Leeds vs Manchester United Prediction
England · Regular Season - 7
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Leeds vs Manchester United: the result in context
Leeds and Manchester United drew 1-1 in the Premier League on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 9 meetings, with both teams scoring in 7.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Leeds
Avg ratingAvg rating
1J. Trafford
24J. Justin
30N. Elvedi
5T. Muharemović
2J. Bogle
4E. Ampadu
22A. Tanaka
3G. Gudmundsson
18A. Stach
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
1S. Lammens
15L. Yoro
5H. Maguire
6L. Martínez
2D. Dalot
17A. Santos
20C. Baleba
16A. Diallo
18Y. Tielemans
8B. Fernandes
19B. MbeumoLeeds Substitutes
Manchester United Substitutes
Match Stats
LeedsManchester United Team Comparison
LeedsManchester UnitedAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Leeds- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Manchester United- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Leeds1Wins · 11%4Wins · 44%Previous meetings
12/08/2026LeedsManchester United
13/04/2026Manchester UnitedLeeds04/01/2026LeedsManchester United12/02/2023LeedsManchester United08/02/2023Manchester UnitedLeeds20/02/2022LeedsManchester United14/08/2021Manchester UnitedLeeds25/04/2021LeedsManchester United20/12/2020Manchester UnitedLeedsRecent Form
Leeds
ArsenalLeedsLeeds
Crystal PalaceLeeds
Newcastle
ChelseaLeeds
BrightonLeedsLeeds
Brentford
Nottingham ForestLeedsNottingham ForestLeedsLeeds
FC AugsburgLeedsManchester UnitedManchester United
Atletico MadridManchester UnitedManchester United
Tottenham
FulhamManchester UnitedManchester UnitedBrightonManchester United
Manchester CityManchester United
Sabah FA
EvertonManchester UnitedManchester United
Ipswich
Hull CityManchester UnitedManchester United
AC MilanReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
4.42 cards a match, 0.48 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.94).
Cards come from 31 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | +18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 7 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 10 | DLDWD |
| 9 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 10 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 11 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 9 | LDLDD |
| 12 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 13 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 14 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 | LLWLD |
| 15 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:10 | 0 | 7 | DDDLD |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 7 | LWDLW |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 | WLLDD |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 20:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 13:5 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 23:5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 8 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | 9:12 | 11 |
| 7 | Brentford | 7 | 13:8 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 9 | Everton | 8 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 8 | 12:16 | 10 |
| 11 | Hull City | 7 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 12 | Tottenham | 8 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 13 | Fulham | 8 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 7 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 7 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 9:17 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 6:10 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 6:15 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 6:14 | 4 |
Explore more predictions
This match
About the Leeds vs Manchester United forecast
As a derby, this Premier League meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Leeds and Manchester United in the Premier League table
In the Premier League table, Leeds are 8th and Manchester United 15th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Leeds 9-6, Manchester United 10-10. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.