AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction

AZ Alkmaar
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Willem II
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar· M. van den Kerkhof 11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.91
SignalHIGHModel58%RiskMediumGap+7.0%
AZ Alkmaar Rest
5 days
Willem II Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
89%1.14
X
4%8.50
2
7%15.38
Double Chance
1X
93%1.03
X2
11%5.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.81
No
47%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.69 + 0.79 = 3.48
Over 1.5
86%1.06
Over 2.5
73%1.25
Over 3.5
53%1.71
Under 1.5
14%8.10
Under 2.5
27%3.65
Under 3.5
47%2.13
Corners
Projected Corners: 8.1 + 2.9 = 11
Over 8.5
71%1.23
Over 9.5
60%1.44
Over 10.5
53%1.76
Under 8.5
29%3.48
Under 9.5
40%2.55
Under 10.5
47%1.95
Cards
Projected Cards: 0.8 + 2 = 2.7
Over 3.5
30%2.80
Over 4.5
14%-
Under 3.5
70%1.37
Under 4.5
86%-

Match Events

29'Tonny VilhenaFoul
32'Jordy ClasieAssist: Mexx Meerdink
64'Calvin Stengs INWeslley Pinto Batista out
64'Jordy Clasie INValdemar Byskov Andreasen out
70'Tonny Vilhena INkasper boogaard out
70'Per van Loon INAlessandro Ciranni out
78'Mexx Meerdink INJizz Hornkamp out
81'Devin HaenAssist: Uriël van Aalst
87'Dave Kwakman INBendegúz Kovács out
87'Ro Zangelo Daal INAyoub Oufkir out
88'Jaden Slory INThomas Verheydt out
90+3'Maxim Dekker INMats Lemmens out

Lineups

AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Coach: L. Echteld
Willem II
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Stegeman
J. De Busser28J. De BusserJ. De Busser
E. Dijkstra22E. DijkstraE. Dijkstra
W. Goes3W. GoesW. Goes
L. Schouten4L. SchoutenL. Schouten
M. Chávez5M. ChávezM. Chávez
J. Clasie8J. ClasieJ. Clasie
P. Koopmeiners6P. KoopmeinersP. Koopmeiners
C. Stengs14C. StengsC. Stengs
D. Kwakman21D. KwakmanD. Kwakman
R. Daal11R. DaalR. Daal
M. Meerdink9M. MeerdinkM. Meerdink
M. Delanghe26M. DelangheM. Delanghe
H. ter Avest5H. ter AvestH. ter Avest
F. Stam3F. StamF. Stam
M. Dekker23M. DekkerM. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On24N. Tjoe-A-OnN. Tjoe-A-On
C. Twigt6C. TwigtC. Twigt
T. Vilhena52T. VilhenaT. Vilhena
Per van Loon22P. van LoonPer van Loon
Uriel van Aalst19U. van AalstUriel van Aalst
J. Slory7J. SloryJ. Slory
D. Haen9D. HaenD. Haen

AZ Alkmaar Substitutes

34M. de WitD
12H. VerhulstG
7Weslley PatatiF
1R. Owusu-OduroG
24A. OufkirF
2S. MaikumaD
31R. IchiharaD
19J. HornkampF
29W. HoedtD
17V. ByskovM
18B. KovacsF

Willem II Substitutes

21W. van der SteenG
31K. de LeeuwG
28T. VerheydtF
17O. MartinF
14Jens MathijsenD
83M. LemmensD
50E. GürbüzF
15A. Et-TaïbiD
2A. CiranniD
8K. BoogaardM

Match Stats

AZ AlkmaarWillem II
67%Ball Possession33%
11Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards1
22Total Shots8
5Shots on Goal2
15Shots off Goal3
16Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots3
7Fouls8
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves4
676Total Passes335
604Passes Accurate258
8Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
Willem IIWillem II
1888Elo Rating 1584
2.83Attack 0.97
1.74Defense 0.43
73%Hit Rate 0%
20.9Shots per Game 11.3
7.8Shots on Target 2.4
9.0Corners per Game 4.3
0.9Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+304 Elo
High Goal Expectancy3.48 goals

Game State Tendencies

AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 1 in first half)
Willem IIWillem II
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

AZ Alkmaar 58%Draw 19%23% Willem II
2.97Avg Goals
59%BTTS Rate
59%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Willem IIWillem II
1W1D3L
05/09/2026
Willem IIExcelsior
03
L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
15/08/2026
Willem IINEC Nijmegen
14
L
08/08/2026
GO Ahead EaglesWillem II
41
L
01/08/2026
Willem IIOFI
21
W

Referee Profile

M. van den Kerkhof · 89 matches analysed

2.9Avg Yellows
3.1Avg Cards
19.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 1% of referees analysed

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven651022:7+1516WWWWW
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar651017:6+1116DWWWW
3FeyenoordFeyenoord642020:7+1314WWDWD
4AjaxAjax641119:7+1213WWLWD
5TwenteTwente641112:5+713WWDWW
6ExcelsiorExcelsior631213:7+610LDWWL
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard631212:14-210LWWLW
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles623115:13+29DDLWD
9GroningenGroningen622212:13-18DDLLW
10NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen621311:12-17LDLWW
11HeerenveenHeerenveen61327:9-26DLDLD
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam612310:13-35LDLDW
13TelstarTelstar61235:11-65DLDLL
14UtrechtUtrecht612311:19-85WDLDL
15CambuurCambuur61149:18-94WDLLL
16PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle61146:17-114LDLWL
17Willem IIWillem II60246:19-132LDLDL
18ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag60156:16-101LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven622:716
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar617:616
3FeyenoordFeyenoord620:714
4AjaxAjax619:713
5TwenteTwente612:513
6ExcelsiorExcelsior613:710
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard612:1410
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles615:139
9GroningenGroningen612:138
10NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen611:127
11HeerenveenHeerenveen67:96
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam610:135
13TelstarTelstar65:115
14UtrechtUtrecht611:195
15CambuurCambuur69:184
16PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle66:174
17Willem IIWillem II66:192
18ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag66:161
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AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Eredivisie fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Eredivisie

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Key Factors for This Match

AZ Alkmaar have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. AZ Alkmaar and Willem II have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.97 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.