Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction

Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala·Yerson Zambrano, Ecuador 26/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.67
SignalGOODModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+10.5%
Orense SC Rest
2 days
Independiente del Valle Rest
3 days

Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle: the result in context

Independiente del Valle beat Orense SC 3-2 in the Liga Pro on 26 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Orense SC.

Independiente del Valle have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.1 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
16%4.75
X
19%3.60
2
65%1.67
Double Chance
1X
35%2.06
X2
84%1.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.87
No
49%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.91 + 1.83 = 2.74
Over 1.5
77%1.30
Over 2.5
51%1.95
Over 3.5
30%3.35
Under 1.5
23%3.20
Under 2.5
49%1.80
Under 3.5
70%1.28
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

27'D. GuaguaAssist: J. Viacava
43'R. BrionesFoul
43'R. JaramiloUnsportsmanlike conduct
45+1'D. GuaguaFoul
46'E. Pata INA. Rodriguez out
46'R. Jaramilo INE. Pluas out
46'R. Schunke INM. Carabajal out
53'M. ParralesAssist: M. Bermudez
54'M. Parrales INA. Mena out
57'R. Briones INH. Quintana out
57'D. Guagua INJ. Sornoza out
61'H. Quintana
63'M. PerelloAssist: J. Angulo
64'S. VasquezAssist: E. Pluas
74'P. VelascoFoul
74'M. ParralesUnsportsmanlike conduct
76'M. Bermudez INE. S. Zambrano Pesantez out
79'M. Perello INE. Quintero out
81'J. ViacavaFoul
83'G. Rostagno INC. Ortiz out
90+2'A. HerreraUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Orense SC
4-3-3Coach: Hernan Torres
Independiente del Valle
4-1-4-1Coach: Joaquin Papa
Avg rating6.69
Avg rating6.81
Jordy Ortiz6.722J. Ortiz
Pedro VelascoC6.231P. Velasco
Alan Lorenzo6.25A. Lorenzo
Steven Quiñónez6.54S. Quiñónez
Beder Caicedo6.015B. Caicedo
Sergio Vásquez7.07S. Vásquez
Gonzalo Martin Rostagno6.721G. Martin Rostagno
Renny Jaramillo6.725R. Jaramillo
Agustin Herrera6.711A. Herrera
Miguel Parrales7.310M. Parrales
Michael Bermúdez7.519M. Bermúdez
Aldair Quintana6.21A. Quintana
Jhon Espinoza7.04J. Espinoza
Richard SchunkeC6.95R. Schunke
Juan Viacava6.223J. Viacava
Gustavo Cortez6.515G. Cortez
Jhegson Méndez7.232J. Méndez
Matías Perello7.211M. Perello
Darwin Guagua7.355D. Guagua
Ronald Briones6.716R. Briones
Emerson Pata6.231E. Pata
Juan Angulo7.550J. Angulo

Orense SC Substitutes

14Erick Plúas46'for R. Jaramilo6.9
13Ángel Mena54'for M. Parrales6.7
54Erick Zambrano76'replaced by M. Bermudez6.9
51Christian Ortíz6.3
12Rolando Silva
6Stéfano Callegari
2Bryan Quinonez
24Gabriel Achilier
50Eddie Hernandez
57Sleyder Mairongo
53Luis Garces
33David Quintero

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

14Mateo Carabajal46'for R. Schunke6.5
17Arón Rodríguez46'for E. Pata6.6
28Hugo Quintana57'for R. Briones61'8.5
10Junior Sornoza57'replaced by D. Guagua6.3
56Edwin Quintero79'for M. Perello6.2
12Eduardo Bores
19Layan Loor
13Daykol Romero
33Andy Velasco
6Jordy Alcivar
99Djorkaeff Reasco
52Yandri Vasquez

Match Stats

Orense SCIndependiente del Valle
58%Ball Possession42%
11Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal6
10Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box6
8Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
13Fouls11
3Goalkeeper Saves3
440Total Passes312
356Passes Accurate231
81%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

Orense SCOrense SC
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
1473Elo Rating 1812
1.52Attack 1.58
2.25Defense 2.86
23%Hit Rate 69%
13.7Shots per Game 15.6
6.0Shots on Target 5.5
4.3Corners per Game 5.8
1.2Cards per Game 0.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Orense SCOrense SC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Orense SCOrense SC0Wins · 0%
Draws330%
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle7Wins · 70%
2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga Pro04/04/2026
Independiente del ValleOrense SC
20
Liga Pro24/11/2025
Independiente del ValleOrense SC
00
Liga Pro18/10/2025
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle
12
Liga Pro17/08/2025
Independiente del ValleOrense SC
21
Liga Pro27/04/2025
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle
12
Liga Pro01/12/2024
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle
00
Liga Pro03/06/2024
Independiente del ValleOrense SC
10
Liga Pro26/11/2023
Independiente del ValleOrense SC
22
Liga Pro12/06/2023
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle
02
Liga Pro06/08/2022
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle
12

Recent Form

Orense SCOrense SC
3W1D6L
23/07/2026
Orense SCAucas
21
W
20/07/2026
Mushuc Runa SCOrense SC
21
L
17/07/2026
Orense SCEmelec
02
L
11/07/2026
Manta FCOrense SC
00
D
07/07/2026
Orense SCTecnico Universitario
12
L
02/07/2026
LDU de QuitoOrense SC
30
L
27/05/2026
CuniburoOrense SC
21
L
23/05/2026
Orense SCUniversidad Catolica
12
L
19/05/2026
Guayaquil City FCOrense SC
01
W
09/05/2026
Orense SCLeones del Norte
20
W
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
9W0D1L
22/07/2026
Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario
30
W
20/07/2026
Independiente del ValleEmelec
61
W
16/07/2026
AucasIndependiente del Valle
03
W
11/07/2026
Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle
14
W
09/07/2026
Santo DomingoIndependiente del Valle
02
W
04/07/2026
Independiente del ValleManta FC
40
W
31/05/2026
Guayaquil City FCIndependiente del Valle
24
W
28/05/2026
Independiente del ValleRosario Central
10
W
23/05/2026
Independiente del ValleLibertad
23
L
20/05/2026
Independiente del ValleLibertad Asuncion
41
W

Referee Profile

Yerson Zambrano78 matches

5.11Cards per match
4.70Yellow cards per match
0.41Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Yerson Zambrano5.11
Other referees5.03

5.11 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.03).

Cards come from 70 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Pro 2026

Liga Pro: Regular season

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle30242473:33+4074WWDLW
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica30149751:27+2451DLDWL
3MacaraMacara30156941:33+851DWWWW
4AucasAucas30148833:28+550LWLDL
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito301371031:24+746DLLDW
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC301111832:25+744DLWLL
7LibertadLibertad301181133:34-141LDLWW
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte301091131:32-139DWWLL
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC301091133:36-339DDWLW
10EmelecEmelec301091125:34-939WLLWL
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338WLLDL
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236WLWWD
13Orense SCOrense SC30961536:47-1133LDWDD
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432LDWLL
15Delfin SCDelfin SC30771619:31-1228LWLWW
16Manta FCManta FC30561917:42-2521WWLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3073:3374
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3051:2751
3MacaraMacara3041:3351
4AucasAucas3033:2850
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3031:2446
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3032:2544
7LibertadLibertad3033:3441
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte3031:3239
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC3033:3639
10EmelecEmelec3025:3439
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC3035:3838
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca3025:3736
13Orense SCOrense SC3036:4733
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario3028:4232
15Delfin SCDelfin SC3019:3128
16Manta FCManta FC3017:4221

Liga Pro: Championship Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle35273581:37+4484WWDLW
2MacaraMacara36207952:37+1567DWWWW
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3614121056:35+2154DLDWL
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito361591238:32+654DLLDW
5AucasAucas361591240:42-254LWLDL
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3512131039:32+749DLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3581:3784
2MacaraMacara3652:3767
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3656:3554
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3638:3254
5AucasAucas3640:4254
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3539:3249

Liga Pro: Relegation Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
11Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca361381533:42-947WLWWD
12Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC3610131343:50-743WLLDL
13Orense SCOrense SC361091743:53-1039LDWDD
14Delfin SCDelfin SC361081831:43-1238LWLWW
15Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario361142135:49-1437LDWLL
16Manta FCManta FC36962127:52-2533WWLLW
#TeamMPGPts
11Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca3633:4247
12Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC3643:5043
13Orense SCOrense SC3643:5339
14Delfin SCDelfin SC3631:4338
15Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario3635:4937
16Manta FCManta FC3627:5233
PromotionRelegation

About the Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle forecast

The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Orense SC and Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro table

The table shows a wide gap: Independiente del Valle are 1st in the Liga Pro, while Orense SC sit 13th, 41 points behind. League goal record so far: Orense SC 36-47, Independiente del Valle 73-33. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.