Puebla vs Toluca Prediction

Puebla
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Toluca
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla· A. Escobedo Gonzalez 16/09/2026
PueblaPuebla
0-1
Finished
TolucaToluca

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.73
SignalHIGHModel64%RiskMediumGap+7.4%
Puebla Rest
4 days
Toluca Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
27%5.45
X
21%4.33
2
52%1.53
Double Chance
1X
48%2.39
X2
73%1.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.63
No
43%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1 + 1.38 = 2.38
Over 1.5
75%1.16
Over 2.5
49%1.54
Over 3.5
26%2.38
Under 1.5
25%4.92
Under 2.5
51%2.39
Under 3.5
74%1.54
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.9 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.39
Over 9.5
50%1.68
Over 10.5
36%2.02
Under 8.5
39%2.67
Under 9.5
50%2.10
Under 10.5
64%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.4 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.52
Over 4.5
54%2.02
Under 3.5
28%2.42
Under 4.5
46%1.75

Match Events

45'Franco Romero INVíctor Guzmán out
57'Ignacio MaestroFoul
59'Everardo Lopez INHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro out
59'Jesús Angulo INJorge Diaz out
69'José PachucaOG
72'Carlos Baltazar INHeriberto Jurado out
75'Brayan Garnica INOmar Moreno out
77'Federico Viñas INLuan Garcia out
90'Card upgrade confirmedMathías Adrián Tomás Borges
90'Bruno MéndezFoul
90+4'Fernando Monarrez INOscar Villa out
90+4'José Pachuca INIker Moreno out
90+4'Alejandro Organista INAlberto Herrera out
90+6'João Paulo Dias Fernandes INOswaldo Virgen out

Lineups

Puebla
4-1-4-1Coach: Gerardo Espinoza
Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Mohamed
R. Gutiérrez28R. GutiérrezR. Gutiérrez
J. Pachuca20J. PachucaJ. Pachuca
F. Almada5F. AlmadaF. Almada
J. Vargas4J. VargasJ. Vargas
F. Monárrez7F. MonárrezF. Monárrez
S. Sanabria21S. SanabriaS. Sanabria
B. Garnica27B. GarnicaB. Garnica
M. Tomás10M. TomásM. Tomás
A. Organista24A. OrganistaA. Organista
C. Baltazar22C. BaltazarC. Baltazar
I. Maestro Puch19I. Maestro PuchI. Maestro Puch
L. García22L. GarcíaL. García
D. Barbosa2D. BarbosaD. Barbosa
B. Méndez4B. MéndezB. Méndez
F. Pereira6F. PereiraF. Pereira
E. López25E. LópezE. López
F. Romero5F. RomeroF. Romero
N. Castro8N. CastroN. Castro
F. Viñas16F. ViñasF. Viñas
J. Angulo10J. AnguloJ. Angulo
J. Gallardo20J. GallardoJ. Gallardo
Paulinho26PaulinhoPaulinho

Puebla Substitutes

33J. RodríguezG
2Á. LeyvaD
15Ó. VillaD
12I. MorenoM
8O. MorenoF
16A. RamírezM
25H. JuradoF
14E. ArmentaM
3A. HerreraM
34Lucas CamiloM

Toluca Substitutes

23O. VirgenF
7V. GuzmánM
15P. PérezM
11HelinhoF
3A. BriseñoD
184S. AcevesM
24F. ArceM
12R. BeltránG
29J. DíazM
13LuanD

Match Stats

PueblaToluca
44%Ball Possession56%
6Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots11
2Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box5
8Shots Outside Box6
7Blocked Shots3
7Fouls14
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
349Total Passes452
279Passes Accurate388
14Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

PueblaPuebla
TolucaToluca
1512Elo Rating 1813
0.89Attack 2.70
1.89Defense 2.54
34%Hit Rate 100%
14.6Shots per Game 11.1
4.3Shots on Target 4.6
6.1Corners per Game 4.5
1.2Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

PueblaPuebla
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.1 in first half)
TolucaToluca
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Puebla 0%Draw 41%59% Toluca
2.61Avg Goals
37%BTTS Rate
59%Over 2.5

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Puebla vs Toluca Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Liga MX

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Key Factors for This Match

Toluca have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Puebla and Toluca have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.61 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.