Utrecht vs Willem II Prediction

Utrecht
3-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Willem II
Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht·Jannick van der Laan 11/10/2026
UtrechtUtrecht
3-1
Finished
Willem IIWillem II

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel67%SurpriseMediumGap-5.6%
Utrecht Rest
21 days
Willem II Rest
21 days

Utrecht vs Willem II: result, form and history

Utrecht beat Willem II 3-1 in the Eredivisie on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Utrecht have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 5.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.50
X
21%4.57
2
17%5.63
Double Chance
1X
83%1.14
X2
38%2.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.52
No
40%2.37
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.95 + 1.12 = 3.07
Over 1.5
83%1.10
Over 2.5
63%1.40
Over 3.5
43%2.09
Under 1.5
17%6.00
Under 2.5
37%2.75
Under 3.5
57%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.5 = 10.7
Over 8.5
67%1.37
Over 9.5
57%1.70
Over 10.5
48%2.06
Under 8.5
33%2.67
Under 9.5
43%2.04
Under 10.5
52%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.7 = 3.4
Over 3.5
43%2.20
Over 4.5
25%3.35
Under 3.5
57%1.62
Under 4.5
75%1.29

Match Events

45'Yoann Cathline
53'Yoann CathlineAssist: Dani De Wit
60'Jaden SloryAssist: Vito van Crooy
68'Arthur Zagre INPer Kloosterboer out
68'Niklas Vesterlund INÁngel Alarcón out
72'Jaden Slory INEser Gürbüz out
72'Tonny Vilhena INAnass Zarrouk out
75'Yoann CathlineAssist: Oualid Agougil
80'Nikolas PanagiotouFoul
81'Vito van Crooy INThomas Verheydt out
81'Nathan Tjoe-A-On INAlessandro Ciranni out
82'Marius Broholm INAdrian Blake out
82'Oualid Agougil INDavy Van Den Berg out
87'Uriël van Aalst INChido Obi out
90+2'Ángel AlarcónAssist: Adrian Blake
90+3'Yoann Cathline INS. van Duijn out

Lineups

Utrecht
3-4-3Coach: A. Correia
Willem II
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Stegeman
Avg rating6.97
Avg rating6.26
V. Barkas6.31V. Barkas
S. Horemans6.92S. Horemans
M. Didden6.83M. Didden
N. Panagiotou6.15N. Panagiotou
N. Vesterlund6.623N. Vesterlund
J. van Overeem7.28J. van Overeem
O. Agougil7.738O. Agougil
A. Zagré6.592A. Zagré
M. Broholm6.480M. Broholm
D. de Wit7.220D. de Wit
Y. Cathline9.210Y. Cathline
M. Delanghe5.826M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest6.05H. ter Avest
F. Stam6.63F. Stam
M. Dekker5.723M. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On6.324N. Tjoe-A-On
C. Twigt6.46C. Twigt
T. Vilhena5.852T. Vilhena
J. Slory6.87J. Slory
Uriel van Aalst5.919U. van Aalst
V. van Crooij6.932V. van Crooij
D. Haen6.79D. Haen

Utrecht Substitutes

11Ángel Alarcón68'for Niklas Vesterlund90+2'7.7
39N. Amrabat
15A. Blake82'for Marius Broholm6.8
33K. Gadellaa
32P. Kloosterboer68'for Arthur Zagre6.6
18J. Medić
6G. Offerhaus
21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
22S. Padt
17S. van Duijn90+3'for Yoann Cathline
34D. van den Berg82'for Oualid Agougil6.5

Willem II Substitutes

15A. Et-Taïbi
50E. Gürbüz72'for Jaden Slory6.5
83M. Lemmens
14Jens Mathijsen
17O. Martin87'for Uriël van Aalst6.3
10J. Schuurman
28T. Verheydt81'for Vito van Crooy6.4
18Anass Zarrouk72'for Tonny Vilhena6.0
31K. de Leeuw
22Per van Loon
21W. van der Steen
2A. Ciranni81'for Nathan Tjoe-A-On6.1

Match Stats

UtrechtWillem II
58%Ball Possession42%
7Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards0
24Total Shots9
6Shots on Goal2
10Shots off Goal5
19Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box2
8Blocked Shots2
15Fouls13
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves3
483Total Passes351
416Passes Accurate278
86%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

UtrechtUtrecht
Willem IIWillem II
1711Elo Rating 1535
1.98Attack 1.07
0.94Defense 0.34
66%Hit Rate 0%
15.5Shots per Game 11.5
5.0Shots on Target 3.1
4.6Corners per Game 3.4
1.7Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+176 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.07 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

UtrechtUtrecht
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
Willem IIWillem II
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

UtrechtUtrecht5Wins · 83%
Draws00%
Willem IIWillem II1Wins · 17%
5.0Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored4 of 6
100%3+ goals6 of 6

Previous meetings

Eredivisie09/03/2025
Willem IIUtrecht
23
Eredivisie21/09/2024
UtrechtWillem II
32
Eredivisie15/05/2022
Willem IIUtrecht
30
Eredivisie31/10/2021
UtrechtWillem II
51
Eredivisie01/05/2021
UtrechtWillem II
32
Eredivisie19/02/2021
Willem IIUtrecht
06

Recent Form

Willem IIWillem II
2W3D5L
19/09/2026
Willem IIFortuna Sittard
01
L
15/09/2026
AjaxWillem II
51
L
11/09/2026
AZ AlkmaarWillem II
11
D
05/09/2026
Willem IIExcelsior
03
L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
15/08/2026
Willem IINEC Nijmegen
14
L
08/08/2026
GO Ahead EaglesWillem II
41
L
01/08/2026
Willem IIOFI
21
W
25/07/2026
Willem IIKV Mechelen
10
W
11/07/2026
Willem IIFC Eindhoven
22
D

Referee Profile

Jannick van der Laan162 matches

3.38Cards per match
3.28Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jannick van der Laan3.38
Other referees3.22

3.38 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.22).

Cards come from 153 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord972031:10+2123WWWWW
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar962120:10+1020DLWDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven961227:12+1519LWLWW
4AjaxAjax953127:12+1518WDDWW
5TwenteTwente952217:10+717LDWWW
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard943216:17-115DDWLW
7GroningenGroningen942322:19+314LWWDD
8HeerenveenHeerenveen933315:11+412WLWDL
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles925220:21-111LDDDD
10ExcelsiorExcelsior932416:18-211LLDLD
11UtrechtUtrecht932416:26-1011WWLWD
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen924315:16-110DDDLD
13Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam923416:22-69WDLLD
14CambuurCambuur923413:21-89DWDWD
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle921610:22-127WLLLD
16TelstarTelstar913510:18-86LDLDL
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag913511:20-96WDDLL
18Willem IIWillem II90279:26-172LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord931:1023
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar920:1020
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven927:1219
4AjaxAjax927:1218
5TwenteTwente917:1017
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard916:1715
7GroningenGroningen922:1914
8HeerenveenHeerenveen915:1112
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles920:2111
10ExcelsiorExcelsior916:1811
11UtrechtUtrecht916:2611
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen915:1610
13Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam916:229
14CambuurCambuur913:219
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle910:227
16TelstarTelstar910:186
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag911:206
18Willem IIWillem II99:262
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Utrecht vs Willem II forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Utrecht and Willem II in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, Utrecht are 11th and Willem II 18th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Utrecht 16-26, Willem II 9-26. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.