Boston River vs Progreso Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 7
Boston River
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Progreso
Estadio Campeones Olimpicos, Florida·Mathias De Armas, Uruguay 19/09/2026
Boston RiverBoston River
1-2
Finished
ProgresoProgreso

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseHighGap-5.6%
Boston River Rest
6 days
Progreso Rest
2 days

Boston River vs Progreso: the result in context

Progreso beat Boston River 2-1 in the Primera División on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Progreso have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.0 goals a game. Referee Mathias De Armas averages 4.89 cards a game, 1.08 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.90
X
30%3.23
2
21%3.84
Double Chance
1X
79%1.22
X2
51%1.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.85
No
52%1.84
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.48 + 0.89 = 2.37
Over 1.5
68%1.33
Over 2.5
43%2.07
Over 3.5
25%3.75
Under 1.5
32%3.00
Under 2.5
57%1.69
Under 3.5
75%1.25
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

9'F. MartinezOG
26'L. Viana INM. Juambeltz out
46'F. Aristegui INF. Valdez out
46'L. Vazquez INF. Avenatti out
46'F. Saravia INA. Amado out
48'I. Fernandez
56'M. Juambeltz
58'A. Cougo
62'F. De Leon INE. Alvarez out
70'I. Fernandez ING. Ramirez out
71'N. Siri
75'J. Acosta INL. Suarez out
75'R. Cristobal INL. Couture out
75'G. Trasante INN. Acosta out
75'A. Ocampo INJ. Dos Santos out
90'N. Lopez
90+2'M. Saravia

Lineups

Boston River
4-2-3-1Coach: Ignacio Ithurralde Saez
Progreso
4-2-3-1Coach: Tabare Silva
Bruno Antúnez1B. Antúnez
Juan Acosta31J. Acosta
Martín González30M. González
Ignacio Fernandez4I. Fernandez
Fredy Martínez22F. Martínez
Lautaro Vazquez15L. Vazquez
Marco Oroná17M. Oroná
Leandro Suhr16L. Suhr
Rodrigo Saravia6R. Saravia
Facundo Agustin Aristegui Lemos13F. Agustin Aristegui Lemos
Nicolás Siri27N. Siri
Renzo Bacchia1R. Bacchia
Gianfranco Trasante16G. Trasante
Mauro Martín15M. Martín
Marco Saravia6M. Saravia
Ayrton Cougo40A. Cougo
Agustin Pinheiro5A. Pinheiro
Ramiro Cristobal25R. Cristobal
Facundo de León17F. de León
Nahuel López10N. López
Agustín Ocampo7A. Ocampo
Lucas Viana Gauna14L. Viana Gauna

Boston River Substitutes

10Agustín Amado46'replaced by F. Saravia
43Facundo Valdéz46'for F. Aristegui
20Felipe Avenatti46'for L. Vazquez
11Gastón Ramírez70'for I. Fernandez
12Juan Ignacio González
24Jairo O'Neil
25Agustín Aguirre
3Marco Mancebo
8Leonardo Suárez75'for J. Acosta
9Francisco Bonfiglio

Progreso Substitutes

8Maximiliano Juambeltz26'for L. Viana56'
24Emiliano Álvarez62'for F. De Leon
12Lautaro Fernández
3Federico García
13Hernan Carroso
22Juan Pablo Oliva
4Lorenzo Couture75'for R. Cristobal
30Agustín Codagnone
11Nahuel Acosta75'for G. Trasante
9Jonathan Dos Santos75'for A. Ocampo

Team Comparison

Boston RiverBoston River
ProgresoProgreso
1493Elo Rating 1482
0.73Attack 1.54
2.30Defense 2.17
39%Hit Rate 64%
8.4Shots per Game 7.8
4.3Shots on Target 3.9
1.9Corners per Game 3.5
3.6Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Boston RiverBoston River
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ProgresoProgreso
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Boston RiverBoston River1Wins · 17%
Draws117%
ProgresoProgreso4Wins · 66%
2.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura22/03/2026
ProgresoBoston River
01
Copa De La Liga Auf30/01/2026
Boston RiverProgreso
12
Primera División - Apertura19/06/2025
ProgresoBoston River
20
Primera División - Apertura09/03/2025
ProgresoBoston River
22
Primera División - Apertura13/04/2024
ProgresoBoston River
10
Primera División - Apertura16/07/2021
ProgresoBoston River
10

Recent Form

Boston RiverBoston River
4W2D4L
12/09/2026
Racing MontevideoBoston River
32
L
09/09/2026
Boston RiverColón
20
W
07/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoBoston River
10
L
02/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoBoston River
01
W
29/08/2026
Boston RiverCerro
11
D
21/08/2026
Albion FCBoston River
23
W
15/08/2026
Boston RiverDanubio
00
D
09/08/2026
Club NacionalBoston River
12
W
02/08/2026
Racing MontevideoBoston River
10
L
18/07/2026
PenarolBoston River
30
L
ProgresoProgreso
2W0D8L
16/09/2026
ProgresoClub Nacional
01
L
13/09/2026
ProgresoCerro
13
L
07/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
01
W
03/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
21
L
29/08/2026
ProgresoDanubio
10
W
26/08/2026
ProgresoCA River Plate
02
L
23/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
10
L
16/08/2026
ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado
02
L08/08/2026
Central EspanolProgreso
10
L
02/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
21
L

Referee Profile

Mathias De Armas120 matches

4.89Cards per match
4.67Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathias De Armas4.89
Other referees5.97

4.89 cards a match, 1.08 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.97).

Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol35199752:28+2465LDLWL
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque351961059:41+1863WDLDL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional351941253:42+1161LWLLW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo351612745:31+1460WDWWW
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo351611847:31+1659DLWLD
7WanderersWanderers351491242:44-251WLLLW
8Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
9JuventudJuventud3510111437:43-641DDWLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting359121435:43-839WDWLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo359101633:41-837LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River351071834:47-1337LWLWW
14CerroCerro351071829:53-2437LDDWL
15ProgresoProgreso351052031:49-1835LWLLD
16DanubioDanubio356141529:45-1632WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3552:2865
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3559:4163
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3553:4261
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3545:3160
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3547:3159
7WanderersWanderers3542:4451
8Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
9JuventudJuventud3537:4341
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3535:4339
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo3533:4137
13Boston RiverBoston River3534:4737
14CerroCerro3529:5337
15ProgresoProgreso3531:4935
16DanubioDanubio3529:4532

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol72431514118:62+56144LDLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72431415129:75+54140LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7234221698:68+30124DLWLD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7230231984:69+15113WDWWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72321624113:92+21112WDLDL
7JuventudJuventud7228182682:820102DDWLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7227192677:81-4100WDWLD
9Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
10Boston RiverBoston River7224202884:86-292LWLWW
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7221232874:82-886LLDDW
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
13CerroCerro7222183262:95-3383LDDWL
14WanderersWanderers7220223067:91-2482WLLLW
15DanubioDanubio7216272970:86-1675WDDDL
16ProgresoProgreso7220143869:109-4074LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol72118:62144
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72129:75140
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7298:68124
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7284:69113
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72113:92112
7JuventudJuventud7282:82102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7277:81100
9Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
10Boston RiverBoston River7284:8692
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7274:8286
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
13CerroCerro7262:9583
14WanderersWanderers7267:9182
15DanubioDanubio7270:8675
16ProgresoProgreso7269:10974

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916LDLWL
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LLDDW
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110WDWWW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509DLWLD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409WLDWW
6CerroCerro73046:10-49LDDWL
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36WDWLD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55LWLWW
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1WanderersWanderers743012:4+815WLLLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional74128:8013LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado733112:6+612LDWWL
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque740311:11012WDLDL
5JuventudJuventud72238:11-38DDWLL
6Albion FCAlbion FC71336:8-26WWWDD
7ProgresoProgreso72056:11-56LWLLD
8DanubioDanubio70435:9-44WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1WanderersWanderers712:415
2Club NacionalClub Nacional78:813
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado712:612
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque711:1112
5JuventudJuventud78:118
6Albion FCAlbion FC76:86
7ProgresoProgreso76:116
8DanubioDanubio75:94

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931WDWWW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829LDWWL
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWWDD
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727LDLWL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124WLDWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623WDLDL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522LWLLW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221WDWLD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220DLWLD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520WLLLW
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418WDDDL
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617LWLWW
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DDWLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110LWLLD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1393122:8+1430DLWLD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1391326:14+1228WDLDL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1382319:13+626LWLLW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1364318:10+822LDWWL
5PenarolPenarol1365217:9+822LDLWL
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1354418:14+419WDWWW
7ProgresoProgreso1361613:15-219LWLLD
8JuventudJuventud1346312:10+218DDWLL
9CerroCerro1353515:19-418LDDWL
10WanderersWanderers1344514:19-516WLLLW
11Boston RiverBoston River1343615:17-215LWLWW
12Albion FCAlbion FC1341815:20-513WWWDD
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1333716:23-712WDWLD
14DanubioDanubio132477:15-810WDDDL
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1316610:17-79LLDDW
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol132298:22-148WLDWW
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1322:830
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1326:1428
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1319:1326
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1318:1022
5PenarolPenarol1317:922
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1318:1419
7ProgresoProgreso1313:1519
8JuventudJuventud1312:1018
9CerroCerro1315:1918
10WanderersWanderers1314:1916
11Boston RiverBoston River1315:1715
12Albion FCAlbion FC1315:2013
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1316:2312
14DanubioDanubio137:1510
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1310:179
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol138:228
PromotionRelegation

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About the Boston River vs Progreso forecast

The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Boston River and Progreso in the Primera División table

Boston River and Progreso are close in the Primera División table, 13th and 15th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Boston River 34-47, Progreso 31-49. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.