Benfica vs Celtic Prediction
World · League Stage - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel76%SurpriseMediumGap-0.8%
Benfica Rest
4 days
Celtic Rest
4 days
Benfica vs Celtic: the result in context
Benfica beat Celtic 4-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 15 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Benfica had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Celtic.
Referee Nikola Dabanovic averages 3.79 cards a game, 0.68 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
181%1.20
X14%7.30
25%12.00
Double Chance
1X95%1.04
X219%4.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.75
No49%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.07 + 0.79 = 2.86
Over 1.584%1.08
Over 2.566%1.32
Over 3.545%1.85
Under 1.516%7.00
Under 2.534%3.25
Under 3.555%1.97
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.4 = 9
Over 8.559%1.28
Over 9.543%1.53
Over 10.533%1.86
Under 8.541%3.20
Under 9.557%2.40
Under 10.567%1.89
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.3
Over 3.563%2.13
Over 4.543%2.97
Under 3.537%1.69
Under 4.557%1.36
Match Events
5'Jhon Durán(Penalty)
23'Alexander BahAssist: Gianluca Prestianni
36'Jhon DuránAssist: Gianluca Prestianni
44'Samuel DahlFoul
45'Kasper Hogh INHaissem Hassan out
45'Sebastian Tounekti INCallum Osmand out
57'Oliver Sorensen INBenjamin Nygren out
57'Mika Baur INAlex Oxlade-Chamberlain out
63'Camilo DuranAssist: Haissem Hassan
64'Heorhii Sudakov INClaudio Echeverri out
64'Samuel Dahl INSouffian El Karouani out
67'Jhon Durán INVangelis Pavlidis out
68'Dodi Lukebakio INAndreas Schjelderup out
69'Alexander BahFoul
77'Colby Donovan INJordan Lotomba out
80'Alexander Bah INAlessandro Circati out
85'João PalhinhaFoul
89'Vangelis PavlidisAssist: Tomás Araújo
Lineups
BenficaCeltic
4-2-3-1Coach: M. O'NeillAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Trubin
6A. Bah
44T. Araújo
2C. Lenglet
26S. Dahl
8F. Aursnes
36J. Palhinha
11D. Lukebakio
10H. Sudakov
25G. Prestianni
22J. Durán
1V. Sinisalo
51C. Donovan
47D. Murray
6A. Trusty
63K. Tierney
42C. McGregor
22M. Baur
11C. Durán
18O. Sørensen
17S. Tounekti
9K. HøghBenfica Substitutes
18L. Barreiro
72A. Cabral
3A. Circati80'for Alexander Bah
30C. Echeverri64'for Heorhii Sudakov
34S. El Karouani64'for Samuel Dahl
88Tiago Freitas
33Gabriel Indio
16Manu
14V. Pavlidis67'for Jhon Durán89'
27Rafa
21A. Schjelderup68'for Dodi Lukebakio
24Samuel Soares
Celtic Substitutes
49J. Forrest
23H. Hassan45'for Kasper Hogh
26S. Johnstone
65Liam Kennedy
3J. Lotomba77'for Colby Donovan
14L. McCowan
8B. Nygren57'for Oliver Sorensen
21A. Oxlade-Chamberlain57'for Mika Baur
56A. Ralston
5L. Scales
62L. Clearie
19C. Osmand45'for Sebastian Tounekti
Match Stats
BenficaCeltic 53%Ball Possession47%
8Corner Kicks6
3Yellow Cards0
26Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal7
11Shots off Goal5
21Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box2
8Blocked Shots2
9Fouls7
2Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves3
576Total Passes509
526Passes Accurate455
6Free Kicks9
Team Comparison
BenficaCeltic1950Elo Rating 1738
2.83Attack 2.40
2.00Defense 1.31
83%Hit Rate 39%
20.2Shots per Game 13.9
6.3Shots on Target 7.4
6.0Corners per Game 5.7
3.5Cards per Game 2.4
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+212 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
Benfica- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
Celtic- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Recent Form
Benfica9W0D1L
11/10/2026Benfica
Vitória SC
AC MilanBenfica
MoreirenseBenfica
MaritimoBenficaBenfica
Estoril
AarhusBenfica
BenficaVitória SC20
W20/09/2026
FC PortoBenfica
16/09/2026FC PortoBenfica31
LAC MilanBenfica02
W13/09/2026Benfica
GIL Vicente
09/09/2026BenficaGIL Vicente31
WMoreirenseBenfica04
W05/09/2026MaritimoBenfica03
W31/08/2026BenficaEstoril21
W27/08/2026AarhusBenfica13
W20/08/2026BenficaAarhus
BenficaAarhus31
W17/08/2026
Casa PiaBenfica
Casa PiaBenfica07
WCeltic6W0D4L
11/10/2026
MotherwellCelticCeltic
RangersCeltic
Ferencvarosi TC
ST JohnstoneCelticCeltic
Aberdeen
Lask LinzCelticCelticLask Linz
MotherwellCeltic02
W20/09/2026CelticRangers01
L17/09/2026CelticFerencvarosi TC13
L13/09/2026RangersCeltic
09/09/2026RangersCeltic30
LST JohnstoneCeltic01
W05/09/2026
ST MirrenCeltic
02/09/2026ST MirrenCeltic12
WCelticAberdeen30
W29/08/2026Celtic
Falkirk
25/08/2026CelticFalkirk21
WLask LinzCeltic5411
L19/08/2026CelticLask Linz30
WReferee Profile
3.79Cards per match
3.68Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
23.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.79 cards a match, 0.68 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.47).
Cards come from 85 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:8 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 |  Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:9 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 |  Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Europa League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Kairat Almaty
Mjallby AIF
TrabzonsporLillestromArarat-Armenia
Kauno Žalgiris
St. Truiden
FK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhus
Larne
Saburtalo
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Gornik Zabrze
KuPS
Universitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech Poznan
KI Klaksvik
Lincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull Salzburg
FC Thun
Vikingur Reykjavik
Heart Of Midlothian
Tromso
Hradec Králové
PAOK
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hammarby FFAnderlecht
FC ST. GallenBenfica
TwenteBeşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
PafosKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianTromsoHradec KrálovéPAOKMaccabi Tel AvivHammarby FFAnderlechtFC ST. GallenBenficaTwenteBeşiktaşFC MidtjyllandPafosExplore more predictions
This match
More UEFA Europa League matches
About the Benfica vs Celtic forecast
This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Benfica and Celtic in the UEFA Europa League table
The table shows a wide gap: Benfica are 1st in the UEFA Europa League, while Celtic sit 35th, 9 points behind. League goal record so far: Benfica 10-2, Celtic 3-9. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Benfica have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Benfica and Celtic have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.