Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

UEFA Champions LeagueWorld World · League Stage - 1
Cup
Liverpool
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Atletico Madrid
Anfield, Liverpool·D. Massa 09/09/2026
LiverpoolLiverpool
2-1
Finished
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.41
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+3.8%
Liverpool Rest
5 days
Atletico Madrid Rest
4 days

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: the result in context

Liverpool beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the UEFA Champions League on 9 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Atletico Madrid had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Liverpool.

Liverpool have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.8 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.75
X
22%4.00
2
22%4.42
Double Chance
1X
78%1.20
X2
44%2.09
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.53
No
45%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.85 + 1.16 = 3.01
Over 1.5
76%1.16
Over 2.5
56%1.53
Over 3.5
36%2.38
Under 1.5
24%5.00
Under 2.5
44%2.40
Under 3.5
64%1.59
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 3.3 = 8.6
Over 8.5
52%1.60
Over 9.5
41%2.01
Over 10.5
32%2.60
Under 8.5
48%2.19
Under 9.5
59%1.71
Under 10.5
68%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.8 = 3.6
Over 3.5
49%1.81
Over 4.5
30%2.66
Under 3.5
51%1.94
Under 4.5
70%1.41

Match Events

17'Marcos LlorenteAssist: Julián Álvarez
28'Alexis Mac AllisterFoul
40'Dominik SzoboszlaiAssist: Ronald Araujo
50'Alexis Mac AllisterAssist: Alexander Isak
51'Marc PubillFoul
59'Lee Kang-In INAlejandro Grimaldo out
59'Koke INAdemola Lookman out
60'Rio Ngumoha INJeremie Frimpong out
60'Bradley Barcola INVíctor Muñoz out
69'Alexis Mac Allister INRyan Gravenberch out
73'Alejandro Baena Rodríguez INJonathan David out
77'Cristian Romero INRobin Le Normand out
77'Pablo Barrios Rivas INMorten Hjulmand out
88'Alexander Isak INLewis Koumas out
88'Milos Kerkez INKonstantinos Tsimikas out

Lineups

Liverpool
4-2-3-1Coach: Andoni Iraola
Atletico Madrid
3-4-2-1Coach: D. Simeone
Avg rating6.70
Avg rating6.53
Alisson Becker6.81A. Becker
R. Araújo6.733R. Araújo
J. Jacquet6.65J. Jacquet
V. van Dijk6.74V. van Dijk
M. Kerkez6.86M. Kerkez
D. Szoboszlai8.28D. Szoboszlai
A. Mac Allister7.610A. Mac Allister
B. Barcola5.629B. Barcola
F. Wirtz6.97F. Wirtz
R. Ngumoha6.373R. Ngumoha
A. Isak6.99A. Isak
J. Oblak6.113J. Oblak
Marc Pubill5.818M. Pubill
C. Romero7.021C. Romero
D. Hancko6.217D. Hancko
Marcos Llorente7.414M. Llorente
Pablo Barrios6.88P. Barrios
Koke6.66Koke
G. Simeone6.220G. Simeone
Lee Kang-In6.37L. Kang-In
Álex Baena6.610Á. Baena
J. Álvarez7.519J. Álvarez

Liverpool Substitutes

44L. Chambers
76J. Danns
30J. Frimpong60'for Rio Ngumoha6.1
38R. Gravenberch69'for Alexis Mac Allister6.1
67L. Koumas88'for Alexander Isak6.5
25G. Mamardashvili
53J. McConnell
23Víctor Muñoz60'for Bradley Barcola7.0
42T. Nyoni
21K. Tsimikas88'for Milos Kerkez6.3
28F. Woodman

Atletico Madrid Substitutes

3O. Vargas
1J. Musso
4Rodrigo Mendoza
11A. Lookman59'for Koke6.3
24Robin Le Normand77'for Cristian Romero6.5
23M. Hjulmand77'for Pablo Barrios Rivas6.1
22Álex Grimaldo59'for Lee Kang-In6.7
27J. Dominguez
15J. David73'for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez6.4
5J. Cardoso
46J. Castillo
30Dani Martínez

Match Stats

LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
45%Ball Possession55%
7Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots9
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box4
2Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots1
11Fouls10
3Offsides5
3Goalkeeper Saves3
419Total Passes515
354Passes Accurate438
84%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

LiverpoolLiverpool
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
1954Elo Rating 1948
2.68Attack 1.31
1.56Defense 2.63
73%Hit Rate 77%
17.1Shots per Game 16.3
5.5Shots on Target 4.7
7.2Corners per Game 5.8
1.0Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

LiverpoolLiverpool
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 1.1 in second half)
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

LiverpoolLiverpool4Wins · 80%
Draws00%
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1Wins · 20%
2.8Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

UEFA Champions League17/09/2025
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
32
UEFA Champions League03/11/2021
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
20
UEFA Champions League19/10/2021
Atletico MadridLiverpool
23
UEFA Champions League11/03/2020
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
2130
UEFA Champions League18/02/2020
Atletico MadridLiverpool
10

Recent Form

LiverpoolLiverpool
3W4D3L
04/09/2026
IpswichLiverpool
02
W
29/08/2026
LiverpoolNottingham Forest
22
D23/08/2026
NewcastleLiverpool
22
D
16/08/2026
LiverpoolComo
00
D
09/08/2026
LiverpoolMonaco
23
L
02/08/2026
LiverpoolLeeds
24
L
30/07/2026
LiverpoolWrexham
10
W
26/07/2026
LiverpoolSunderland
42
W
24/05/2026
LiverpoolBrentford
11
D
15/05/2026
Aston VillaLiverpool
42
L
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
6W1D3L
05/09/2026
Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid
30
L29/08/2026
SevillaAtletico Madrid
13
W23/08/2026
Atletico MadridVillarreal
22
D19/08/2026
Atletico MadridMalaga
20
W
14/08/2026
MarseilleAtletico Madrid
12
W
09/08/2026
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid
31
L
01/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid
21
L
29/07/2026
Atletico MadridGetafe
41
W
17/05/2026
Atletico MadridGirona
10
W
12/05/2026
OsasunaAtletico Madrid
12
W

Referee Profile

D. Massa222 matches

4.77Cards per match
4.56Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

D. Massa4.77
Other referees4.42

4.77 cards a match, 0.35 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.42).

Cards come from 212 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Champions League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain330014:5+99WWW
2Aston VillaAston Villa330012:3+99WWW
3LiverpoolLiverpool330012:7+59WWW
4Real MadridReal Madrid330010:5+59WWW
5Real BetisReal Betis33007:4+39WWW
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart32107:2+57DWW
7ArsenalArsenal32106:2+47DWW
8BarcelonaBarcelona320111:6+56LWW
9ComoComo320110:5+56WLW
10Manchester CityManchester City32019:5+46WLW
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV32019:6+36WWL
12Sporting CPSporting CP32017:4+36LWW
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund32015:4+16WLW
14Bayern MünchenBayern München312010:5+55DDW
15AS RomaAS Roma31118:5+34WLD
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid31114:3+14DWL
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk31114:3+14LWD
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven31112:204WLD
19VillarrealVillarreal31028:803LWL
20InterInter31025:6-13WLL
21Manchester UnitedManchester United31025:6-13LLW
22NapoliNapoli31025:7-23WLL
23GalatasarayGalatasaray31026:9-33WLL
24Lask LinzLask Linz31026:9-33WLL
25Sabah FASabah FA31023:6-33LWL
26FeyenoordFeyenoord31024:8-43LWL
27LensLens31023:7-43LLW
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt31024:9-53LWL
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC31023:8-53LLW
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig31023:8-53LWL
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe30213:9-62DLD
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha30124:7-31DLL
33VikingViking30125:9-41LDL
34FC PortoFC Porto30032:6-40LLL
35LilleLille30034:10-60LLL
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava30031:13-120LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain314:59
2Aston VillaAston Villa312:39
3LiverpoolLiverpool312:79
4Real MadridReal Madrid310:59
5Real BetisReal Betis37:49
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart37:27
7ArsenalArsenal36:27
8BarcelonaBarcelona311:66
9ComoComo310:56
10Manchester CityManchester City39:56
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV39:66
12Sporting CPSporting CP37:46
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund35:46
14Bayern MünchenBayern München310:55
15AS RomaAS Roma38:54
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid34:34
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk34:34
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven32:24
19VillarrealVillarreal38:83
20InterInter35:63
21Manchester UnitedManchester United35:63
22NapoliNapoli35:73
23GalatasarayGalatasaray36:93
24Lask LinzLask Linz36:93
25Sabah FASabah FA33:63
26FeyenoordFeyenoord34:83
27LensLens33:73
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt34:93
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC33:83
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig33:83
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe33:92
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha34:71
33VikingViking35:91
34FC PortoFC Porto32:60
35LilleLille34:100
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava31:130

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About the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League table

In the UEFA Champions League table, Liverpool are 3rd and Atletico Madrid 16th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Liverpool 12-7, Atletico Madrid 4-3. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.