Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction

Necaxa
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Puebla
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes 12/09/2026
NecaxaNecaxa
0-1
Finished
PueblaPuebla

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalSOLIDModel48%RiskMediumGap-2.9%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.80
SignalSTRONGModel65%RiskMediumGap+10.8%
Necaxa Rest
6 days
Puebla Rest
12 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%2.01
X
25%3.55
2
25%3.40
Double Chance
1X
75%1.29
X2
50%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.60
No
42%2.22
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.11 = 2.62
Over 1.5
74%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.70
Over 3.5
34%2.70
Under 1.5
26%4.05
Under 2.5
44%2.12
Under 3.5
66%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.5 = 10.5
Over 8.5
65%1.48
Over 9.5
53%1.83
Over 10.5
40%2.29
Under 8.5
35%2.41
Under 9.5
47%1.84
Under 10.5
60%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
54%1.47
Over 4.5
35%1.85
Under 3.5
46%2.45
Under 4.5
65%1.80

Match Events

45+1'Juan Pablo VargasArgument
45+1'Raúl MartínezArgument
45+1'Fernando MonarrezArgument
45'Owen González INKevin Ante out
45'Mauro Zaleta INMiguel Rodriguez out
45'Omar Moreno INIgnacio Maestro out
45'Fernando Monarrez INOscar Villa out
49'Carlos BaltazarFoul
62'Kevin Velasco INMathías Adrián Tomás Borges out
68'Matias Espindola INJuan Torres out
75'Lorenzo Faravelli INDanny Leyva out
81'Brayan Garnica INLucas Camilo Azevedo da Silva out
86'Pedro Pedraza INJuan Valencia out
89'Carlos Baltazar INJosé Pachuca out
90+3'Mathías Adrián Tomás BorgesAssist: Alejandro Organista

Lineups

Necaxa
3-4-2-1Coach: M. Varini
Puebla
4-2-3-1Coach: Gerardo Espinoza
L. Jiménez12L. JiménezL. Jiménez
R. Martínez33R. MartínezR. Martínez
Kaiky Naves5K. NavesKaiky Naves
A. Oliveros3A. OliverosA. Oliveros
Owen de Jesús González Ojeda13O. de Jesús González OjedaOwen de Jesús González Ojeda
P. Pedraza16P. PedrazaP. Pedraza
L. Faravelli8L. FaravelliL. Faravelli
M. Zaleta14M. ZaletaM. Zaleta
M. Espíndola21M. EspíndolaM. Espíndola
J. Ruiz10J. RuizJ. Ruiz
J. Carranza9J. CarranzaJ. Carranza
R. Gutiérrez28R. GutiérrezR. Gutiérrez
I. Moreno12I. MorenoI. Moreno
F. Almada5F. AlmadaF. Almada
J. Vargas4J. VargasJ. Vargas
F. Monárrez7F. MonárrezF. Monárrez
A. Organista24A. OrganistaA. Organista
S. Sanabria21S. SanabriaS. Sanabria
B. Garnica27B. GarnicaB. Garnica
K. Velasco26K. VelascoK. Velasco
C. Baltazar22C. BaltazarC. Baltazar
O. Moreno8O. MorenoO. Moreno

Necaxa Substitutes

7K. RoseroF
1C. AndradeG
88C. VargasD
17R. CortézM
6D. LeyvaM
20F. MéndezD
4A. PeñaD
99M. RodríguezM
11J. TorresM
90J. ValenciaF

Puebla Substitutes

34Lucas CamiloM
3A. HerreraM
2Á. LeyvaD
19I. Maestro PuchF
20J. PachucaD
16A. RamírezM
33J. RodríguezG
10M. TomásM
15Ó. VillaD
195Alvaro BurgosD

Match Stats

NecaxaPuebla
56%Ball Possession44%
8Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
9Total Shots12
2Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal5
7Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
11Fouls12
1Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
429Total Passes340
372Passes Accurate281
87%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

NecaxaNecaxa
PueblaPuebla
1536Elo Rating 1512
0.73Attack 0.89
1.47Defense 1.89
0%Hit Rate 34%
12.2Shots per Game 14.6
3.2Shots on Target 4.3
5.6Corners per Game 6.1
1.7Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

NecaxaNecaxa
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PueblaPuebla
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.1 in first half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Necaxa 73%Draw 27%0% Puebla
1.67Avg Goals
31%BTTS Rate
31%Over 2.5

Recent Form

NecaxaNecaxa
1W2D2L
06/09/2026
Tigres UANLNecaxa
11
D
29/08/2026
NecaxaCruz Azul
13
L
24/08/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasNecaxa
11
D
18/08/2026
NecaxaLeon
12
L
14/08/2026
New York City FCNecaxa
12
W
PueblaPuebla
2W0D3L

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Necaxa and Puebla have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.67 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.