Avellino vs Padova Prediction

Serie BItaly Italy · Regular Season - 8
Avellino
0-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Padova
Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino·Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi 24/10/2026
AvellinoAvellino
0-1
Finished
PadovaPadova

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.8%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+4.5%
Avellino Rest
5 days
Padova Rest
7 days

Avellino vs Padova: the result in context

Padova beat Avellino 1-0 in the Serie B on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 4 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.15
X
30%3.18
2
27%3.42
Double Chance
1X
73%1.29
X2
57%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.80
No
48%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.05 = 2.52
Over 1.5
71%1.33
Over 2.5
47%2.09
Over 3.5
26%3.75
Under 1.5
29%3.20
Under 2.5
53%1.74
Under 3.5
74%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.5 = 10
Over 8.5
65%1.54
Over 9.5
53%1.91
Over 10.5
41%2.48
Under 8.5
35%2.31
Under 9.5
47%1.80
Under 10.5
59%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%1.44
Over 4.5
45%1.83
Under 3.5
36%2.67
Under 4.5
55%1.83

Match Events

20'Emanuele ZuelliAssist: Gabriele Artistico
41'Giovanni·GiuntiFoul
41'Pietro FusiDissent
45'Luca Palmiero INL. Di Maggio out
59'Alessandro Di Bitonto INArmando Izzo out
59'Walid Cheddira INAndrea Favilli out
66'Pietro Fusi INKevin Varas out
74'Martin Palumbo INTommaso Biasci out
77'Gabriele Artistico INMattia Bortolussi out
77'Giovanni·Giunti INMarco Pompetti out
82'Brando Moruzzi INS. Di Paolo out
90+2'Luca Moro INAlexander Seghetti out
90+2'Emanuele Zuelli INNicolas Galazzi out

Lineups

Avellino
3-5-2Coach: A. Nesta
Padova
3-5-2Coach: N. Calabro
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating7.02
T. Martinelli6.650T. Martinelli
A. Di Bitonto7.15A. Di Bitonto
M. Venturi7.423M. Venturi
P. Enrici7.356P. Enrici
F. Missori6.32F. Missori
M. Palumbo6.720M. Palumbo
L. Palmiero6.96L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio7.239M. Besaggio
B. Moruzzi7.027B. Moruzzi
W. Cheddira5.99W. Cheddira
R. Russo6.810R. Russo
A. Sorrentino8.522A. Sorrentino
F. Sgarbi7.032F. Sgarbi
M. Lovato6.85M. Lovato
Alessandro Dellavalle7.527A. Dellavalle
L. Carissoni6.324L. Carissoni
E. Zuelli8.221E. Zuelli
G. Giunti7.26G. Giunti
P. Fusi6.78P. Fusi
A. Capelli6.617A. Capelli
L. Moro6.39L. Moro
G. Artistico7.190G. Artistico

Avellino Substitutes

29T. Cancellotti
14T. Biasci74'for Martin Palumbo6.3
8L. Di Maggio45'for Luca Palmiero7.2
77S. Di Paolo82'replaced by Brando Moruzzi
16G. Faticanti
99A. Favilli59'for Walid Cheddira6.3
1A. Iannarilli
4A. Izzo59'for Alessandro Di Bitonto6.6
7L. Pandolfi
3M. Sala
24D. Sounas
30E. Adamo

Padova Substitutes

72C. Faedo
20M. Bortolussi77'for Gabriele Artistico6.5
34M. Cocchi
23F. Di Mariano
25N. Galazzi90+2'for Emanuele Zuelli
1L. Mouquet
58C. Pastina
12S. Scaglia
11A. Seghetti90+2'for Luca Moro
18E. Silletti
7K. Varas66'for Pietro Fusi6.8

Match Stats

AvellinoPadova
69%Ball Possession31%
11Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards2
28Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal1
14Shots off Goal7
20Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots0
6Fouls14
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves7
599Total Passes276
531Passes Accurate197
13Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

AvellinoAvellino
PadovaPadova
1568Elo Rating 1536
1.31Attack 0.81
1.67Defense 1.82
19%Hit Rate 41%
18.0Shots per Game 10.5
4.8Shots on Target 2.1
4.8Corners per Game 4.5
1.6Cards per Game 1.9

Game State Tendencies

AvellinoAvellino
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PadovaPadova
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

AvellinoAvellino1Wins · 25%
Draws250%
PadovaPadova1Wins · 25%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4

Previous meetings

Serie B07/03/2026
AvellinoPadova
10
Serie B30/09/2025
PadovaAvellino
22
Serie C - Girone A09/06/2021
AvellinoPadova
01
Serie C - Girone A06/06/2021
PadovaAvellino
11

Recent Form

AvellinoAvellino
3W2D5L
18/10/2026
CesenaAvellino
11
D09/10/2026
AvellinoSampdoria
41
W19/09/2026
AscoliAvellino
31
L13/09/2026
AvellinoPalermo
11
D
06/09/2026
ModenaAvellino
01
W
29/08/2026
AvellinoVicenza Virtus
30
W
22/08/2026
AvellinoArezzo
12
L14/08/2026
MonzaAvellino
30
L
08/08/2026
AvellinoTorino
1131
L
01/08/2026
LazioAvellino
63
L
PadovaPadova
3W2D5L
17/10/2026
PadovaVirtus Entella
12
L11/10/2026
PadovaCarrarese
02
L19/09/2026
PalermoPadova
21
L
12/09/2026
PadovaAscoli
10
W
06/09/2026
CremonesePadova
31
L
29/08/2026
PadovaHellas Verona
11
D
23/08/2026
PisaPadova
01
W15/08/2026
UdinesePadova
10
L
07/08/2026
MonzaPadova
33
D
01/08/2026
CittadellaPadova
02
W

Referee Profile

Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi97 matches

4.24Cards per match
4.11Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
28.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi4.24
Other referees4.71

4.24 cards a match, 0.47 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.71).

Cards come from 71 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PalermoPalermo871018:8+1022WWWWD
2MantovaMantova852114:8+617WLWDW
3ModenaModena851215:8+716WLWWD
4AscoliAscoli843114:6+815WDDWL
5BeneventoBenevento842213:7+614WDWWW
6PisaPisa842215:10+514DWWDL
7SudtirolSudtirol834110:7+313DLDWD
8AvellinoAvellino832312:9+311LDWLD
9PadovaPadova83147:10-310WLLLW
10ArezzoArezzo83148:17-910LWDLW
11Hellas VeronaHellas Verona823315:13+29DDLWL
12Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella823310:9+19LWDDW
13Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus823311:15-49WDLLD
14Juve StabiaJuve Stabia83329:8+18WWDDD
15CesenaCesena81528:12-48LDLDD
16EmpoliEmpoli82157:13-67LDLLL
17CarrareseCarrarese82157:9-27LWWLL
18CremoneseCremonese81346:11-56LLDDD
19SampdoriaSampdoria81258:16-85DLLWL
20CatanzaroCatanzaro81169:20-114LDLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1PalermoPalermo818:822
2MantovaMantova814:817
3ModenaModena815:816
4AscoliAscoli814:615
5BeneventoBenevento813:714
6PisaPisa815:1014
7SudtirolSudtirol810:713
8AvellinoAvellino812:911
9PadovaPadova87:1010
10ArezzoArezzo88:1710
11Hellas VeronaHellas Verona815:139
12Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella810:99
13Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus811:159
14Juve StabiaJuve Stabia89:88
15CesenaCesena88:128
16EmpoliEmpoli87:137
17CarrareseCarrarese87:97
18CremoneseCremonese86:116
19SampdoriaSampdoria88:165
20CatanzaroCatanzaro89:204
PromotionRelegation

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About the Avellino vs Padova forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Avellino and Padova in the Serie B table

Avellino and Padova are close in the Serie B table, 8th and 9th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Avellino 12-9, Padova 7-10. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.