AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

AC Milan
0-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Benfica
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano·Jarred Gillett, Australia 16/09/2026
AC MilanAC Milan
0-2
Finished
BenficaBenfica

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.6%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+3.9%
AC Milan Rest
4 days
Benfica Rest
3 days

AC Milan vs Benfica: result, form and history

Benfica beat AC Milan 2-0 in the UEFA Europa League on 16 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Benfica had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for AC Milan.

Benfica tend to win more corners, 5.8 a game to 2.8 for AC Milan.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%2.25
X
26%3.58
2
28%3.00
Double Chance
1X
72%1.36
X2
54%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.57
No
37%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 1.39 = 3.00
Over 1.5
79%1.21
Over 2.5
57%1.72
Over 3.5
35%2.70
Under 1.5
21%4.15
Under 2.5
43%2.15
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 5.2 = 9.7
Over 8.5
59%1.57
Over 9.5
46%1.98
Over 10.5
36%2.55
Under 8.5
41%2.20
Under 9.5
54%1.78
Under 10.5
64%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%1.67
Over 4.5
46%2.20
Under 3.5
35%2.13
Under 4.5
54%1.62

Match Events

11'S. PavlovicHolding
16'D. LukebakioAssist: J. Kaminski
26'S. El KarouaniHolding
37'J. DuranElbowing
46'O. Hutchinson INC. Pulisic out
46'F. Terracciano INM. Gila out
53'J. KaminskiAssist: S. El Karouani
57'D. Bartesaghi INA. Saelemaekers out
57'A. Cisse IND. Moreira out
70'F. Aursnes INL. Barreiro out
70'G. Sudakov ING. Prestianni out
73'A. Jashari INA. Rabiot out
77'D. BanjaquiTripping
80'J. Kaminski INA. Schjelderup out
80'J. Duran INV. Pavlidis out
84'L. BarreiroHolding
88'S. El Karouani INS. Dahl out
90+2'V. PavlidisHolding

Lineups

AC Milan
3-4-2-1Coach: Ruben Amorim
Benfica
4-2-3-1Coach: Marco Silva
Avg rating6.60
Avg rating7.17
Mike MaignanC6.316M. Maignan
Filippo Terracciano6.542F. Terracciano
Koni De Winter6.75K. De Winter
Strahinja Pavlović6.331S. Pavlović
Samuel Chukwueze7.321S. Chukwueze
Ardon Jashari6.230A. Jashari
Yunus Musah6.980Y. Musah
Davide Bartesaghi6.933D. Bartesaghi
Omari Hutchinson6.520O. Hutchinson
Alphadjo Cissè6.970A. Cissè
Gonçalo Ramos5.99G. Ramos
Anatoliy Trubin8.51A. Trubin
Daniel Banjaqui7.558D. Banjaqui
Alessandro Circati7.33A. Circati
Tomás Araújo8.244T. Araújo
Souffian El Karouani7.334S. El Karouani
Fredrik AursnesC6.68F. Aursnes
João Palhinha7.536J. Palhinha
Dodi Lukebakio8.211D. Lukebakio
Georgiy Sudakov6.710G. Sudakov
Jakub Kamiński7.913J. Kamiński
Jhon Durán6.222J. Durán

AC Milan Substitutes

34Mario Gila46'for F. Terracciano7.3
11Christian Pulišić46'for O. Hutchinson6.0
22Diego Moreira57'for A. Cisse6.3
56Alexis Saelemaekers57'for D. Bartesaghi7.3
96Lorenzo Torriani
23Fikayo Tomori
46Matteo Gabbia
2Pervis Estupiñán
8Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12Adrien Rabiot73'for A. Jashari6.3
14Luka Modrić
73Francesco Camarda

Benfica Substitutes

18Leandro Barreiro70'for F. Aursnes84'6.2
25Gianluca Prestianni70'for G. Sudakov6.6
24Samuel Soares
2Clément Lenglet
26Samuel Dahl88'for S. El Karouani
5Enzo Barrenechea
16Manu Silva
21Andreas Schjelderup80'for J. Kaminski6.3
27Rafa Silva
30Claudio Echeverri
14Vangelis Pavlidis80'for J. Duran90+2'6.5
72Anísio Cabral

Match Stats

AC MilanBenfica
60%Ball Possession40%
10Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards5
17Total Shots11
4Shots on Goal4
10Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box5
8Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots4
14Fouls12
0Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
567Total Passes382
521Passes Accurate324
92%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

AC MilanAC Milan
BenficaBenfica
1840Elo Rating 1888
1.41Attack 2.71
1.03Defense 2.23
39%Hit Rate 100%
10.8Shots per Game 19.0
3.2Shots on Target 7.2
2.8Corners per Game 5.8
1.9Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AC MilanAC Milan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BenficaBenfica
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0.8 in first half)

Recent Form

AC MilanAC Milan
4W4D2L
12/09/2026
LazioAC Milan
22
D
06/09/2026
JuventusAC Milan
11
D
28/08/2026
AC MilanVenezia
20
W
23/08/2026
TorinoAC Milan
12
W
15/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAC Milan
24
W
08/08/2026
ChelseaAC Milan
30
L
05/08/2026
AC MilanInter
11
D
25/07/2026
CelticAC Milan
22
D
17/05/2026
GenoaAC Milan
12
W
10/05/2026
AC MilanAtalanta
23
L
BenficaBenfica
8W2D0L

Referee Profile

Jarred Gillett179 matches

3.73Cards per match
3.63Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
20.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jarred Gillett3.73
Other referees3.79

3.73 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.79).

Cards come from 171 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BenficaBenfica440013:3+1012WWWW
2BournemouthBournemouth440011:2+912WWWW
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC440011:3+812WWWW
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise431010:2+810WWDW
5JuventusJuventus431011:4+710WDWW
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus43104:1+310DWWW
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen43018:1+79LWWW
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş421111:8+37LDWW
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb42115:4+17WLWD
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia42114:3+17WWDL
11SunderlandSunderland42114:407LDWW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen42118:9-17WWDL
13LyonLyon42116:7-17DLWW
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar42027:4+36LWWL
15AnderlechtAnderlecht42026:3+36WWLL
16OFIOFI42025:4+16WLLW
17RennesRennes41304:3+16DDWD
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia42026:7-16LLWW
19TorreenseTorreense42027:9-26WLLW
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad41219:4+55DWDL
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace41219:6+35DDLW
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha41126:604LLDW
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim41126:604DWLL
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz41123:6-34LWLD
25CeljeCelje41125:9-44WDLL
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg41123:8-54LDLW
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo41034:6-23LWLL
28AC MilanAC Milan41034:7-33LLWL
29JagielloniaJagiellonia41034:7-33LLWL
30PlzenPlzen41033:7-43WLLL
31MarseilleMarseille41032:6-43WLLL
32CelticCeltic41036:11-53WLLL
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva40131:8-71LLLD
34LillestromLillestrom40132:10-81LLDL
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan40132:12-101LDLL
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia40044:14-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BenficaBenfica413:312
2BournemouthBournemouth411:212
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC411:312
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise410:210
5JuventusJuventus411:410
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus44:110
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen48:19
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş411:87
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb45:47
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia44:37
11SunderlandSunderland44:47
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen48:97
13LyonLyon46:77
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar47:46
15AnderlechtAnderlecht46:36
16OFIOFI45:46
17RennesRennes44:36
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia46:76
19TorreenseTorreense47:96
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad49:45
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace49:65
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha46:64
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim46:64
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz43:64
25CeljeCelje45:94
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg43:84
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo44:63
28AC MilanAC Milan44:73
29JagielloniaJagiellonia44:73
30PlzenPlzen43:73
31MarseilleMarseille42:63
32CelticCeltic46:113
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva41:81
34LillestromLillestrom42:101
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan42:121
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia44:140
Europa League

About the AC Milan vs Benfica forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AC Milan and Benfica in the UEFA Europa League table

In the UEFA Europa League table, Benfica are 1st and AC Milan 28th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: AC Milan 4-7, Benfica 13-3. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

AC Milan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. AC Milan and Benfica have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.