Puebla vs Leon Prediction

Liga MXMexico Mexico · Apertura - 11
Puebla
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Leon
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla·Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina 10/10/2026
PueblaPuebla
1-1
Finished
LeonLeon

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.61
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.8%
Puebla Rest
12 days
Leon Rest
12 days

Puebla vs Leon: the result in context

Puebla and Leon drew 1-1 in the Liga MX on 10 Oct 2026. Leon had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for Puebla.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%2.87
X
28%3.30
2
38%2.38
Double Chance
1X
62%1.52
X2
66%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.67
No
44%2.06
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 1.47 = 2.71
Over 1.5
75%1.29
Over 2.5
51%1.92
Over 3.5
30%3.25
Under 1.5
25%3.50
Under 2.5
49%1.88
Under 3.5
70%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.3 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.33
Over 9.5
48%1.58
Over 10.5
35%1.99
Under 8.5
42%2.90
Under 9.5
52%2.21
Under 10.5
65%1.79
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%1.39
Over 4.5
39%1.73
Under 3.5
41%2.87
Under 4.5
61%2.00

Match Events

42'Ismael DíazAssist: Diber Cambindo
46'Jesús LaraFoul
56'Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges INIgnacio Maestro out
56'L. Hernández INEduardo Mustre out
57'Fernando Beltran INJordi Cortizo out
57'Ismael Díaz INDaniel Arcila out
57'Jesús Lara INRodrigo Echeverría out
66'Omar Moreno INHeriberto Jurado out
70'Edgar Guerra INJuan Dominguez out
80'Heriberto JuradoFoul
80'Fernando Monarrez INOscar Villa out
81'Alejandro Organista INEduardo Armenta out
85'Diber Cambindo INJose Alvarado out
87'Eduardo ArmentaAssist: Juan Pablo Vargas
90+1'Jordi CortizoViolent conduct

Lineups

Puebla
4-2-3-1Coach: Gerardo Espinoza
Leon
4-1-4-1Coach: J. Gandolfi
Avg rating6.78
Avg rating6.64
R. Gutiérrez6.628R. Gutiérrez
I. Moreno6.812I. Moreno
F. Almada6.45F. Almada
J. Vargas7.54J. Vargas
F. Monárrez6.77F. Monárrez
A. Organista6.624A. Organista
A. Ramírez6.716A. Ramírez
B. Garnica6.527B. Garnica
M. Tomás7.110M. Tomás
O. Moreno6.98O. Moreno
L. Hernández7.29L. Hernández
181181I. Martínez
I. Moreno6.17I. Moreno
J. Romaña6.714J. Romaña
Juan José Guevara Possu6.93J. José Guevara Possu
S. Reyes6.426S. Reyes
J. Rodríguez7.029J. Rodríguez
E. Guerra6.918E. Guerra
J. Lara6.4203J. Lara
F. Beltrán6.66F. Beltrán
I. Díaz7.511I. Díaz
D. Cambindo6.927D. Cambindo

Puebla Substitutes

15Ó. Villa80'for Fernando Monarrez6.3
25H. Jurado66'for Omar Moreno80'6.4
3A. Herrera
14E. Armenta81'for Alejandro Organista87'7.8
2Á. Leyva
19I. Maestro Puch56'for Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges6.4
29E. Mustre56'for L. Hernández6.8
20J. Pachuca
33J. Rodríguez

Leon Substitutes

25P. Bellón
4B. Colula
16J. Cortizo57'for Fernando Beltran90+1'5.4
8J. Domínguez70'for Edgar Guerra6.5
20R. Echeverría57'for Jesús Lara6.3
23Ó. García
5S. Vegas
33A. Villegas
13D. Arcila57'for Ismael Díaz6.7
19J. Alvarado85'for Diber Cambindo6.5

Match Stats

PueblaLeon
52%Ball Possession48%
6Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
18Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box7
11Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots2
6Fouls10
4Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves5
442Total Passes422
382Passes Accurate357
10Free Kicks4

Team Comparison

PueblaPuebla
LeonLeon
1515Elo Rating 1663
0.39Attack 1.89
2.27Defense 1.35
0%Hit Rate 44%
12.1Shots per Game 11.5
3.3Shots on Target 5.0
4.0Corners per Game 4.2
1.3Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PueblaPuebla
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
LeonLeon
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

PueblaPuebla3Wins · 30%
Draws220%
LeonLeon5Wins · 50%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX11/04/2026
PueblaLeon
01
Liga MX09/11/2025
LeonPuebla
12
Liga MX13/04/2025
LeonPuebla
10
Liga MX17/07/2024
PueblaLeon
22
Liga MX17/03/2024
LeonPuebla
21
Liga MX04/11/2023
PueblaLeon
54
Liga MX15/02/2023
LeonPuebla
20
Liga MX16/07/2022
PueblaLeon
11
Liga MX17/04/2022
LeonPuebla
01
Liga MX29/11/2021
LeonPuebla
20

Recent Form

PueblaPuebla
3W1D6L
27/09/2026
Tigres UANLPuebla
10
L19/09/2026
PueblaAtlante FC
11
D16/09/2026
PueblaToluca
01
L12/09/2026
NecaxaPuebla
01
W30/08/2026
Club AmericaPuebla
20
L23/08/2026
PueblaSantos Laguna
32
W18/08/2026
CF PachucaPuebla
23
W
13/08/2026
San DiegoPuebla
32
L
10/08/2026
AustinPuebla
30
L
07/08/2026
Portland TimbersPuebla
52
L
LeonLeon
6W2D2L
28/09/2026
LeonFC Juarez
21
W21/09/2026
Club QueretaroLeon
11
D15/09/2026
LeonAtletico San Luis
20
W
11/09/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasLeon
31
L
07/09/2026
LeonClub America
10
W
03/09/2026
TolucaLeon
20
L
29/08/2026
Atlante FCLeon
11
D
26/08/2026
LeonReal Salt Lake
30
W
22/08/2026
LeonMonterrey
20
W
18/08/2026
NecaxaLeon
12
W

Referee Profile

Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina96 matches

4.61Cards per match
4.33Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
21.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina4.61
Other referees4.68

4.61 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.68).

Cards come from 51 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1283132:16+1627WWDWD
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1365220:12+823WDDLD
3Cruz AzulCruz Azul1372429:22+723WWDDL
4TolucaToluca1364328:18+1022DDLDL
5LeonLeon1363420:17+321WLDWD
6AtlasAtlas1363421:23-221LWDWD
7MonterreyMonterrey1262423:17+620WWDLW
8Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1262416:15+120LLWWD
9Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1361619:16+319WWWWW
10Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1245317:16+117DDDLD
11U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1344519:22-316LWDLD
12Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1344518:22-416WDLWW
13PueblaPuebla1344513:17-416LDDLD
14Tigres UANLTigres UANL1335514:18-414LDWWL
15Atlante FCAtlante FC1335514:19-514WLLWD
16CF PachucaCF Pachuca1334620:18+213LLDLD
17NecaxaNecaxa1323815:26-119LLDLL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1311118:32-244LLDLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1232:1627
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1320:1223
3Cruz AzulCruz Azul1329:2223
4TolucaToluca1328:1822
5LeonLeon1320:1721
6AtlasAtlas1321:2321
7MonterreyMonterrey1223:1720
8Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1216:1520
9Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1319:1619
10Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1217:1617
11U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1319:2216
12Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1318:2216
13PueblaPuebla1313:1716
14Tigres UANLTigres UANL1314:1814
15Atlante FCAtlante FC1314:1914
16CF PachucaCF Pachuca1320:1813
17NecaxaNecaxa1315:269
18FC JuarezFC Juarez138:324
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About the Puebla vs Leon forecast

The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Puebla and Leon in the Liga MX table

In the Liga MX table, Leon are 5th and Puebla 13th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Puebla 13-17, Leon 20-17. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.