Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction

Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing·Lei Zhang, China 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel74%SurpriseMediumGap-2.4%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Beijing Guoan Rest
4 days
Qingdao Youth Island Rest
7 days

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island: result, form and history

Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 in the Super League on 18 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Beijing Guoan had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Qingdao Youth Island.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and both sides scored in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
68%1.40
X
19%4.85
2
13%6.50
Double Chance
1X
87%1.10
X2
32%2.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.58
No
42%2.22
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.23 + 0.93 = 3.16
Over 1.5
84%1.11
Over 2.5
66%1.40
Over 3.5
44%2.04
Under 1.5
16%5.58
Under 2.5
34%2.70
Under 3.5
56%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 3.7 = 9.9
Over 8.5
63%1.34
Over 9.5
52%1.60
Over 10.5
40%2.00
Under 8.5
37%2.81
Under 9.5
48%2.15
Under 10.5
60%1.72
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.5 = 4.2
Over 3.5
60%-
Over 4.5
41%-
Under 3.5
40%-
Under 4.5
59%-

Match Events

21'F. Abreu INZhang Xizhe out
48'Meng JingchaoFoul
62'Meng Jingchao INYang Zhanpeng out
67'Bai Yang INLi Lei out
67'Wang Gang INYue Tze-Nam out
78'Zhang YuningAssist: Serginho
82'Lin Liangming INDeng Jiefu out
90+3'Cao YongjingFoul

Lineups

Beijing Guoan
4-4-2
Qingdao Youth Island
4-1-4-1
Avg rating7.09
Avg rating6.72
Hou Sen6.734H. Sen
Gang Wang6.927G. Wang
Uroš Spajić7.725U. Spajić
Guilherme Ramos7.35G. Ramos
Yang Bai7.726Y. Bai
Yongjing Cao8.237Y. Cao
Aboubacar Konte7.58A. Konte
Sai Erjini'ao7.77S. Erjini'ao
Lin Liangming6.911L. Liangming
Fabio AbreuC6.329F. Abreu
Zhang Yuning6.69Z. Yuning
Shibo Liu7.926S. Liu
Yu Dong6.719Y. Dong
Samir Memisevic6.95S. Memisevic
Bruno Viana6.72B. Viana
Gengrui Wang6.322G. Wang
Chengdong Zhang7.228C. Zhang
Nelson Luz6.710N. Luz
Xiuwei Zhang6.78X. Zhang
Jingchao Meng6.321J. Meng
DavidsonC6.211Davidson
Aziz6.59Aziz

Beijing Guoan Substitutes

10Zhang Xizhe21'for F. Abreu6.6
21Tze-Nam Yue67'for Wang Gang6.7
4Li Lei67'for Bai Yang6.5
22Han Jiaqi
47Deng Jiefu82'for Lin Liangming
30Shuangjie Fan
24Abdugheni Abduhamit
43Xia Xiaoyu
41Cheng Xi
36Feifan Jia
6Chi Zhongguo

Qingdao Youth Island Substitutes

30Yang Zhanpeng62'for Meng Jingchao6.5
37Dong Hang
33Zhicheng Liu
4Elnizar Lohman
20Longhai He
15Peng Wang
32Haifeng Ding
3Honglüe Zhao
35Song Nan
31Xie Chujun
18Barak Braunshtain
29Jia Weiwei

Match Stats

Beijing GuoanQingdao Youth Island
74%Ball Possession26%
5Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
15Total Shots7
4Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal6
13Shots Inside Box3
2Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots1
8Fouls17
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
601Total Passes203
515Passes Accurate118
86%Pass Accuracy58%

Team Comparison

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan
Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island
1777Elo Rating 1564
2.42Attack 0.74
2.05Defense 1.25
100%Hit Rate 0%
12.1Shots per Game 11.5
4.9Shots on Target 3.7
4.5Corners per Game 4.6
2.2Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+213 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.15 goals
📈BTTS Trend86% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan4Wins · 57%
Draws343%
Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island0Wins · 0%
3.3Avg Goals
86%Both teams scored6 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Super League19/05/2026
Qingdao Youth IslandBeijing Guoan
11
Super League16/08/2025
Qingdao Youth IslandBeijing Guoan
13
FA Cup22/07/2025
Qingdao Youth IslandBeijing Guoan
2141
Super League17/06/2025
Beijing GuoanQingdao Youth Island
10
Super League11/08/2024
Qingdao Youth IslandBeijing Guoan
22
Super League21/04/2024
Beijing GuoanQingdao Youth Island
41
FA Cup26/07/2023
Qingdao Youth IslandBeijing Guoan
14

Referee Profile

Lei Zhang9 matches analysed

4.38Cards per match
4.20Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
27.1Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 40% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Full referee stats

League Table

Super League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Chengdu Better CityChengdu Better City29157751:35+1652LLLDW
2Dalian ZhixingDalian Zhixing291541046:43+349WWWWD
3Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan291410557:36+2147WWWDD
4Shandong LunengShandong Luneng29155957:47+1044WWDDW
5SHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG29138850:36+1442WWWDW
6Yunnan YukunYunnan Yukun291171157:60-340DDLWL
7Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island29815632:38-639DLLDD
8Shanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua291451063:50+1337LWWWL
9Chongqing Tongliang LongChongqing Tongliang Long29812931:34-336WDDLD
10Hangzhou GreentownHangzhou Greentown291161251:54-334WLLWL
11Sichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu29951539:51-1232WLDDL
12Tianjin TedaTianjin Teda291181039:35+431LWWWW
13Shenyang UrbanShenyang Urban29851641:52-1129LWDLL
14Henan JianyeHenan Jianye298101138:42-428LLDDD
15Wuhan Three TownsWuhan Three Towns295121244:55-1122LLDLD
16Qingdao JonoonQingdao Jonoon29632034:62-2814LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Chengdu Better CityChengdu Better City2951:3552
2Dalian ZhixingDalian Zhixing2946:4349
3Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan2957:3647
4Shandong LunengShandong Luneng2957:4744
5SHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG2950:3642
6Yunnan YukunYunnan Yukun2957:6040
7Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island2932:3839
8Shanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua2963:5037
9Chongqing Tongliang LongChongqing Tongliang Long2931:3436
10Hangzhou GreentownHangzhou Greentown2951:5434
11Sichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu2939:5132
12Tianjin TedaTianjin Teda2939:3531
13Shenyang UrbanShenyang Urban2941:5229
14Henan JianyeHenan Jianye2938:4228
15Wuhan Three TownsWuhan Three Towns2944:5522
16Qingdao JonoonQingdao Jonoon2934:6214
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in the Super League table

In the Super League table, Beijing Guoan are 3rd and Qingdao Youth Island 7th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Beijing Guoan 57-36, Qingdao Youth Island 32-38. The full standings are on the Super League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.