Ajax vs Willem II Prediction

Ajax
5-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Willem II
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam 15/09/2026
AjaxAjax
5-1
Finished
Willem IIWillem II

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.88
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+7.2%
Ajax Rest
3 days
Willem II Rest
4 days

Ajax vs Willem II: result, form and history

Ajax beat Willem II 5-1 in the Eredivisie on 15 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Ajax had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Willem II.

Ajax have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
84%1.10
X
14%10.25
2
2%19.50
Double Chance
1X
98%1.02
X2
16%6.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.82
No
45%1.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.7 + 0.83 = 3.53
Over 1.5
86%1.05
Over 2.5
74%1.20
Over 3.5
54%1.56
Under 1.5
14%9.00
Under 2.5
26%4.20
Under 3.5
46%2.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 3.1 = 10
Over 8.5
63%1.28
Over 9.5
52%1.50
Over 10.5
42%1.83
Under 8.5
37%3.24
Under 9.5
48%2.42
Under 10.5
58%1.88
Cards
Projected Cards: 1 + 1.7 = 2.8
Over 3.5
30%2.87
Over 4.5
15%-
Under 3.5
70%1.38
Under 4.5
85%-

Match Events

41'Davy KlaassenAssist: Kasper Dolberg
45'Julian BrandtAssist: Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
45'Per van Loon INAlessandro Ciranni out
45'Tonny Vilhena INMats Lemmens out
57'Steven Berghuis INViktor Tsygankov out
57'Davy Klaassen INSofyan Amrabat out
61'Hidde ter Avest INA. Et-Taibi out
67'Owen Wijndal INCaio Henrique out
67'Julian Brandt INAbdellah Ouazane out
69'Viktor TsygankovAssist: Oscar Gloukh
70'Jaden Slory INChido Obi out
74'Oscar GloukhAssist: Kasper Dolberg
76'Alessandro CiranniAssist: Uriël van Aalst
77'Thilo Kehrer INDies Janse out
84'Maxim Dekker INEser Gürbüz out
87'Kasper Dolberg

Lineups

Ajax
4-3-3Coach: Míchel
Willem II
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Stegeman
Avg rating7.26
Avg rating6.10
M. Paes6.626M. Paes
Lucas Rosa7.02L. Rosa
T. Kehrer6.96T. Kehrer
Y. Baas7.515Y. Baas
O. Wijndal6.25O. Wijndal
D. Klaassen8.118D. Klaassen
J. Mokio6.724J. Mokio
J. Brandt8.28J. Brandt
S. Berghuis6.823S. Berghuis
K. Dolberg9.29K. Dolberg
O. Gloukh9.010O. Gloukh
M. Delanghe6.726M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest5.45H. ter Avest
F. Stam6.03F. Stam
M. Dekker5.823M. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On6.224N. Tjoe-A-On
C. Twigt6.16C. Twigt
T. Vilhena6.052T. Vilhena
Per van Loon5.922P. van Loon
Uriel van Aalst7.219U. van Aalst
J. Slory5.97J. Slory
D. Haen6.49D. Haen

Ajax Substitutes

99T. Arokodare
1M. ter Stegen
20O. Edvardsen
3A. Gaaei
36D. Janse77'for Thilo Kehrer6.6
12Caio Henrique67'for Owen Wijndal6.4
68A. Ouazane67'for Julian Brandt6.5
38Marcos Leonardo
51C. Setford
21Jofre Torrents
11V. Tsygankov57'for Steven Berghuis69'7.6
4S. Amrabat57'for Davy Klaassen7.0

Willem II Substitutes

83M. Lemmens45'for Tonny Vilhena5.5
2A. Ciranni45'for Per van Loon76'6.3
15A. Et-Taïbi61'for Hidde ter Avest5.5
50E. Gürbüz84'for Maxim Dekker6.5
14Jens Mathijsen
17O. Martin70'for Jaden Slory6.2
10J. Schuurman
28T. Verheydt
18Anass Zarrouk
31K. de Leeuw
21W. van der Steen

Match Stats

AjaxWillem II
70%Ball Possession30%
14Corner Kicks2
33Total Shots10
12Shots on Goal4
11Shots off Goal4
26Shots Inside Box7
7Shots Outside Box3
10Blocked Shots2
6Fouls3
3Offsides4
3Goalkeeper Saves7
759Total Passes328
692Passes Accurate266
3Free Kicks5

Team Comparison

AjaxAjax
Willem IIWillem II
1906Elo Rating 1526
3.27Attack 1.50
2.25Defense 0.00
100%Hit Rate 19%
17.0Shots per Game 10.6
6.6Shots on Target 3.3
4.9Corners per Game 3.7
1.2Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+380 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.53 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AjaxAjax
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 1.2 in first half)
Willem IIWillem II
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

AjaxAjax5Wins · 83%
Draws117%
Willem IIWillem II0Wins · 0%
2.7Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

Eredivisie13/04/2025
Willem IIAjax
12
Eredivisie27/10/2024
AjaxWillem II
10
Eredivisie19/02/2022
Willem IIAjax
01
Eredivisie02/12/2021
AjaxWillem II
50
Eredivisie28/01/2021
AjaxWillem II
31
Eredivisie23/12/2020
Willem IIAjax
11

Recent Form

Willem IIWillem II
3W3D4L
11/09/2026
AZ AlkmaarWillem II
11
D
05/09/2026
Willem IIExcelsior
03
L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
15/08/2026
Willem IINEC Nijmegen
14
L
08/08/2026
GO Ahead EaglesWillem II
41
L
01/08/2026
Willem IIOFI
21
W
25/07/2026
Willem IIKV Mechelen
10
W
11/07/2026
Willem IIFC Eindhoven
22
D
04/07/2026
Willem IIQuick Boys
12
L
23/05/2026
FC VolendamWillem II
4152
W

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1282240:15+2526WWDLW
2FeyenoordFeyenoord1274136:17+1925LDDWW
3AjaxAjax1274132:15+1725DWWWD
4TwenteTwente1273230:12+1824DWWLD
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1272324:16+823WLLDL
6HeerenveenHeerenveen1263324:16+821WWWWL
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1255220:20020DDWDD
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1245324:27-317WLWLD
9GroningenGroningen1243529:28+115LLDLW
10CambuurCambuur1243525:27-215LWWDW
11NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1235420:21-114WLDDD
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1233621:29-812LWLWD
13PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1233613:24-1112DWDWL
14UtrechtUtrecht1233621:34-1312LLDWW
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1232716:29-1311LLLLL
16TelstarTelstar1224618:25-710DWLLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1223716:25-99WLLWD
18Willem IIWillem II1203911:40-293DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1240:1526
2FeyenoordFeyenoord1236:1725
3AjaxAjax1232:1525
4TwenteTwente1230:1224
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1224:1623
6HeerenveenHeerenveen1224:1621
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1220:2020
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1224:2717
9GroningenGroningen1229:2815
10CambuurCambuur1225:2715
11NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1220:2114
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1221:2912
13PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1213:2412
14UtrechtUtrecht1221:3412
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1216:2911
16TelstarTelstar1218:2510
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1216:259
18Willem IIWillem II1211:403
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Ajax vs Willem II forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Ajax and Willem II in the Eredivisie table

The table shows a wide gap: Ajax are 3rd in the Eredivisie, while Willem II sit 18th, 22 points behind. League goal record so far: Ajax 32-15, Willem II 11-40. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Ajax have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.