Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

Newcastle
2-2
Finished
HT 1-2
Bournemouth
St. James' Park, Newcastle·Robert Jones, England 05/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.74
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+9.4%
Newcastle Rest
6 days
Bournemouth Rest
6 days

Newcastle vs Bournemouth: result, form and history

Newcastle and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League on 5 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.15
X
28%3.65
2
34%3.25
Double Chance
1X
66%1.35
X2
62%1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.50
No
35%2.49
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 1.42 = 2.92
Over 1.5
83%1.17
Over 2.5
61%1.59
Over 3.5
37%2.43
Under 1.5
17%4.70
Under 2.5
39%2.36
Under 3.5
63%1.56
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.4 = 10.6
Over 8.5
67%1.25
Over 9.5
59%1.45
Over 10.5
53%1.77
Under 8.5
33%3.40
Under 9.5
41%2.52
Under 10.5
47%1.95
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.3 = 4
Over 3.5
56%1.48
Over 4.5
37%2.01
Under 3.5
44%2.45
Under 4.5
63%1.74

Match Events

9'M. Tavernier
28'Anthony ElangaFoul
35'M. ThiawOG
37'H. BarnesAssist: L. Hall
57'Yoane WissaArgument
63'L. Miley INJ. Ramsey out
63'J. Willock INM. Fernandez-Pardo out
66'Justin KluivertFoul
76'T. Adams INL. Cook out
76'J. Kluivert IND. Brooks out
77'Nico INS. Steur out
77'A. Elanga INJ. Murphy out
87'Adrien TruffertFoul
88'J. Ramsey
89'M. Tavernier IND. Jebbison out
89'Rayan INB. Gannon-Doak out
90'L. Hall INV. Livramento out
90+4'Adam SmithFoul
90+6'A. Scott INR. Christie out

Lineups

Newcastle
4-2-3-1Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1Coach: Marco Rose
Avg rating6.72
Avg rating6.64
L. Hornicek7.921L. Hornicek
A. Dedic6.237A. Dedic
M. ThiawC5.912M. Thiaw
S. Botman6.74S. Botman
L. Hall6.63L. Hall
Nico6.56Nico
L. Miley6.367L. Miley
A. Elanga6.619A. Elanga
J. Willock6.528J. Willock
H. Barnes7.711H. Barnes
Y. Wissa6.99Y. Wissa
D. Petrovic6.51D. Petrovic
A. SmithC6.315A. Smith
J. Hill6.25J. Hill
A. Silva6.914A. Silva
A. Truffert6.23A. Truffert
T. Adams7.212T. Adams
A. Scott6.78A. Scott
Rayan6.337Rayan
J. Kluivert6.219J. Kluivert
M. Tavernier8.216M. Tavernier
Evanilson6.79Evanilson

Newcastle Substitutes

1N. Pope
5F. Schar
2V. Livramento90'for L. Hall
41J. Ramsey63'for L. Miley88'7.3
8A. Bamba
17B. Toure
14S. Steur77'for Nico6.6
23J. Murphy77'for A. Elanga6.6
20M. Fernandez-Pardo63'for J. Willock6.5

Bournemouth Substitutes

20M. Di Gregorio
18B. Diakite
24J. Sanchez
6J. Soler
10R. Christie90+6'for A. Scott
4L. Cook76'for T. Adams6.3
7D. Brooks76'for J. Kluivert6.5
29D. Jebbison89'for M. Tavernier6.7
11B. Gannon-Doak89'for Rayan6.7

Match Stats

NewcastleBournemouth
58%Ball Possession42%
4Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards3
8Total Shots17
2Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal5
5Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box8
2Blocked Shots7
19Fouls17
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves0
459Total Passes335
377Passes Accurate256
82%Pass Accuracy76%

Team Comparison

NewcastleNewcastle
BournemouthBournemouth
1805Elo Rating 1940
1.18Attack 2.83
1.19Defense 3.00
37%Hit Rate 100%
17.8Shots per Game 19.4
4.8Shots on Target 6.1
5.9Corners per Game 5.5
3.0Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.91 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

NewcastleNewcastle
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
BournemouthBournemouth
  • Leads at half-time in 100% of matches

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

NewcastleNewcastle1Wins · 10%
Draws660%
BournemouthBournemouth3Wins · 30%
2.5Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League18/04/2026
NewcastleBournemouth
12
FA Cup10/01/2026
NewcastleBournemouth
7262
Premier League21/09/2025
BournemouthNewcastle
00
Premier League18/01/2025
NewcastleBournemouth
14
Premier League25/08/2024
BournemouthNewcastle
11
Premier League17/02/2024
NewcastleBournemouth
22
Premier League11/11/2023
BournemouthNewcastle
20
Premier League11/02/2023
BournemouthNewcastle
11
League Cup20/12/2022
NewcastleBournemouth
10
Premier League17/09/2022
NewcastleBournemouth
11

Recent Form

NewcastleNewcastle
4W2D4L
29/08/2026
TottenhamNewcastle
02
W
26/08/2026
NewcastleWest Brom
32
W
23/08/2026
NewcastleLiverpool
22
D
16/08/2026
NewcastleStrasbourg
2131
L
15/08/2026
NewcastleBayer Leverkusen
12
L
12/08/2026
NewcastleEverton
13
L
08/08/2026
ValenciaNewcastle
12
W
29/07/2026
Bristol CityNewcastle
41
L
25/07/2026
GatesheadNewcastle
11
D
18/07/2026
NewcastleDarlington 1883
30
W
BournemouthBournemouth
4W4D2L
29/08/2026
BournemouthEverton
11
D
23/08/2026
Manchester CityBournemouth
21
L
15/08/2026
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth
21
L
08/08/2026
Real BetisBournemouth
22
D
04/08/2026
BournemouthGenoa
101
W
30/07/2026
FC AugsburgBournemouth
25
W
24/07/2026
BournemouthFC St. Pauli
41
W
24/05/2026
Nottingham ForestBournemouth
11
D
19/05/2026
BournemouthManchester City
11
D
09/05/2026
FulhamBournemouth
01
W

Referee Profile

Robert Jones184 matches

3.89Cards per match
3.81Yellow cards per match
0.08Red cards per match
22.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Robert Jones3.89
Other referees3.86

3.89 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.86).

Cards come from 177 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArsenalArsenal980114:5+924WWWWL
2Manchester CityManchester City970220:10+1021LLWWW
3BrightonBrighton961224:7+1719WLWWW
4ChelseaChelsea951319:15+416WLWWL
5LiverpoolLiverpool943211:9+215LWWLW
6BrentfordBrentford935116:9+714WDLDW
7BournemouthBournemouth933314:13+112WWWLL
8TottenhamTottenham933310:10012WWWDL
9Aston VillaAston Villa933310:13-312DWWDW
10Hull CityHull City925211:10+111DDLDL
11LeedsLeeds92529:8+111LDDLD
12NewcastleNewcastle832312:14-211WLLWL
13IpswichIpswich932414:18-411DDLWL
14EvertonEverton82428:9-110LLDWD
15FulhamFulham92349:11-29DWWLD
16CoventryCoventry93069:16-79WLLWW
17Manchester UnitedManchester United914410:15-57LLDDD
18Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace92169:21-127LLLWD
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest91356:12-66LDLLL
20SunderlandSunderland91267:17-105LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArsenalArsenal914:524
2Manchester CityManchester City920:1021
3BrightonBrighton924:719
4ChelseaChelsea919:1516
5LiverpoolLiverpool911:915
6BrentfordBrentford916:914
7BournemouthBournemouth914:1312
8TottenhamTottenham910:1012
9Aston VillaAston Villa910:1312
10Hull CityHull City911:1011
11LeedsLeeds99:811
12NewcastleNewcastle812:1411
13IpswichIpswich914:1811
14EvertonEverton88:910
15FulhamFulham99:119
16CoventryCoventry99:169
17Manchester UnitedManchester United910:157
18Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace99:217
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest96:126
20SunderlandSunderland97:175
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Newcastle vs Bournemouth forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Newcastle and Bournemouth in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Bournemouth are 7th and Newcastle 12th, 1 point apart. League goal record so far: Newcastle 12-14, Bournemouth 14-13. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Bournemouth have led at half-time in 100% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.