Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa Prediction

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Al-Gharafa
Alinma Stadium, Jeddah·Ma Ning 26/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.25
SignalGOODModel73%SurpriseMediumGap-9.6%
Al-Ahli Jeddah Rest
2 days
Al-Gharafa Rest
3 days

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa: the result in context

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Gharafa 2-1 in the AFC Champions League Elite on 26 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Al-Ahli Jeddah had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Al-Gharafa.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.5 a game across 4 meetings, with both teams scoring in 3. Referee Ma Ning averages 4.42 cards a game, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
70%1.25
X
19%5.96
2
11%8.65
Double Chance
1X
89%1.06
X2
30%3.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.67
No
47%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.23 + 0.83 = 3.06
Over 1.5
82%1.08
Over 2.5
65%1.33
Over 3.5
43%1.87
Under 1.5
18%6.55
Under 2.5
35%3.10
Under 3.5
57%1.89
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

4'Ivan ToneyAssist: Eduard Spertsyan
18'Fabricio DíazFoul
29'Ivan ToneyDissent
42'Hyun-Soo JangFoul
43'Hassan Aladin INYacine Brahimi out
45'Rayyan Ahmed Al-Ali INAyoub Al-Oui out
53'Florinel ComanAssist: Saifeldeen Fadlalla
63'Artem Bondarenko INValentin Atangana Edoa out
64'Francisco Trincão INMeshal Al Materai out
64'Eduard Spertsyan INFiras Al-Buraikan out
67'Florinel Coman INAmjed Nasar Mohamed out
70'Seydou SanoFoul
74'Saad Yaslam BalobaidFoul
77'Seydou Sano
79'Adam Ounas INDame Traore out
86'Matheus Gonçalves Martins
89'Abdulrahman Al-RashidiDissent
90+2'Matheus Gonçalves Martins INAbdullah Radif out
90+2'Mohammed Sulaiman INRayan Hamed Hamidou out
90+3'Ferjani SassiDissent

Lineups

Al-Ahli Jeddah
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Pusic
Al-Gharafa
5-4-1Coach: Pedro Martins
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating6.33
Abdulrahman Al Sanbi6.61A. Al Sanbi
Saeed Baattia6.915S. Baattia
Mohammed Bakor6.75M. Bakor
Ibañez7.03Ibañez
Saad Yaslam6.231S. Yaslam
A. Bondarenko6.819A. Bondarenko
Ziyad Al Johani6.630Z. Al Johani
Trincão6.27Trincão
E. Spertsyan7.78E. Spertsyan
Matheus Gonçalves8.220M. Gonçalves
I. Toney7.917I. Toney
A. Kone5.531A. Kone
Abdulrahman Faiz Al Rashidi5.82A. Faiz Al Rashidi
S. Sano5.54S. Sano
Jang Hyun-Soo6.120J. Hyun-Soo
Saifeldeen Hassan Fadlalla7.023S. Hassan Fadlalla
Rayyan Al Ali6.026R. Al Ali
A. Ounas6.496A. Ounas
F. Sassi6.613F. Sassi
F. Díaz6.529F. Díaz
F. Coman7.87F. Coman
A. Hassan6.490A. Hassan

Al-Ahli Jeddah Substitutes

62Abdullah Abdo
9Feras Al Brikan64'for Eduard Spertsyan6.7
11Meshal Al Mutairi64'for Francisco Trincão6.5
6V. Atangana Edoa63'for Artem Bondarenko6.4
4Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
46Rayane Hamidou90+2'for Mohammed Sulaiman
24A. Kinteh
21Abdullah Radif90+2'for Matheus Gonçalves Martins
25Faisal Ibrahim Ahmed Fallatah
72Salman Al-Jadani
87Ramez Al Attar

Al-Gharafa Substitutes

34M. Gamal
16Jamil Friarkh
8Y. Brahimi43'for Hassan Aladin6.8
18Ayoub Al Oui45'for Rayyan Ahmed Al-Ali6.2
97A. Nasar Mohamed67'for Florinel Coman6.3
1Khalifa Ababacar
6Dame Traoré79'for Adam Ounas6.1
19Yousef Saaed Ahmed
22Abdirashid Saeed Hassan
49R. Faragalla

Match Stats

Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Gharafa
62%Ball Possession38%
3Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
11Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal8
8Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
10Fouls14
3Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves0
455Total Passes272
398Passes Accurate210
14Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah
Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa
1825Elo Rating 1443
3.15Attack 1.63
1.80Defense 1.29
86%Hit Rate 14%
13.6Shots per Game 15.6
7.7Shots on Target 5.1
3.2Corners per Game 6.5
0.9Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+382 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.07 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 1 in first half)
Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah2Wins · 50%
Draws250%
Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa0Wins · 0%
3.5Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored3 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

AFC Champions League Elite20/10/2025
Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Gharafa
40
AFC Champions League Elite17/02/2025
Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Gharafa
42
AFC Champions League13/03/2018
Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Gharafa
11
AFC Champions League05/03/2018
Al-GharafaAl-Ahli Jeddah
11

Referee Profile

Ma Ning114 matches

4.42Cards per match
4.08Yellow cards per match
0.34Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ma Ning4.42
Other referees3.75

4.42 cards a match, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.75).

Cards come from 102 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

AFC Champions League Elite 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Al AinAl Ain330010:2+89WWW
2Shabab Al Ahli DubaiShabab Al Ahli Dubai33005:1+49WWW
3Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah32106:3+37WWD
4Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hilal Saudi FC22004:1+36WW
5Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC32015:3+26LWW
6Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Qadisiyah FC31204:3+15DDW
7Al-Ittihad FCAl-Ittihad FC31114:404WLD
8Al-NassrAl-Nassr21013:5-23WL
9NeftchiNeftchi31023:5-23LLW
10Al Quwa Al JawiyaAl Quwa Al Jawiya31022:5-33WLL
11Al ShamalAl Shamal20201:102DD
12PakhtakorPakhtakor30212:3-12LDD
13Tractor SaziTractor Sazi30121:3-21LDL
14Al SaddAl Sadd30121:6-51DLL
15Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa30033:6-30LLL
16Al-Wasl FCAl-Wasl FC20022:5-30LL

About the Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa forecast

This is a AFC Champions League Elite cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Gharafa in the AFC Champions League Elite table

The table shows a wide gap: Al-Ahli Jeddah are 3rd in the AFC Champions League Elite, while Al-Gharafa sit 15th, 7 points behind. League goal record so far: Al-Ahli Jeddah 6-3, Al-Gharafa 3-6. The full standings are on the AFC Champions League Elite Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.