Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate Prediction

Estadio Eva Peron, Hu Ning·Sebastian Zunino 15/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.54
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Sarmiento Junin Rest
5 days
River Plate Rest
3 days

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: the result in context

Sarmiento Junin and River Plate drew 1-1 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 14 Oct 2026. River Plate had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 2 for Sarmiento Junin.

River Plate have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game. River Plate tend to win more corners, 7.7 a game to 3.5 for Sarmiento Junin.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
15%6.44
X
24%3.83
2
61%1.54
Double Chance
1X
39%2.40
X2
85%1.11
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.15
No
54%1.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.97 + 1.46 = 2.43
Over 1.5
71%1.33
Over 2.5
46%2.13
Over 3.5
26%3.80
Under 1.5
29%3.10
Under 2.5
54%1.70
Under 3.5
74%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.3 + 5.4 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.75
Over 9.5
48%2.23
Over 10.5
36%3.05
Under 8.5
40%2.03
Under 9.5
52%1.59
Under 10.5
64%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.3 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%1.24
Over 4.5
50%1.50
Under 3.5
31%3.75
Under 4.5
50%2.50

Match Events

15'Julián ContreraAssist: Junior Marabel
59'Goal cancelledFausto Vera
61'Pablo Daniel MagninDissent
69'Julián ContreraFoul
69'Julian Mavilla INElián Giménez out
69'Jhon Rentería INJonathan Herrera out
70'Tobías AndradaFoul
71'Gonzalo MontielAssist: Thiago Almada
72'Julián Contrera INGaston Gonzalez out
72'Tomás Ezequiel Galván INLautaro Pereyra out
73'Marcos Acuña INFrancisco Ortega out
82'Fausto VeraFoul
84'Sebastián Driussi INLucas Beltran out
89'Manuel GarcíaFoul
90+3'Santiago Salle INAgustín Nadruz out
90+3'Junior Marabel INPablo Daniel Magnin out

Lineups

Sarmiento Junin
4-3-3Coach: Facundo Sava
River Plate
4-1-3-2Coach: Leonardo Ponzio
Avg rating6.65
Avg rating6.87
T. Ayala7.512T. Ayala
S. Salle6.18S. Salle
R. Orihuela6.644R. Orihuela
J. Insaurralde6.52J. Insaurralde
L. Suárez6.33L. Suárez
J. Contrera8.019J. Contrera
M. García6.25M. García
C. Zabala6.415C. Zabala
Jhon Rentería6.810J. Rentería
J. Marabel6.727J. Marabel
J. Mavilla6.321J. Mavilla
S. Beltrán6.641S. Beltrán
G. Montiel8.029G. Montiel
L. Martínez7.328L. Martínez
N. Otamendi7.530N. Otamendi
M. Acuña7.021M. Acuña
F. Vera6.115F. Vera
T. Andrada6.550T. Andrada
T. Almada7.723T. Almada
T. Galván6.326T. Galván
Á. Correa7.210Á. Correa
S. Driussi6.59S. Driussi

Sarmiento Junin Substitutes

33G. Díaz
35F. Alaggia
1I. Arboleda
6G. Arturia
23E. Giménez69'for Julian Mavilla6.2
39Joel Godoy
11G. González72'for Julián Contrera6.5
24J. Herrera69'for Jhon Rentería6.9
7P. Magnín61'90+3'for Junior Marabel
17A. Nadruz90+3'for Santiago Salle
77N. Pasquini
29T. Santamaría

River Plate Substitutes

18L. Beltrán84'for Sebastián Driussi6.3
8M. Arambarri
19R. Borré
33E. Centurión
27Santiago Joaquín Espíndola
20G. González
24J. Meza
6A. Moreno
3F. Ortega73'for Marcos Acuña6.7
25L. Pereyra72'for Tomás Ezequiel Galván6.8
2T. Palacio
13L. Rivero
31F. González

Match Stats

Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
27%Ball Possession73%
5Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards2
11Total Shots22
4Shots on Goal8
3Shots off Goal7
5Shots Inside Box14
6Shots Outside Box8
4Blocked Shots7
20Fouls8
0Offsides1
7Goalkeeper Saves3
187Total Passes516
97Passes Accurate436
7Free Kicks20

Team Comparison

Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin
River PlateRiver Plate
1624Elo Rating 1761
1.06Attack 1.68
1.45Defense 2.30
17%Hit Rate 61%
10.8Shots per Game 20.1
2.7Shots on Target 6.5
3.5Corners per Game 7.7
3.2Cards per Game 1.4

Game State Tendencies

Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
River PlateRiver Plate
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin2Wins · 25%
Draws113%
River PlateRiver Plate5Wins · 62%
2.6Avg Goals
38%Both teams scored3 of 8
38%3+ goals3 of 8

Previous meetings

Liga Profesional Argentina15/03/2026
River PlateSarmiento Junin
20
Liga Profesional Argentina13/10/2025
River PlateSarmiento Junin
01
Liga Profesional Argentina06/04/2025
Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
11
Liga Profesional Argentina28/07/2024
River PlateSarmiento Junin
10
Liga Profesional Argentina20/03/2023
Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
02
Liga Profesional Argentina01/08/2022
River PlateSarmiento Junin
12
Liga Profesional Argentina01/05/2022
Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
07
Liga Profesional Argentina31/08/2021
Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
12

Referee Profile

Sebastian Zunino195 matches

4.86Cards per match
4.55Yellow cards per match
0.31Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Sebastian Zunino4.86
Other referees5.24

4.86 cards a match, 0.38 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.24).

Cards come from 97 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Apertura - Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia16104229:15+1434WWWWL
2River PlateRiver Plate1692522:12+1029WWWWW
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1685317:13+429LWWWW
4Rosario CentralRosario Central1684420:16+428WLWLW
5Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1675417:13+426WLLDW
6Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1682619:19026WWLLL
7HuracanHuracan1657417:13+422DWWDD
8Racing ClubRacing Club1656517:15+221LLWWD
9Barracas CentralBarracas Central1656515:15021WLDWW
10TigreTigre1648418:15+320DDLLD
11Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1661913:20-719LLWWL
12BanfieldBanfield1653817:19-218DLLWL
13Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1635815:20-514LDLWL
14AldosiviAldosivi160886:19-138LDLLD
15Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto1612135:24-195LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1629:1534
2River PlateRiver Plate1622:1229
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1617:1329
4Rosario CentralRosario Central1620:1628
5Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1617:1326
6Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1619:1926
7HuracanHuracan1617:1322
8Racing ClubRacing Club1617:1521
9Barracas CentralBarracas Central1615:1521
10TigreTigre1618:1520
11Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1613:2019
12BanfieldBanfield1617:1918
13Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1615:2014
14AldosiviAldosivi166:198
15Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto165:245

Clausura - Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rosario CentralRosario Central1484222:11+1128WLWLW
2Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1374217:11+625LWWWW
3Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1474321:18+325WWLLL
4Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1364314:10+422WLLDW
5Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1463522:21+121LLWWL
6River PlateRiver Plate1362518:13+520WWWWW
7Barracas CentralBarracas Central1354411:10+119WLDWW
8HuracanHuracan1454512:14-219DWWDD
9Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1354417:21-419WWWWL
10Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1445513:13017LDLWL
11BanfieldBanfield1435615:20-514DLLWL
12TigreTigre1434713:16-313DDLLD
13Racing ClubRacing Club1333714:20-612LLWWD
14Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto132388:17-99LDLLL
15AldosiviAldosivi1322914:22-88LDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Rosario CentralRosario Central1422:1128
2Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1317:1125
3Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1421:1825
4Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1314:1022
5Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1422:2121
6River PlateRiver Plate1318:1320
7Barracas CentralBarracas Central1311:1019
8HuracanHuracan1412:1419
9Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1317:2119
10Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1413:1317
11BanfieldBanfield1415:2014
12TigreTigre1413:1613
13Racing ClubRacing Club1314:2012
14Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto138:179
15AldosiviAldosivi1314:228

About the Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate forecast

The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sarmiento Junin and River Plate in the Liga Profesional Argentina table

In the Liga Profesional Argentina table, River Plate are 2nd and Sarmiento Junin 11th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Sarmiento Junin 13-20, River Plate 22-12. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

River Plate have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.