Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo Prediction

Tokyo Verdy
0-4
Finished
HT 0-1
FC Tokyo
Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu·Atsushi Kamimura 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
55%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.64
SignalNEUTRALModel49%SurpriseHighGap-6.4%
Tokyo Verdy Rest
5 days
FC Tokyo Rest
2 days

Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo: the result in context

FC Tokyo beat Tokyo Verdy 4-0 in the J1 League on 17 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Tokyo had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Tokyo Verdy.

Their history points to a close game: 7 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Referee Atsushi Kamimura averages 3.26 cards a game, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
20%5.25
X
27%3.75
2
53%1.64
Double Chance
1X
47%2.23
X2
80%1.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%2.00
No
50%1.74
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.08 + 1.27 = 2.35
Over 1.5
71%1.33
Over 2.5
46%2.06
Over 3.5
26%3.60
Under 1.5
29%3.14
Under 2.5
54%1.74
Under 3.5
74%1.25
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

18'Itsuki SomenoViolent conduct
28'Yuya Fukuda INIssei Kumatoriya out
41'Alexander ScholzAssist: Kota Tawaratsumida
45'Kim Hyun-Woo INKazunari Ichimi out
55'Marcelo(Penalty)
58'Yuta AraiFoul
66'Kosuke Saito INRei Hirakawa out
67'Kashif Bangnagande INRio Omori out
67'Kota Tawaratsumida INKein Sato out
68'Motoki NagakuraAssist: Rio Omori
74'Takahiro Ko INKyota Tokiwa out
80'Kanya Fujimoto INKoki Morita out
80'Kai Shibato INCho Yu-Min out
81'Kazunari IchimiFoul
83'Marcelo INDani Gómez out
84'Soma Anzai INFuki Yamada out
90+4'Dani GómezAssist: Fuki Yamada

Lineups

Tokyo Verdy
4-4-2Coach: N. Soma
FC Tokyo
4-4-2Coach: R. Matsuhashi
Avg rating5.88
Avg rating7.19
Matheus Vidotto6.31M. Vidotto
K. Suzuki5.915K. Suzuki
N. Hayashi6.04N. Hayashi
M. Sako6.129M. Sako
Y. Arai5.340Y. Arai
K. Fujimoto6.119K. Fujimoto
K. Shibato5.92K. Shibato
K. Saito5.98K. Saito
Y. Fukuda5.414Y. Fukuda
Kim Hyun-Woo6.417K. Hyun-Woo
I. Someno5.59I. Someno
Kim Seung-Gyu7.381K. Seung-Gyu
H. Ishihara7.122H. Ishihara
A. Scholz7.924A. Scholz
H. Inamura7.64H. Inamura
K. Bangnagande7.26K. Bangnagande
S. Anzai6.77S. Anzai
T. Ko6.88T. Ko
S. Nagano7.020S. Nagano
K. Tawaratsumida7.733K. Tawaratsumida
Marcelo Ryan7.89M. Ryan
M. Nagakura7.726M. Nagakura

Tokyo Verdy Substitutes

22Y. Uchida
13G. Yamada
96Cho Yu-Min80'for Kai Shibato5.7
16R. Hirakawa66'for Kosuke Saito5.9
33K. Ichimi45'for Kim Hyun-Woo81'5.6
25I. Kumatoriya28'for Yuya Fukuda6.4
7Y. Matsuhashi
10K. Morita80'for Kanya Fujimoto5.8
21Y. Nagasawa

FC Tokyo Substitutes

3M. Morishige
39T. Nakagawa
15R. Omori67'for Kashif Bangnagande6.5
10K. Sato67'for Kota Tawaratsumida6.6
44K. Suzuki
1H. Tanaka
27Kyota Tokiwa74'for Takahiro Ko7.1
71F. Yamada84'for Soma Anzai6.8
99Dani Gómez83'for Marcelo90+4'7.4

Match Stats

Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo
18%Ball Possession82%
1Corner Kicks11
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
2Total Shots23
0Shots on Goal8
2Shots off Goal8
2Shots Inside Box13
0Shots Outside Box10
0Blocked Shots7
11Fouls8
3Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves0
158Total Passes711
89Passes Accurate641
8Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
FC TokyoFC Tokyo
1464Elo Rating 1685
1.27Attack 1.98
1.16Defense 2.81
27%Hit Rate 54%
8.3Shots per Game 19.6
3.3Shots on Target 5.2
3.3Corners per Game 6.2
1.8Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🔥Derby Match

Game State Tendencies

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC TokyoFC Tokyo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy0Wins · 0%
Draws571%
FC TokyoFC Tokyo2Wins · 29%
2.0Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
43%3+ goals3 of 7

Previous meetings

J1 League10/05/2026
FC TokyoTokyo Verdy
21
J1 League22/03/2026
Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo
4020
J1 League15/09/2025
FC TokyoTokyo Verdy
10
J1 League02/04/2025
Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo
22
J1 League17/08/2024
FC TokyoTokyo Verdy
00
J1 League13/04/2024
Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo
22
Emperor Cup12/07/2023
FC TokyoTokyo Verdy
11

Recent Form

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
3W2D5L
11/10/2026
Tokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
02
L
07/10/2026
Gainare TottoriTokyo Verdy
3040
W
29/09/2026
Sagan TosuTokyo Verdy
2111
L
19/09/2026
UrawaTokyo Verdy
31
L
13/09/2026
Tokyo VerdyJEF United Chiba
11
D
09/09/2026
Biwako ShigaTokyo Verdy
01
W
06/09/2026
Cerezo OsakaTokyo Verdy
00
D
02/09/2026
Tokyo VerdyVissel Kobe
02
L
29/08/2026
Tokyo VerdyKashima
02
L
26/08/2026
Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu Gunma
41
W
FC TokyoFC Tokyo
8W1D1L
14/10/2026
Mito HollyhockFC Tokyo
10
L
10/10/2026
FC TokyoUrawa
30
W
07/10/2026
FC TokyoShonan Bellmare
40
W
29/09/2026
Ehime FCFC Tokyo
02
W
19/09/2026
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus
10
W
12/09/2026
Gamba OsakaFC Tokyo
02
W
06/09/2026
FC TokyoKyoto Sanga
20
W
02/09/2026
Shimizu S-pulseFC Tokyo
11
D
29/08/2026
V-varen NagasakiFC Tokyo
03
W
26/08/2026
FC TokyoParceiro Nagano
60
W

Referee Profile

Atsushi Kamimura103 matches

3.26Cards per match
3.04Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Atsushi Kamimura3.26
Other referees2.69

3.26 cards a match, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.69).

Cards come from 23 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo forecast

As a derby, this J1 League meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo in the J1 League table

The table shows a wide gap: FC Tokyo are 2nd in the J1 League, while Tokyo Verdy sit 18th, 19 points behind. League goal record so far: Tokyo Verdy 9-21, FC Tokyo 27-8. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.