Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

Lille
2-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Paris Saint Germain
Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille· Eric Wattellier, France 28/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 5.5
1.71
SignalGOODModel47%RiskMediumGap+9.6%
Lille Rest
5 days
Paris Saint Germain Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
26%5.15
X
28%3.90
2
46%1.67
Double Chance
1X
53%2.15
X2
74%1.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.74
No
39%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 1.59 = 3.02
Over 1.5
83%1.22
Over 2.5
59%1.78
Over 3.5
35%2.90
Under 1.5
17%4.00
Under 2.5
41%2.05
Under 3.5
65%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.2 + 4.7 = 8.9
Over 8.5
58%1.53
Over 9.5
46%1.92
Over 10.5
34%2.42
Under 8.5
42%2.30
Under 9.5
54%1.82
Under 10.5
66%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.3 = 3.9
Over 3.5
56%2.25
Over 4.5
31%3.40
Under 3.5
44%1.56
Under 4.5
69%1.25

Match Events

21'H. HaraldssonAssist: O. Giroud
39'F. RuizUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'D. Doue INK. Kvaratskhelia out
52'B. AndreHolding
61'B. Andre INN. Mukau out
61'F. Correia ING. Perrin out
63'L. Beraldo INM. Godts out
68'E. Mbappe IND. Bakwa out
72'F. Torres INS. Mayulu out
72'F. Ruiz INL. Digne out
78'M. Akliouche IND. Fernandez out
80'H. Haraldsson INC. Verdonk out
84'D. BakwaAssist: O. Giroud
90+1'VitinhaAssist: M. Godts
90+4'R. PerraudUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'MarquinhosAssist: Vitinha

Lineups

Lille
4-2-3-1Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Enrique Luis
Berke Özer1B. ÖzerBerke Özer
Tiago Santos22T. SantosTiago Santos
Nathan Ngoy3N. NgoyNathan Ngoy
Alexsandro Ribeiro4A. RibeiroAlexsandro Ribeiro
Romain Perraud15R. PerraudRomain Perraud
Benjamin André21B. AndréBenjamin André
Nabil Bentaleb6N. BentalebNabil Bentaleb
Ethan Mbappé8E. MbappéEthan Mbappé
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson10H. Arnar HaraldssonHakon Arnar Haraldsson
Félix Correia27F. CorreiaFélix Correia
Olivier Giroud9O. GiroudOlivier Giroud
Matvey Safonov39M. SafonovMatvey Safonov
Achraf Hakimi2A. HakimiAchraf Hakimi
Marquinhos5MarquinhosMarquinhos
Willian Pacho51W. PachoWillian Pacho
Warren Zaïre-Emery33W. Zaïre-EmeryWarren Zaïre-Emery
Vitinha17VitinhaVitinha
Lucas Beraldo4L. BeraldoLucas Beraldo
Fabián Ruiz8F. RuizFabián Ruiz
Maghnes Akliouche11M. AklioucheMaghnes Akliouche
Ferran Torres9F. TorresFerran Torres
Désiré Doué14D. DouéDésiré Doué

Lille Substitutes

17Ngal'ayel MukauM
28Gaëtan PerrinF
18Dilane BakwaF
16Arnaud BodartG
26Isaac CossierD
24Calvin VerdonkD
19Başar ÖnalF
11Osame SahraouiF
35Soriba DiaouneF

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

7Khvicha KvaratskheliaF
22Mika GodtsF
12Lucas DigneD
24Senny MayuluM
16Alessandro LongoniG
30Lucas ChevalierG
21Lucas HernándezD
6Ilya ZabarnyiD
27Dro FernándezM

Match Stats

LilleParis Saint Germain
27%Ball Possession73%
0Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal13
5Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box11
1Blocked Shots1
11Fouls7
5Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
297Total Passes810
249Passes Accurate735
84%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

LilleLille
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
1842Elo Rating 1960
1.81Attack 2.45
1.98Defense 1.77
61%Hit Rate 50%
9.6Shots per Game 22.2
4.8Shots on Target 8.4
2.5Corners per Game 5.5
1.1Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy3.03 goals
📈BTTS Trend73% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LilleLille
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Lille 0%Draw 23%77% Paris Saint Germain
3.47Avg Goals
73%BTTS Rate
77%Over 2.5

Recent Form

LilleLille
3W2D0L
23/08/2026
AngersLille
02
W
15/08/2026
EvertonLille
11
D
08/08/2026
Hamburger SVLille
22
D
01/08/2026
OH LeuvenLille
36
W
18/07/2026
LilleRAAL La Louvière
30
W
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
1W2D2L
23/08/2026
RennesParis Saint Germain
22
D
16/08/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
10
L
12/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
21
W
08/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainManchester United
11
D
05/08/2026
MallorcaParis Saint Germain
30
L

Referee Profile

Eric Wattellier, France · 18 matches analysed

3.4Avg Yellows
3.6Avg Cards
21.4Avg Fouls
Stricter than 3% of referees analysed

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LilleLille43107:2+510WWDW
2MonacoMonaco43106:2+410DWWW
3RennesRennes43108:5+310WWWD
4LyonLyon42206:2+48DWDW
5Paris FCParis FC42206:2+48DWWD
6StrasbourgStrasbourg42119:8+17DWWL
7Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 2941216:605LWDD
8Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain41216:605WLDD
9LorientLorient41214:405DWLD
10LensLens41128:7+14DLLW
11AngersAngers41124:5-14DLWL
12Estac TroyesEstac Troyes41124:9-54LLWD
13MarseilleMarseille41036:603LLLW
14Le MansLe Mans40317:8-13DDLD
15AuxerreAuxerre41035:11-63WLLL
16Le HavreLe Havre40222:4-22DLDL
17ToulouseToulouse40224:7-32DLDL
18NiceNice40221:5-42LDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1LilleLille47:210
2MonacoMonaco46:210
3RennesRennes48:510
4LyonLyon46:28
5Paris FCParis FC46:28
6StrasbourgStrasbourg49:87
7Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 2946:65
8Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain46:65
9LorientLorient44:45
10LensLens48:74
11AngersAngers44:54
12Estac TroyesEstac Troyes44:94
13MarseilleMarseille46:63
14Le MansLe Mans47:83
15AuxerreAuxerre45:113
16Le HavreLe Havre42:42
17ToulouseToulouse44:72
18NiceNice41:52
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Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Ligue 1 fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Ligue 1

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Key Factors for This Match

Lille have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lille and Paris Saint Germain have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.47 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.