo Osaka Rest
3 days
JEF United Chiba Rest
3 days

Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba: result, form and history

Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba drew 2-2 in the J1 League on 25 Oct 2026. Cerezo Osaka had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for JEF United Chiba.

JEF United Chiba tend to win more corners, 6.3 a game to 2.7 for Cerezo Osaka.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.73
X
24%3.89
2
20%4.50
Double Chance
1X
80%1.19
X2
44%2.09
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.69
No
45%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.96 = 2.64
Over 1.5
78%1.22
Over 2.5
55%1.72
Over 3.5
33%2.75
Under 1.5
22%4.00
Under 2.5
45%2.09
Under 3.5
67%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.9 = 9.3
Over 8.5
57%1.36
Over 9.5
45%1.65
Over 10.5
34%2.05
Under 8.5
43%2.78
Under 9.5
55%2.10
Under 10.5
66%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.3 = 3.9
Over 3.5
54%-
Over 4.5
35%-
Under 3.5
46%-
Under 4.5
65%-

Match Events

23'Makoto HimenoAssist: Erison Danilo de Souza
26'Lucas FernandesArgument
40'Takumi TsukuiFoul
45'Takumi Nakamura INSolomon Sakuragawa out
47'Erison Danilo de SouzaAssist: Hiroto Goya
52'Hiroto GoyaDissent
59'Takuya Yasui INTaishi Taguchi out
61'Hiroto Goya INKen Yamura out
61'Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco INMatheus Salgueiro Pains out
65'Solomon SakuragawaDissent
67'Yota Komi INYumeki Yokoyama out
67'Makoto Himeno INKazuki Tanaka out
68'Koji Toriumi INDaisuke Suzuki out
74'Erison Danilo de Souza INNaohiro Sugiyama out
74'Lucas Fernandes INShinji Kagawa out
78'Yoshiyuki KobayashiDissent
88'Shunta Tanaka INSatoki Uejo out
90+1'Dion CoolsFoul
90+6'Solomon SakuragawaAssist: Rikito Inoue
90+8'Yumeki YokoyamaAssist: Ayumu Ohata

Lineups

Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Machín
JEF United Chiba
4-4-2Coach: Y. Kobayashi
Avg rating6.63
Avg rating6.63
Kosuke Nakamura5.923K. Nakamura
Dion-Johan Cools5.927D. Cools
T. Takahashi6.797T. Takahashi
R. Inoue7.34R. Inoue
T. Nakamura6.02T. Nakamura
J. Irvine6.536J. Irvine
S. Tanaka6.510S. Tanaka
A. Ohata7.166A. Ohata
Lucas Fernandes6.377L. Fernandes
Y. Komi6.441Y. Komi
P. Sabbag6.419P. Sabbag
J. Suarez5.919J. Suarez
T. Mae6.415T. Mae
K. Toriumi6.024K. Toriumi
B. Nduka6.92B. Nduka
M. Hidaka6.767M. Hidaka
T. Tsukui6.58T. Tsukui
Dudu6.46Dudu
T. Yasui6.341T. Yasui
M. Himeno7.737M. Himeno
H. Goya6.39H. Goya
Erison8.699Erison

Cerezo Osaka Substitutes

7S. Uejo88'for Shunta Tanaka6.1
8S. Kagawa74'for Lucas Fernandes6.1
31K. Abe
15Javi Hernández
28K. Okazawa
16H. Okuda
17R. Sakata
9S. Sakuragawa45'for Takumi Nakamura65'90+6'8.2
14Y. Yokoyama67'for Yota Komi90+8'8.1

JEF United Chiba Substitutes

7K. Tanaka67'for Makoto Himeno6.7
29K. Yamura61'for Hiroto Goya6.8
4T. Taguchi59'for Takuya Yasui6.1
23R. Suzuki
13D. Suzuki68'for Koji Toriumi6.6
18N. Sugiyama74'for Erison Danilo de Souza6.5
45Leonardo Rocha
25Matheus Índio61'for Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco6.2
28T. Kawano

Match Stats

Cerezo OsakaJEF United Chiba
60%Ball Possession40%
5Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards2
25Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal5
13Shots off Goal3
18Shots Inside Box8
7Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots5
10Fouls17
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves3
519Total Passes355
412Passes Accurate259
17Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba
1591Elo Rating 1411
1.59Attack 1.02
1.42Defense 1.27
34%Hit Rate 0%
10.5Shots per Game 15.2
3.2Shots on Target 3.2
2.7Corners per Game 6.3
3.7Cards per Game 3.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+181 Elo
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba
2W3D5L
21/10/2026
UrawaJEF United Chiba
32
L
17/10/2026
JEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
00
D
11/10/2026
JEF United ChibaV-varen Nagasaki
11
D
07/10/2026
Fagiano OkayamaJEF United Chiba
10
L
29/09/2026
Jubilo IwataJEF United Chiba
42
L
19/09/2026
Shimizu S-pulseJEF United Chiba
21
L
13/09/2026
Tokyo VerdyJEF United Chiba
11
D
09/09/2026
Kamatamare SanukiJEF United Chiba
02
W
06/09/2026
JEF United ChibaGamba Osaka
20
W
02/09/2026
JEF United ChibaFagiano Okayama
12
L

Referee Profile

Koei Koya136 matches

2.64Cards per match
2.51Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Koei Koya2.64
Other referees2.51

2.64 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.51).

Cards come from 91 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Cerezo Osaka are 12th and JEF United Chiba 20th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Cerezo Osaka 12-19, JEF United Chiba 12-24. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Cerezo Osaka and JEF United Chiba have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.