Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction

Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu·Hiroki Kasahara 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.44
SignalSOLIDModel71%SurpriseHighGap-2.5%
Tokyo Verdy Rest
3 days
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Rest
3 days

Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: the result in context

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Tokyo Verdy 2-0 in the J1 League on 11 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Tokyo Verdy.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game. Sanfrecce Hiroshima tend to win more corners, 7.8 a game to 3.3 for Tokyo Verdy.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
11%6.84
X
21%4.50
2
68%1.44
Double Chance
1X
32%2.71
X2
89%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.80
No
49%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.7 + 2.13 = 2.83
Over 1.5
79%1.18
Over 2.5
57%1.67
Over 3.5
34%2.62
Under 1.5
21%4.33
Under 2.5
43%2.15
Under 3.5
66%1.44
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

15'Kim Hyun-WooFoul
17'Kim Ju-sungFoul
40'Kaito SuzukiFoul
45'Yotaro Nakajima INTaishi Matsumoto out
45'Mutsuki Kato INSébastien Haller out
45'Kim Ju-sung INShunki Higashi out
47'Taishi MatsumotoAssist: Akito Suzuki
55'Itsuki SomenoDissent
57'Kim Hyun-Woo INKazunari Ichimi out
58'Akito Suzuki
67'Daiki Suga INNaoki Maeda out
70'Kanya Fujimoto INIssei Kumatoriya out
70'Yuya Fukuda INShuhei Mizoguchi out
81'Shun Ayukawa INTakuma Asano out
85'Kazunari Ichimi INGoki Yamada out
85'Kai Shibato INShion Nakayama out

Lineups

Tokyo Verdy
4-4-2Coach: N. Soma
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3-4-2-1Coach: Bartosch Gaul
Avg rating6.17
Avg rating6.84
Matheus Vidotto5.81M. Vidotto
K. Suzuki5.915K. Suzuki
N. Hayashi5.64N. Hayashi
M. Sako5.729M. Sako
Y. Arai6.240Y. Arai
K. Fujimoto6.219K. Fujimoto
K. Shibato6.12K. Shibato
K. Saito6.08K. Saito
Y. Fukuda6.314Y. Fukuda
I. Someno5.89I. Someno
Kim Hyun-Woo6.517K. Hyun-Woo
K. Osako6.91K. Osako
S. Nakano7.115S. Nakano
H. Araki7.04H. Araki
Kim Ju-Sung7.037K. Ju-Sung
N. Arai6.35N. Arai
H. Kawabe6.76H. Kawabe
Y. Nakajima6.735Y. Nakajima
D. Suga6.318D. Suga
M. Kato6.611M. Kato
A. Suzuki8.410A. Suzuki
S. Ayukawa6.523S. Ayukawa

Tokyo Verdy Substitutes

16R. Hirakawa
33K. Ichimi57'for Kim Hyun-Woo85'for Goki Yamada6.1
5R. Inoue
25I. Kumatoriya70'for Kanya Fujimoto6.7
18S. Mizoguchi70'for Yuya Fukuda6.8
21Y. Nagasawa
24Shion Nakayama85'for Kai Shibato6.5
22Y. Uchida
13G. Yamada85'replaced by Kazunari Ichimi6.6

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Substitutes

99I. Ouchi
46R. Noguchi
14T. Matsumoto45'for Yotaro Nakajima47'8.2
41N. Maeda67'for Daiki Suga6.1
32S. Koshimichi
45S. Kobayashi
7S. Higashi45'for Kim Ju-sung6.8
22S. Haller45'for Mutsuki Kato6.5
29T. Asano81'for Shun Ayukawa6.4

Match Stats

Tokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
33%Ball Possession67%
1Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards1
6Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal3
4Shots Inside Box6
2Shots Outside Box5
0Blocked Shots4
15Fouls10
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
303Total Passes627
204Passes Accurate523
67%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
1464Elo Rating 1708
1.27Attack 2.11
1.16Defense 2.08
27%Hit Rate 77%
8.3Shots per Game 17.3
3.3Shots on Target 5.1
3.3Corners per Game 7.8
1.8Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
⚠️Away Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima5Wins · 100%
3.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
80%3+ goals4 of 5

Previous meetings

J1 League23/08/2025
Tokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
03
J1 League17/05/2025
Sanfrecce HiroshimaTokyo Verdy
21
J1 League07/08/2024
Tokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
01
J1 League15/06/2024
Sanfrecce HiroshimaTokyo Verdy
41
J-League Cup22/05/2024
Tokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
23

Recent Form

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
3W3D4L
07/10/2026
Gainare TottoriTokyo Verdy
3040
W
29/09/2026
Sagan TosuTokyo Verdy
2111
L
19/09/2026
UrawaTokyo Verdy
31
L
13/09/2026
Tokyo VerdyJEF United Chiba
11
D
09/09/2026
Biwako ShigaTokyo Verdy
01
W
06/09/2026
Cerezo OsakaTokyo Verdy
00
D
02/09/2026
Tokyo VerdyVissel Kobe
02
L
29/08/2026
Tokyo VerdyKashima
02
L
26/08/2026
Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu Gunma
41
W
22/08/2026
Fagiano OkayamaTokyo Verdy
00
D
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
7W2D1L
07/10/2026
Sanfrecce HiroshimaIwaki
40
W
29/09/2026
Tochigi CitySanfrecce Hiroshima
02
W
19/09/2026
Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce Hiroshima
01
W
12/09/2026
Sanfrecce HiroshimaCerezo Osaka
61
W
06/09/2026
Fagiano OkayamaSanfrecce Hiroshima
32
L
02/09/2026
Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya Grampus
30
W
29/08/2026
Gamba OsakaSanfrecce Hiroshima
00
D
26/08/2026
Sanfrecce HiroshimaOkinawa SV
41
W
22/08/2026
Sanfrecce HiroshimaKawasaki Frontale
11
D
15/08/2026
UrawaSanfrecce Hiroshima
14
W

Referee Profile

Hiroki Kasahara147 matches

2.89Cards per match
2.77Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Hiroki Kasahara2.89
Other referees2.47

2.89 cards a match, 0.42 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.47).

Cards come from 100 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima forecast

The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League table

The table shows a wide gap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 3rd in the J1 League, while Tokyo Verdy sit 18th, 18 points behind. League goal record so far: Tokyo Verdy 9-21, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 29-10. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.