Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 7
Club Nacional
3-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Defensor Sporting
Gran Parque Central, Montevideo·Esteban Ostojich, Uruguay 20/09/2026
Club NacionalClub Nacional
3-2
Finished
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.15
SignalHIGHModel59%SurpriseMediumGap-10.1%
Club Nacional Rest
4 days
Defensor Sporting Rest
7 days

Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting: result, form and history

Club Nacional beat Defensor Sporting 3-2 in the Primera División on 20 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Club Nacional had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Defensor Sporting.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and both sides scored in 5 of them. Referee Esteban Ostojich averages 6.62 cards a game, 1.44 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
55%1.62
X
25%3.60
2
20%4.80
Double Chance
1X
80%1.15
X2
45%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.93
No
51%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.63 + 0.93 = 2.56
Over 1.5
71%1.30
Over 2.5
47%1.98
Over 3.5
27%3.35
Under 1.5
29%3.20
Under 2.5
53%1.78
Under 3.5
73%1.28
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

27'G. Barrios
33'A. Frugone
35'F. Calvo
37'R. Botta
57'M. Silvera INM. Gomez out
57'C. Candido INR. Martinez out
57'R. Botta INA. Martinez out
61'A. Frugone INN. Medina out
61'A. Torterolo INE. Cuello out
63'G. De los Santos
68'G. Barrios INM. Rabunal out
72'N. Medina
74'L. Boggio INL. Gonzalez out
79'G. Rodriguez INM. Caballero out
79'L. Agazzi INN. Scotti out
84'L. Rodriguez
89'M. Gomez(Penalty)
90+2'M. Gomez
90+4'F. Calvo
90+6'A. Frugone
90+6'T. Correa INS. Silva out
90+7'M. Gomez

Lineups

Club Nacional
3-4-2-1Coach: Jorge Bava
Defensor Sporting
4-2-3-1Coach: Mauricio Larriera
Luis Mejía1L. Mejía
Luciano Rodríguez37L. Rodríguez
Francisco Calvo5F. Calvo
Tomás Viera32T. Viera
Gastón Martirena15G. Martirena
Lucas Rodríguez23L. Rodríguez
Luciano Boggio6L. Boggio
Camilo Cándido21C. Cándido
Rubén Botta20R. Botta
Tiziano Correa29T. Correa
Maximiliano Silvera11M. Silvera
Kevin Dawson12K. Dawson
Geanfranco Rodríguez4G. Rodríguez
Guillermo De los Santos3G. De los Santos
Edgar Elizalde2E. Elizalde
Axel Frugone15A. Frugone
Lucas De los Santos24L. De los Santos
Germán Barrios5G. Barrios
Lucas Agazzi11L. Agazzi
Nicolás Wunsch8N. Wunsch
Alan Torterolo22A. Torterolo
Brian Montenegro26B. Montenegro

Club Nacional Substitutes

22Alexis Martín Arias
7Nicolás Rodríguez
10Agustín Dos Santos
56Juan García
39Luciano González74'for L. Boggio
14Alejandro Martínez57'for R. Botta
31Rodrigo Martínez57'for C. Candido
8Santiago Silva90+6'for T. Correa
36Bruno Zuculini
9Maximiliano Gómez57'for M. Silvera89'90+2'90+7'

Defensor Sporting Substitutes

1Lucas Machado
25Diego Abella
20Mateo Caballero79'replaced by G. Rodriguez
10Xavier Biscayzacu
30Erico Cuello Gutiérrez61'for A. Torterolo
7Nicolás Medina61'for A. Frugone72'
29Tomás Pozzo
55Martín Rabuñal68'for G. Barrios
19Juan Díaz
21Nicolás Scotti79'for L. Agazzi

Team Comparison

Club NacionalClub Nacional
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
1666Elo Rating 1454
2.30Attack 1.53
2.46Defense 0.74
100%Hit Rate 0%
9.4Shots per Game 6.9
4.1Shots on Target 3.9
6.6Corners per Game 4.3
3.4Cards per Game 3.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+213 Elo
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Club NacionalClub Nacional
  • Leads at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Club NacionalClub Nacional3Wins · 43%
Draws343%
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1Wins · 14%
3.3Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
71%3+ goals5 of 7

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura21/03/2026
Defensor SportingClub Nacional
21
Primera División - Apertura18/05/2025
Club NacionalDefensor Sporting
21
Copa Uruguay07/12/2024
Club NacionalDefensor Sporting
0212
Primera División - Apertura10/03/2024
Defensor SportingClub Nacional
33
Primera División - Apertura07/05/2023
Defensor SportingClub Nacional
22
Primera División - Apertura14/06/2022
Defensor SportingClub Nacional
01
Primera División - Apertura14/05/2022
Defensor SportingClub Nacional
02

Recent Form

Club NacionalClub Nacional
5W3D2L
16/09/2026
ProgresoClub Nacional
01
W
12/09/2026
WanderersClub Nacional
11
D
06/09/2026
Club NacionalJuventud
22
D
03/09/2026
CA River PlateClub Nacional
23
W
30/08/2026
PenarolClub Nacional
01
W
27/08/2026
Club NacionalAlbion FC
00
D
23/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
10
W
15/08/2026
Racing MontevideoClub Nacional
20
L
09/08/2026
Club NacionalBoston River
12
L
02/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
21
W
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
2W4D4L
13/09/2026
Defensor SportingDeportivo Maldonado
10
W10/09/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D
06/09/2026
Central EspanolDefensor Sporting
11
D
29/08/2026
Defensor SportingAtletico Torque
13
L
25/08/2026
Defensor SportingRentistas
00
D
22/08/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D
16/08/2026
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo
04
L
09/08/2026
Defensor SportingWanderers
01
L04/08/2026
Defensor SportingCerro
21
W25/07/2026
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo
12
L

Referee Profile

Esteban Ostojich179 matches

6.62Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Esteban Ostojich6.62
Other referees5.18

6.62 cards a match, 1.44 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 110 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol34198751:27+2464DLWLW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional341841251:41+1058WLLWW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo341512742:30+1257DWWWD
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo341511845:31+1456LWLDD
7WanderersWanderers341481241:43-250LLLWL
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo349101532:38-637LDDWL
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro341071728:51-2337DDWLW
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3451:2764
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3451:4158
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3442:3057
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3445:3156
7WanderersWanderers3441:4350
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3432:3837
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3428:5137
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol71431414117:61+56143DLWLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71421415127:74+53137WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7133221696:68+28121LWLDD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7129231981:68+13110DWWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7121232773:79-686LDDWL
12CerroCerro7122183161:93-3283DDWLW
13WanderersWanderers7120213066:90-2481LLLWL
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol71117:61143
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71127:74137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7196:68121
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7181:68110
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7173:7986
12CerroCerro7161:9383
13WanderersWanderers7166:9081
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916DLWLW
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LDDWL
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110DWWWD
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509LWLDD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409LDWWD
6CerroCerro73046:10-49DDWLW
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36DWLDD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55WLWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1WanderersWanderers743012:4+815LLLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional74128:8013WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado733112:6+612DWWLW
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque740311:11012DLDLL
5JuventudJuventud72238:11-38DWLLL
6Albion FCAlbion FC71336:8-26WWDDW
7ProgresoProgreso72056:11-56WLLDD
8DanubioDanubio70435:9-44DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1WanderersWanderers712:415
2Club NacionalClub Nacional78:813
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado712:612
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque711:1112
5JuventudJuventud78:118
6Albion FCAlbion FC76:86
7ProgresoProgreso76:116
8DanubioDanubio75:94

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931DWWWD
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727DLWLW
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124LDWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522WLLWW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220LWLDD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520LLLWL
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LDDWL
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610DDWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1283120:8+1227LWLDD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1272317:12+523WLLWW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
5PenarolPenarol1264216:8+821DLWLW
6ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
7JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
8CerroCerro1253414:17-318DDWLW
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1244415:13+216DWWWD
10Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
11WanderersWanderers1243513:18-515LLLWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo121659:14-59LDDWL
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol121296:21-155LDWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1220:827
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1217:1223
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
5PenarolPenarol1216:821
6ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
7JuventudJuventud1212:818
8CerroCerro1214:1718
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1215:1316
10Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
11WanderersWanderers1213:1815
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo129:149
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol126:215
PromotionRelegation

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About the Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Club Nacional and Defensor Sporting in the Primera División table

The table shows a wide gap: Club Nacional are 4th in the Primera División, while Defensor Sporting sit 14th, 22 points behind. League goal record so far: Club Nacional 51-41, Defensor Sporting 33-43. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Club Nacional have led at half-time in 100% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.