Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction

Chelsea
6-3
Finished
HT 0-1
Leeds
Stamford Bridge, London 09/09/2026
ChelseaChelsea
6-3
Finished
LeedsLeeds

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.17
SignalSOLIDModel60%RiskMediumGap-3.3%
Chelsea Rest
3 days
Leeds Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.50
X
17%4.42
2
21%6.00
Double Chance
1X
78%1.14
X2
38%2.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.67
No
47%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 1.06 = 2.76
Over 1.5
85%1.17
Over 2.5
54%1.57
Over 3.5
36%2.40
Under 1.5
15%4.80
Under 2.5
46%2.37
Under 3.5
64%1.53
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

23'Tarik MuharemovicAssist: Harry Wilson
45+1'Reggie WatsonFoul
45'Reggie Watson INReece James out
45'Malo Gusto INMorgan Rogers out
45'Jamie Gittens INCole Palmer out
45'Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves INPedro Neto out
48'Brenden AaronsonAssist: Lukas Nmecha
53'Cole Palmer(Penalty)
55'Cole PalmerAssist: Morgan Rogers
60'Pedro NetoAssist: Morgan Rogers
65'Danny WelbeckAssist: Morgan Rogers
66'Daniel James INAnton Stach out
66'Lukas Nmecha INDominic Calvert-Lewin out
67'Brenden Aaronson INNoah Okafor out
67'Sean Longstaff INAo Tanaka out
75'Dominic Calvert-LewinAssist: Noah Okafor
76'Levi Colwill INWesley Fofana out
78'Melvin Bard INGabriel Gudmundsson out
80'Valentin Barco
82'Xabier Alonso OlanoDissent
90+4'Danny WelbeckAssist: Valentin Barco

Lineups

Chelsea
3-4-2-1Coach: Xabi Alonso
Leeds
3-4-2-1Coach: D. Farke
M. Penders39M. PendersM. Penders
Joshua Kofi Acheampong34J. Kofi AcheampongJoshua Kofi Acheampong
M. Lacroix5M. LacroixM. Lacroix
L. Colwill6L. ColwillL. Colwill
M. Gusto27M. GustoM. Gusto
R. Watson31R. WatsonR. Watson
V. Barco4V. BarcoV. Barco
Pep Chavarría29P. ChavarríaPep Chavarría
Estêvão41EstêvãoEstêvão
J. Bynoe-Gittens11J. Bynoe-GittensJ. Bynoe-Gittens
D. Welbeck18D. WelbeckD. Welbeck
M. Zetterer16M. ZettererM. Zetterer
J. Justin24J. JustinJ. Justin
J. Bijol15J. BijolJ. Bijol
T. Muharemović5T. MuharemovićT. Muharemović
D. James7D. JamesD. James
E. Ampadu4E. AmpaduE. Ampadu
S. Longstaff8S. LongstaffS. Longstaff
M. Bard26M. BardM. Bard
H. Wilson10H. WilsonH. Wilson
B. Aaronson11B. AaronsonB. Aaronson
L. Nmecha14L. NmechaL. Nmecha

Chelsea Substitutes

23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
17M. RogersM
3W. FofanaD
21J. HatoD
24R. JamesD
9João PedroF
1E. MartínezG
7Pedro NetoF
10C. PalmerM

Leeds Substitutes

2J. BogleD
9D. Calvert-LewinF
30N. ElvediD
3G. GudmundssonD
19N. OkaforF
18A. StachM
22A. TanakaM
1J. TraffordG
23J. BahoyaF

Match Stats

ChelseaLeeds
49%Ball Possession51%
3Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards0
16Total Shots18
8Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box15
7Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots9
6Fouls10
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
480Total Passes490
389Passes Accurate401
10Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

ChelseaChelsea
LeedsLeeds
1843Elo Rating 1882
3.05Attack 2.41
0.89Defense 0.99
54%Hit Rate 41%
15.2Shots per Game 13.9
6.4Shots on Target 5.0
6.2Corners per Game 4.8
1.4Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend59% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ChelseaChelsea
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 1 in first half)
LeedsLeeds
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Chelsea 58%Draw 23%19% Leeds
2.93Avg Goals
59%BTTS Rate
59%Over 2.5

Recent Form

ChelseaChelsea
4W0D1L
06/09/2026
ArsenalChelsea
21
L
30/08/2026
ChelseaBrighton
43
W
27/08/2026
ChelseaLuton
20
W
24/08/2026
FulhamChelsea
23
W
15/08/2026
ChelseaReal Sociedad
31
W
LeedsLeeds
3W2D0L
05/09/2026
BrightonLeeds
11
D
30/08/2026
LeedsBrentford
11
D
25/08/2026
Nottingham ForestLeeds
02
W
22/08/2026
Nottingham ForestLeeds
01
W
15/08/2026
LeedsFC Augsburg
40
W

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction

As a knockout-stage League Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

ScorePredicts covers League Cup across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Leeds have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Chelsea and Leeds have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.93 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.