Puebla vs Toluca Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 7
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Puebla vs Toluca: the result in context
Toluca beat Puebla 1-0 in the Liga MX on 16 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Toluca had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for Puebla.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Toluca tend to win more corners, 9.4 a game to 4.3 for Puebla.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Puebla
Avg ratingAvg rating
28R. Gutiérrez
20J. Pachuca
5F. Almada
4J. Vargas
7F. Monárrez
21S. Sanabria
27B. Garnica
10M. Tomás
24A. Organista
22C. Baltazar
19I. Maestro Puch
22L. García
2D. Barbosa
4B. Méndez
6F. Pereira
25E. López
5F. Romero
8N. Castro
16F. Viñas
10J. Angulo
20J. Gallardo
26PaulinhoPuebla Substitutes
Toluca Substitutes
Match Stats
PueblaToluca Team Comparison
PueblaTolucaAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Puebla- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
Toluca- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Puebla2Wins · 20%5Wins · 50%Previous meetings
31/01/2026PueblaToluca14/09/2025TolucaPuebla15/03/2025PueblaToluca23/10/2024TolucaPuebla27/01/2024PueblaToluca01/11/2023TolucaPuebla08/04/2023PueblaToluca03/08/2022TolucaPuebla03/04/2022TolucaPuebla06/11/2021PueblaTolucaRecent Form
Puebla
NecaxaPuebla
Club AmericaPueblaPuebla
Santos Laguna
CF PachucaPuebla
San DiegoPuebla
AustinPuebla
Portland TimbersPueblaPuebla
Guadalajara Chivas
Cruz AzulPuebla
FC JuarezPueblaTolucaToluca
AtlasToluca
MonterreyToluca
LeonTolucaFC JuarezTolucaAustin
Club QueretaroToluca
Atlante FCTolucaToluca
FC DallasToluca
Los Angeles FCToluca
Seattle SoundersReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
4.81 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.57).
Cards come from 159 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 | DDDLW |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 30 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 | WDDDD |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 | LWWLW |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 7 |  Club Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 | LWDLD |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 | WWWLL |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 | LDDWD |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 | LLWWD |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 | WWDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 37:26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 38:23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 26:15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 35:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 27:30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Club Leon | 16 | 23:21 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 29:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 25:22 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 26:25 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 16:26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 13:34 | 11 |
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About the Puebla vs Toluca forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Puebla and Toluca in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Toluca are 4th and Puebla 13th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Puebla 19-23, Toluca 35-21. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.