Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction

Premier LeagueEngland England · Regular Season - 4
Leeds
4-1
Finished
HT 3-0
Newcastle
Elland Road, Leeds 14/09/2026
LeedsLeeds
4-1
Finished
NewcastleNewcastle

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.38
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+3.2%
Leeds Rest
5 days
Newcastle Rest
6 days

Leeds vs Newcastle: the result in context

Leeds beat Newcastle 4-1 in the Premier League on 14 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 8 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.32
X
28%3.45
2
27%3.10
Double Chance
1X
73%1.38
X2
56%1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.60
No
43%2.23
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 1.26 = 2.76
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
55%1.77
Over 3.5
33%2.85
Under 1.5
25%3.90
Under 2.5
45%2.07
Under 3.5
67%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.8 = 10.6
Over 8.5
77%1.33
Over 9.5
62%1.56
Over 10.5
49%1.94
Under 8.5
23%3.00
Under 9.5
38%2.25
Under 10.5
51%1.80
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.80
Over 4.5
38%2.54
Under 3.5
43%2.01
Under 4.5
62%1.49

Match Events

19'Nico González INSean Steur out
32'Lewis MileyOG
34'Jayden BogleAssist: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
44'Dominic Calvert-LewinFoul
45+1'Dominic Calvert-LewinAssist: Tarik Muharemovic
54'Jacob MurphyFoul
57'Jacob Murphy INBazoumana Touré out
57'Matias Fernandez-Pardo INJoe Willock out
58'Amar Dedić INValentino Livramento out
59'Noah Okafor
72'Noah Okafor INHarry Wilson out
72'Ao Tanaka INBrenden Aaronson out
72'Gabriel Gudmundsson INMelvin Bard out
78'Dominic Calvert-Lewin INLukas Nmecha out
80'Lewis Miley INAladji Bamba out
83'Jayden Bogle INDaniel James out
88'Anton Stach INSean Longstaff out
90'Bazoumana TouréAssist: Valentino Livramento
90+1'Valentino LivramentoFoul

Lineups

Leeds
3-5-2Coach: D. Farke
Newcastle
4-2-3-1Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Avg rating6.91
Avg rating5.95
J. Trafford7.51J. Trafford
J. Justin6.424J. Justin
N. Elvedi6.630N. Elvedi
T. Muharemović7.35T. Muharemović
J. Bogle8.02J. Bogle
A. Stach6.618A. Stach
E. Ampadu6.54E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka6.722A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson6.33G. Gudmundsson
D. Calvert-Lewin8.49D. Calvert-Lewin
N. Okafor7.919N. Okafor
L. Horníček5.521L. Horníček
A. Dedić5.237A. Dedić
M. Thiaw5.912M. Thiaw
S. Botman6.34S. Botman
L. Hall6.43L. Hall
L. Miley5.467L. Miley
Nico González5.86N. González
J. Murphy5.523J. Murphy
M. Fernandez-Pardo5.920M. Fernandez-Pardo
H. Barnes6.011H. Barnes
Y. Wissa6.49Y. Wissa

Leeds Substitutes

16M. Zetterer
11B. Aaronson72'for Ao Tanaka6.2
23J. Bahoya
26M. Bard72'for Gabriel Gudmundsson6.4
15J. Bijol
7D. James83'for Jayden Bogle6.9
8S. Longstaff88'for Anton Stach6.3
14L. Nmecha78'for Dominic Calvert-Lewin6.5
10H. Wilson72'for Noah Okafor7.0

Newcastle Substitutes

1N. Pope
2T. Livramento58'for Amar Dedić90+1'5.6
5F. Schär
8A. Bamba80'for Lewis Miley5.8
14Sean Steur19'for Nico González6.2
17B. Touré57'for Jacob Murphy90'7.3
28J. Willock57'for Matias Fernandez-Pardo6.1
41J. Ramsey
76M. Miley

Match Stats

LeedsNewcastle
51%Ball Possession49%
5Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal2
9Shots Inside Box4
5Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots0
8Fouls13
2Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves3
440Total Passes433
368Passes Accurate357
13Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

LeedsLeeds
NewcastleNewcastle
1847Elo Rating 1787
0.36Attack 0.76
1.93Defense 1.31
0%Hit Rate 19%
11.2Shots per Game 18.3
3.3Shots on Target 4.0
3.8Corners per Game 5.7
2.3Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LeedsLeeds
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
NewcastleNewcastle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

LeedsLeeds2Wins · 25%
Draws450%
NewcastleNewcastle2Wins · 25%
3.0Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8

Previous meetings

Premier League07/01/2026
NewcastleLeeds
43
Premier League30/08/2025
LeedsNewcastle
00
Premier League13/05/2023
LeedsNewcastle
22
Premier League31/12/2022
NewcastleLeeds
00
Premier League22/01/2022
LeedsNewcastle
01
Premier League17/09/2021
NewcastleLeeds
11
Premier League26/01/2021
NewcastleLeeds
12
Premier League16/12/2020
LeedsNewcastle
52

Recent Form

LeedsLeeds
7W2D1L
09/09/2026
ChelseaLeeds
63
L05/09/2026
BrightonLeeds
11
D30/08/2026
LeedsBrentford
11
D
25/08/2026
Nottingham ForestLeeds
02
W
22/08/2026
Nottingham ForestLeeds
01
W
15/08/2026
LeedsFC Augsburg
40
W
12/08/2026
LeedsManchester United
5141
W
08/08/2026
LeedsRB Leipzig
20
W
02/08/2026
LiverpoolLeeds
24
W
31/07/2026
SunderlandLeeds
01
W
NewcastleNewcastle
4W2D4L
08/09/2026
MillwallNewcastle
01
W05/09/2026
NewcastleBournemouth
22
D29/08/2026
TottenhamNewcastle
02
W26/08/2026
NewcastleWest Brom
32
W23/08/2026
NewcastleLiverpool
22
D
16/08/2026
NewcastleStrasbourg
2131
L
15/08/2026
NewcastleBayer Leverkusen
12
L
12/08/2026
NewcastleEverton
13
L
08/08/2026
ValenciaNewcastle
12
W
29/07/2026
Bristol CityNewcastle
41
L

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArsenalArsenal1090115:5+1027WWWWW
2BrightonBrighton1071226:7+1922WWLWW
3Manchester CityManchester City1070321:13+821LLLWW
4LiverpoolLiverpool1053214:10+418WLWWL
5ChelseaChelsea1051419:16+316LWLWW
6EvertonEverton1044212:10+216WWLLD
7BournemouthBournemouth1043316:14+215WWWWL
8BrentfordBrentford1035216:11+514LWDLD
9LeedsLeeds1035210:8+214WLDDL
10Aston VillaAston Villa1034314:17-313DDWWD
11TottenhamTottenham1033410:11-112LWWWD
12NewcastleNewcastle1033413:16-312DLWLL
13Hull CityHull City1025311:11011LDDLD
14IpswichIpswich1032515:20-511LDDLW
15FulhamFulham1024410:12-210DDWWL
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest102359:13-49WLDLL
17CoventryCoventry1030710:19-99LWLLW
18Manchester UnitedManchester United1015414:19-58DLLDD
19SunderlandSunderland102268:17-98WLDLL
20Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace1021710:24-147LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1ArsenalArsenal1015:527
2BrightonBrighton1026:722
3Manchester CityManchester City1021:1321
4LiverpoolLiverpool1014:1018
5ChelseaChelsea1019:1616
6EvertonEverton1012:1016
7BournemouthBournemouth1016:1415
8BrentfordBrentford1016:1114
9LeedsLeeds1010:814
10Aston VillaAston Villa1014:1713
11TottenhamTottenham1010:1112
12NewcastleNewcastle1013:1612
13Hull CityHull City1011:1111
14IpswichIpswich1015:2011
15FulhamFulham1010:1210
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest109:139
17CoventryCoventry1010:199
18Manchester UnitedManchester United1014:198
19SunderlandSunderland108:178
20Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace1010:247
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

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About the Leeds vs Newcastle forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Leeds and Newcastle in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Leeds are 9th and Newcastle 12th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Leeds 10-8, Newcastle 13-16. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.