Leon vs Monterrey Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
64%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.50
SignalSOLIDModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
Leon Rest
4 days
Monterrey Rest
5 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
128%3.13
X26%3.56
246%2.10
Double Chance
1X54%1.70
X272%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes64%1.50
No36%2.39
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.4 + 1.35 = 2.75
Over 1.576%1.17
Over 2.556%1.59
Over 3.535%2.44
Under 1.524%4.67
Under 2.544%2.30
Under 3.565%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.4 = 9.2
Over 8.554%1.64
Over 9.545%2.05
Over 10.532%2.63
Under 8.546%2.14
Under 9.555%1.67
Under 10.568%1.40
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.5 = 5
Over 3.570%1.33
Over 4.553%1.71
Under 3.530%2.75
Under 4.547%2.01
Match Events
24'J. CortizoAssist: D. Cambindo
45'R. ChavezFoul
46'R. Chavez INL. Orellano out
60'D. Cambindo INA. Alvarado out
60'F. Beltran Cruz INJ. P. Dominguez Chonteco out
66'J. RomanaFoul
68'J. Cortizo INP. Bellon out
68'F. Ambriz INO. Torres out
77'L. CardenasFoul
79'D. Arcila(Penalty)
80'B. Colula INI. Moreno out
81'O. Pineda INI. Fimbres out
81'G. Arteaga INL. Reyes out
81'I. Rodriguez INJ. Lara out
88'J. Corona INR. de la Rosa out
90+7'J. GuevaraUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+8'O. TorresUnsportsmanlike conduct
Lineups
LeonMonterrey
Coach: Matias AlmeydaLeon Starting XI
23O. Garcia
4B. Colula80'replaced by I. Moreno
14J. Romana66'
3J. Guevara90+7'
5S. Vegas
29I. Rodriguez81'replaced by J. Lara
16J. Cortizo24'68'replaced by P. Bellon
35L. Valadez
6F. Beltran Cruz60'replaced by J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
13D. Arcila79'
27D. Cambindo60'replaced by A. Alvarado
Monterrey Starting XI
22L. Cardenas77'
2R. Chavez45'46'replaced by L. Orellano
4V. Guzman
30J. Rodriguez
3G. Arteaga81'replaced by L. Reyes
5F. Ambriz68'replaced by O. Torres
25O. Pineda81'replaced by I. Fimbres
9D. Rossi
7L. Ocampos
17J. Corona88'replaced by R. de la Rosa
99H. Cuypers
Leon Substitutes
12J. Gonzalez
185C. Mora
26S. Reyes
25P. Bellon68'for J. Cortizo
8J. P. Dominguez Chonteco60'for F. Beltran Cruz
22S. Santos
203J. Lara81'for I. Rodriguez
7I. Moreno80'for B. Colula
11I. Diaz
19A. Alvarado60'for D. Cambindo
Monterrey Substitutes
31C. Ramos
21L. Reyes81'for G. Arteaga
14E. Aguirre
11I. Fimbres81'for O. Pineda
18C. Garza
8O. Torres68'for F. Ambriz90+8'
200O. Galvez
27R. de la Rosa88'for J. Corona
10L. Orellano46'for R. Chavez
203A. De Nigris
Team Comparison
LeonMonterrey1655Elo Rating 1634
1.53Attack 2.06
1.26Defense 1.46
19%Hit Rate 36%
14.0Shots per Game 13.0
5.2Shots on Target 5.1
5.1Corners per Game 7.0
3.2Cards per Game 2.5
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Leon- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Monterrey- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 0.5 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Leon2Wins · 20%Draws220%
Monterrey6Wins · 60%
6Wins · 60%2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
15/02/2026MonterreyLeon10
12/08/2025LeonMonterrey13
21/04/2025LeonMonterrey02
11/11/2024MonterreyLeon21
21/04/2024LeonMonterrey20
17/09/2023MonterreyLeon31
28/02/2023LeonMonterrey11
07/08/2022MonterreyLeon51
02/03/2022LeonMonterrey00
17/10/2021MonterreyLeon01
Recent Form
Leon7W0D3L
18/08/2026
NecaxaLeon
NecaxaLeon12
W13/08/2026
Inter MiamiLeon
Inter MiamiLeon23
W09/08/2026
Orlando City SCLeon
06/08/2026Orlando City SCLeon12
W
Nashville SCLeon01
W02/08/2026Leon
CF Pachuca10
W25/07/2026
Club TijuanaLeon10
L18/07/2026Leon
Atlas23
L03/07/2026Leon
Tapatío
LeonTapatío42
W27/06/2026Leon
Mineros de Zacatecas
LeonMineros de Zacatecas74
W26/04/2026
TolucaLeon
TolucaLeon41
LMonterrey6W1D3L
16/08/2026Monterrey
FC JuarezInter MiamiMonterreyAtlasMonterreyNecaxaMonterreyMonterrey
Santos Laguna
MonterreyFC Juarez61
W13/08/2026MonterreyNashville SC
09/08/2026MonterreyNashville SC21
WInter MiamiMonterrey12
W06/08/2026MonterreyOrlando City SC
02/08/2026MonterreyOrlando City SC12
LAtlasMonterrey02
W27/07/2026NecaxaMonterrey21
L19/07/2026MonterreySantos Laguna32
W04/07/2026
Atlante FCMonterrey
Atlante FCMonterrey11
D22/06/2026
CancúnMonterrey
CancúnMonterrey14
W27/04/2026Santos LagunaMonterrey
Santos LagunaMonterrey30
LReferee Profile
4.61Cards per match
4.22Yellow cards per match
0.39Red cards per match
23.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.61 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.47).
Cards come from 218 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 | DDDLW |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 30 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 | WDDDD |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 | LWWLW |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 | DLDWL |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 | WWWLL |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 | LDDWD |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 13 |  Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 | LLWWD |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 | WWDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 37:26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 38:23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 26:15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 35:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 27:30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 23:21 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 29:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 25:22 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 26:25 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 16:26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 13:34 | 11 |
Promotion
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga MX matches
About the Leon vs Monterrey forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Leon and Monterrey in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Leon are 7th and Monterrey 10th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Leon 23-21, Monterrey 26-25. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.