Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Heerenveen
2-3
Finished
HT 2-1
AZ Alkmaar
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen·Jeroen Manschot 06/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.28
SignalSTRONGModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+10.3%
Heerenveen Rest
7 days
AZ Alkmaar Rest
7 days

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: result, form and history

AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3-2 in the Eredivisie on 6 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: AZ Alkmaar had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Heerenveen.

AZ Alkmaar have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.9 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%3.80
X
23%4.10
2
54%1.83
Double Chance
1X
46%1.97
X2
77%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.41
No
41%2.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.15 + 1.9 = 3.05
Over 1.5
83%1.11
Over 2.5
60%1.40
Over 3.5
36%2.05
Under 1.5
17%6.00
Under 2.5
40%2.77
Under 3.5
64%1.76
Corners
Projected Corners: 4 + 7.1 = 11.1
Over 8.5
79%1.28
Over 9.5
67%1.52
Over 10.5
64%1.86
Under 8.5
21%3.08
Under 9.5
33%2.36
Under 10.5
36%1.85
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 1.6 = 3.7
Over 3.5
50%1.93
Over 4.5
31%2.90
Under 3.5
50%1.80
Under 4.5
69%1.32

Match Events

7'Ro Zangelo DaalAssist: Wouter Goes
21'Nolhan courtensAssist: Dylan Vente
28'Nolhan courtensFoul
30'Ringo MeerveldAssist: Dirk Proper
45'Mateo Chávez INMees de Wit out
45'Weslley Pinto Batista INCalvin Stengs out
54'Ro Zangelo DaalDissent
64'Jordy Clasie INValdemar Byskov Andreasen out
68'Dylan Vente INRoberts Uldriķis out
68'Maxence Rivera INLuca Oyen out
68'Elijah Dijkstra INSeiya Maikuma out
69'Mexx MeerdinkAssist: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
74'Dirk Proper INLevi Smans out
82'Ro Zangelo Daal INAyoub Oufkir out
83'Ayoub OufkirAssist: Mexx Meerdink
88'Nolhan courtens INHristiyan Petrov out
90+1'Ayoub OufkirFoul

Lineups

Heerenveen
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Veldeman
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Coach: L. Echteld
Avg rating6.44
Avg rating6.66
B. Klaverboer6.722B. Klaverboer
O. Braude5.845O. Braude
S. Kersten6.54S. Kersten
M. Willemsen6.03M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis6.419V. Zagaritis
N. Courtens7.036N. Courtens
D. Proper6.96D. Proper
J. Trenskow6.320J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld7.010R. Meerveld
M. Rivera5.87M. Rivera
D. Vente7.39D. Vente
J. De Busser6.128J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra6.522E. Dijkstra
W. Goes6.93W. Goes
L. Schouten6.94L. Schouten
M. Chávez5.85M. Chávez
J. Clasie6.38J. Clasie
P. Koopmeiners7.16P. Koopmeiners
Weslley Patati6.27W. Patati
D. Kwakman6.721D. Kwakman
R. Daal7.111R. Daal
M. Meerdink8.79M. Meerdink

Heerenveen Substitutes

49Anass Bouziane
23D. Bladi
21M. Farji
28H. Petrov88'for Nolhan courtens5.9
29L. Machine
44A. Noppert
11L. Oyen68'for Maxence Rivera6.3
41J. Scholten
30T. Schreuder
14L. Smans74'for Dirk Proper6.2
17R. Uldriķis68'for Dylan Vente6.7

AZ Alkmaar Substitutes

75H. de Wit
14C. Stengs45'for Weslley Pinto Batista6.5
1R. Owusu-Oduro
24A. Oufkir82'for Ro Zangelo Daal83'90+1'7.5
20A. Natali
2S. Maikuma68'for Elijah Dijkstra6.4
18B. Kovacs
71I. Ka
31R. Ichihara
19J. Hornkamp
17V. Byskov64'for Jordy Clasie6.1
34M. de Wit45'for Mateo Chávez5.9

Match Stats

HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
45%Ball Possession55%
4Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal8
3Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box8
4Shots Outside Box7
6Blocked Shots4
9Fouls12
1Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves3
418Total Passes505
345Passes Accurate441
83%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

HeerenveenHeerenveen
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
1756Elo Rating 1797
1.97Attack 1.21
2.33Defense 1.56
86%Hit Rate 17%
12.3Shots per Game 15.8
5.0Shots on Target 5.0
3.9Corners per Game 5.3
1.3Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.05 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

HeerenveenHeerenveen
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HeerenveenHeerenveen2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar6Wins · 60%
3.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Eredivisie12/04/2026
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
30
Eredivisie23/11/2025
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
31
Eredivisie22/05/2025
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
41
Eredivisie02/03/2025
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
31
Eredivisie14/09/2024
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
91
Eredivisie28/01/2024
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
22
Eredivisie21/10/2023
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
30
Eredivisie01/04/2023
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
11
Eredivisie14/01/2023
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
02
Eredivisie22/05/2022
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
20

Recent Form

HeerenveenHeerenveen
4W4D2L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
22/08/2026
HeerenveenPEC Zwolle
02
L
16/08/2026
AjaxHeerenveen
22
D
09/08/2026
HeerenveenTwente
10
W
01/08/2026
HeerenveenVolos NFC
32
W
25/07/2026
HeerenveenOH Leuven
44
D
17/07/2026
Club Brugge KVHeerenveen
23
W
03/07/2026
HeerenveenDe Graafschap
72
W
21/05/2026
UtrechtHeerenveen
32
L
17/05/2026
HeerenveenAjax
00
D
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
8W2D0L
29/08/2026
AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead Eagles
52
W
22/08/2026
Fortuna SittardAZ Alkmaar
02
W
15/08/2026
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
14
W
08/08/2026
AZ AlkmaarADO Den Haag
20
W
02/08/2026
PSV EindhovenAZ Alkmaar
04
W
25/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarOlympiakos Piraeus
32
W
22/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarGenk
40
W
18/07/2026
Zulte WaregemAZ Alkmaar
11
D
11/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarAlmere City FC
21
W
04/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarGent
33
D

Referee Profile

Jeroen Manschot185 matches

3.43Cards per match
3.32Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
19.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jeroen Manschot3.43
Other referees3.18

3.43 cards a match, 0.25 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.18).

Cards come from 183 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1282240:15+2526WWDLW
2FeyenoordFeyenoord1274136:17+1925LDDWW
3AjaxAjax1274132:15+1725DWWWD
4TwenteTwente1273230:12+1824DWWLD
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1272324:16+823WLLDL
6HeerenveenHeerenveen1263324:16+821WWWWL
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1255220:20020DDWDD
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1245324:27-317WLWLD
9GroningenGroningen1243529:28+115LLDLW
10CambuurCambuur1243525:27-215LWWDW
11NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1235420:21-114WLDDD
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1233621:29-812LWLWD
13PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1233613:24-1112DWDWL
14UtrechtUtrecht1233621:34-1312LLDWW
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1232716:29-1311LLLLL
16TelstarTelstar1224618:25-710DWLLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1223716:25-99WLLWD
18Willem IIWillem II1203911:40-293DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1240:1526
2FeyenoordFeyenoord1236:1725
3AjaxAjax1232:1525
4TwenteTwente1230:1224
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1224:1623
6HeerenveenHeerenveen1224:1621
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1220:2020
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1224:2717
9GroningenGroningen1229:2815
10CambuurCambuur1225:2715
11NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1220:2114
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1221:2912
13PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1213:2412
14UtrechtUtrecht1221:3412
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1216:2911
16TelstarTelstar1218:2510
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1216:259
18Willem IIWillem II1211:403
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About the Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie table

AZ Alkmaar and Heerenveen are close in the Eredivisie table, 5th and 6th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Heerenveen 24-16, AZ Alkmaar 24-16. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.