Leones del Norte vs Orense SC Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 28
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
84%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+1.6%
Leones del Norte Rest
3 days
Orense SC Rest
4 days
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC: the result in context
Leones del Norte beat Orense SC 1-0 in the Liga Pro on 3 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
155%1.93
X32%3.20
213%4.00
Double Chance
1X87%1.22
X245%1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%2.02
No49%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.96 = 2.64
Over 1.574%1.42
Over 2.550%2.33
Over 3.532%4.31
Under 1.526%2.63
Under 2.550%1.57
Under 3.568%1.19
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
12'Penalty cancelledOscar Quiñonez
38'Alexis Nicolás MonserratFoul
41'Emiliano GriffaDissent
45'Dario Pazmino INThomas Amilivia out
59'Renny Jaramillo INGonzalo Rostagno out
59'Erick Pluas INChristian Alejandro Ortíz Calle out
61'Cristhian SolanoAssist: Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio
69'Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio INBrian Gastón Kreiman out
78'Pedro Velasco INJ. Valencia out
78'Beder CaicedoFoul
79'Emiliano Griffa INElian Pepinos out
79'Cristhian Solano INJonathan Ronaldo Arroyo out
83'Valentín Burgoa INLuis Miguel Garcés Carrion out
83'Andrés Parrales INWilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga out
90+1'Patricio Madero INO. Cabeza out
Lineups
Leones del NorteOrense SC
4-2-3-1Coach: H. TorresAvg ratingAvg rating
45M. Ramírez
7M. Luque
23N. Monserrat
2J. Morán
50M. Yordan Caicedo Orobio
5T. Coppo
6E. Griffa
29P. Madero
70D. Pazmiño
99C. Solano
40J. Anangono
12R. Silva
31P. Velasco
24G. Achilier
45O. Quiñonez
15B. Caicedo
14E. Pluas
25R. Jaramillo
11A. Herrera
26N. Molina
30V. Burgoa
10M. ParralesLeones del Norte Substitutes
17T. Amilivia45'for Dario Pazmino
32A. Aguas
18J. Arellano
22J. Arroyo
4R. Arroyo79'for Cristhian Solano
13O. Cabeza90+1'for Patricio Madero
33A. Chacon
14A. Rosales
25B. Kreiman69'for Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio
31G. Padilla
19O. Pepinos79'for Emiliano Griffa
3F. Vargas
Orense SC Substitutes
21G. Rostagno59'for Renny Jaramillo
2B. Quiñonez
4M. Quiñonez
51C. OrtÃz59'for Erick Pluas
22J. Ortiz
57S. Mairongo
50E. Hernandez
53L. Garces83'for Valentín Burgoa
23Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga83'for Andrés Parrales
19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes
74C. Barrio
88J. Valencia78'for Pedro Velasco
Match Stats
Leones del NorteOrense SC 53%Ball Possession47%
6Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
20Total Shots4
8Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal0
10Shots Inside Box3
10Shots Outside Box1
4Blocked Shots3
14Fouls11
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves7
347Total Passes314
278Passes Accurate233
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Team Comparison
Leones del NorteOrense SC1489Elo Rating 1477
0.61Attack 1.61
1.00Defense 2.16
0%Hit Rate 27%
15.8Shots per Game 12.2
4.1Shots on Target 5.4
5.0Corners per Game 3.9
2.5Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Leones del Norte- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Orense SC- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.7 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 2 meetings, all competitions
Leones del Norte1Wins · 50%Draws00%
Orense SC1Wins · 50%
1Wins · 50%1.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2
Previous meetings
09/05/2026Orense SCLeones del Norte20
22/08/2025Leones del NorteOrense SC10
Recent Form
Leones del Norte3W3D4L
31/08/2026
EmelecLeones del Norte
22/08/2026EmelecLeones del Norte21
LLeones del Norte
Independiente del Valle23
L15/08/2026
Manta FCLeones del Norte02
W08/08/2026
AucasLeones del Norte
03/08/2026AucasLeones del Norte30
LLeones del Norte
Barcelona SC11
D30/07/2026
LDU de QuitoLeones del Norte
LDU de QuitoLeones del Norte60
L26/07/2026
Delfin SCLeones del Norte
Delfin SCLeones del Norte01
W23/07/2026Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FC11
D18/07/2026LDU de QuitoLeones del Norte
LDU de QuitoLeones del Norte01
W16/07/2026Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
Leones del NorteDeportivo Cuenca11
DOrense SC2W2D6L
30/08/2026Orense SC
Macara
23/08/2026Orense SCMacara12
LBarcelona SCOrense SC30
L16/08/2026Orense SCDeportivo Cuenca
09/08/2026Orense SCDeportivo Cuenca20
WDelfin SCOrense SC11
D01/08/2026
LibertadOrense SC30
L26/07/2026Orense SCIndependiente del Valle23
L23/07/2026Orense SCAucas21
W20/07/2026
Mushuc Runa SCOrense SC21
L17/07/2026Orense SCEmelec02
L11/07/2026Manta FCOrense SC
Manta FCOrense SC00
DReferee Profile
4.96Cards per match
4.66Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.96 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).
Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LDLLD |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | WLLDL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | LWLLL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WWDDD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | WDDLL |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Placement Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 43:39 | +4 | 50 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 38:43 | -5 | 46 | WLWDW |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37:40 | -3 | 43 | WLLDL |
| 10 | Emelec | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 31:41 | -10 | 42 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 34 | 43:39 | 50 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 34 | 38:43 | 46 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 34 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 10 | Emelec | 34 | 31:41 | 42 |
Liga Pro: Relegation Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 30:39 | -9 | 44 | WWDDD |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 39:46 | -7 | 40 | LDLDL |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 42:50 | -8 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 34 | 11 | 3 | 20 | 33:46 | -13 | 36 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 27:40 | -13 | 35 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 22:49 | -27 | 27 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 30:39 | 44 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 39:46 | 40 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 42:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 34 | 33:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 34 | 27:40 | 35 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 22:49 | 27 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica 29/08/26
- Aucas vs Libertad 30/08/26
- LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC 02/09/26
- Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle 03/09/26
- Libertad vs Emelec 04/09/26
- Independiente del Valle vs Macara 06/09/26
- Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC 12/09/26
- LDU de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca 13/09/26
About the Leones del Norte vs Orense SC forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Leones del Norte and Orense SC in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Leones del Norte are 8th and Orense SC 13th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Leones del Norte 31-32, Orense SC 36-47. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Leones del Norte and Orense SC have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.