Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Prediction

Charlotte
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Chicago Fire
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte·Christopher Penso 27/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.42
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+2.5%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.86
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Charlotte Rest
7 days
Chicago Fire Rest
6 days

Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: result, form and history

Chicago Fire beat Charlotte 1-0 in the Major League Soccer on 27 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Charlotte had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Chicago Fire.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 9 previous meetings averaged 4.0 goals, and both sides scored in 7 of them. Referee Christopher Penso averages 4.90 cards a game, 0.55 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%2.17
X
25%3.83
2
33%2.87
Double Chance
1X
67%1.36
X2
58%1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%1.40
No
32%2.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.53 + 1.56 = 3.09
Over 1.5
85%1.10
Over 2.5
66%1.42
Over 3.5
46%2.01
Under 1.5
15%6.49
Under 2.5
34%2.88
Under 3.5
54%1.75
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.3 = 9.5
Over 8.5
61%1.50
Over 9.5
47%1.80
Over 10.5
37%2.28
Under 8.5
39%2.50
Under 9.5
53%1.93
Under 10.5
63%1.55
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
56%1.43
Over 4.5
36%1.87
Under 3.5
44%2.69
Under 4.5
64%1.83

Match Events

23'Sergio OregelFoul
34'Djibril DianiFoul
38'Allan Saint-MaximinDissent
49'Archie Goodwin INTyger Smalls out
58'Luca De La TorreOG
61'Goal cancelledTyger Smalls
70'Djibril Diani INDavid Schnegg out
70'Luca De La Torre INBrandt Bronico out
74'Pep BielDissent
75'Leonardo Barroso INAndrew Gutman out
75'Sergio Oregel INMauricio Pineda out
80'Jonathan Bamba INDavid Poreba out
80'Mbekezeli Mbokazi INSam Rogers out
81'David PorebaFoul
81'Will Cleary INNathan Byrne out
81'Harry Toffolo INNathan Richmond out
82'Ashley WestwoodDissent
90+8'Tim ReamFoul
90+8'Tim Ream

Lineups

Charlotte
4-3-3Coach: D. Smith
Chicago Fire
4-4-2Coach: G. Berhalter
Avg rating6.46
Avg rating6.83
K. Kahlina8.81K. Kahlina
Will Cleary6.235W. Cleary
H. Kessler6.822H. Kessler
T. Ream5.93T. Ream
H. Toffolo6.715H. Toffolo
L. de la Torre5.817L. de la Torre
A. Westwood6.08A. Westwood
D. Diani6.328D. Diani
Pep Biel5.616P. Biel
A. Goodwin6.67A. Goodwin
A. Saint-Maximin7.210A. Saint-Maximin
J. Cohen6.844J. Cohen
J. Dean7.024J. Dean
J. Elliott7.43J. Elliott
M. Mbokazi7.34M. Mbokazi
Leonardo Barroso7.02L. Barroso
P. Zinckernagel7.211P. Zinckernagel
T. D'Avilla6.942T. D'Avilla
S. Oregel6.735S. Oregel
J. Bamba6.219J. Bamba
M. Haile-Selassie7.17M. Haile-Selassie
J. Gómez6.418J. Gómez

Charlotte Substitutes

13B. Bronico70'for Luca De La Torre6.3
14N. Byrne81'for Will Cleary6.4
23D. Schnegg70'for Djibril Diani6.2
44M. Agyemang
21T. Miller
25Tyger Smalls49'for Archie Goodwin6.5
4A. Privett
20B. Coulibaly
71N. Richmond81'for Harry Toffolo6.2

Chicago Fire Substitutes

22M. Pineda75'for Sergio Oregel6.9
29D. Poręba80'for Jonathan Bamba81'6.5
5S. Rogers80'for Mbekezeli Mbokazi6.6
15A. Gutman75'for Leonardo Barroso6.5
25J. Gal
58W. Brody
65O. Pineda
28D. Boltz

Match Stats

CharlotteChicago Fire
41%Ball Possession59%
4Corner Kicks6
5Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
11Total Shots18
2Shots on Goal8
8Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box10
1Blocked Shots6
14Fouls15
3Offsides0
8Goalkeeper Saves2
347Total Passes526
287Passes Accurate464
13Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

CharlotteCharlotte
Chicago FireChicago Fire
1658Elo Rating 1643
1.63Attack 1.26
1.08Defense 1.68
34%Hit Rate 50%
12.3Shots per Game 15.9
4.1Shots on Target 5.6
5.0Corners per Game 5.1
2.3Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.09 goals
📈BTTS Trend78% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CharlotteCharlotte
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Chicago FireChicago Fire
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

CharlotteCharlotte5Wins · 56%
Draws00%
Chicago FireChicago Fire4Wins · 44%
4.0Avg Goals
78%Both teams scored7 of 9
78%3+ goals7 of 9

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer02/08/2026
Chicago FireCharlotte
21
Major League Soccer29/06/2025
Chicago FireCharlotte
32
Major League Soccer18/05/2025
CharlotteChicago Fire
14
Major League Soccer03/10/2024
CharlotteChicago Fire
43
Major League Soccer16/05/2024
Chicago FireCharlotte
01
Major League Soccer08/10/2023
Chicago FireCharlotte
02
Major League Soccer18/05/2023
CharlotteChicago Fire
21
Major League Soccer18/09/2022
Chicago FireCharlotte
23
Major League Soccer07/08/2022
CharlotteChicago Fire
23

Referee Profile

Christopher Penso112 matches

4.90Cards per match
4.70Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
22.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Christopher Penso4.90
Other referees4.35

4.90 cards a match, 0.55 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.35).

Cards come from 111 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC30207364:23+4167DWWWW
2Inter MiamiInter Miami301510573:51+2255WWWLD
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution301641049:41+852WWLLW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire301461052:44+848LLWWW
5CharlotteCharlotte30138953:45+847DLWLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union301371061:48+1346DWWWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC301251358:70-1241WDWLL
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati301091162:71-939WLLWL
9New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls301061439:56-1736LLWLW
10Toronto FCToronto FC308121046:55-936WDWLL
11Columbus CrewColumbus Crew301051546:47-135WWLWW
12New York City FCNew York City FC308101243:41+234DLLDL
13DC UnitedDC United307121138:53-1533LLWLD
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC30861637:51-1430LWLDW
15CF MontrealCF Montreal30671736:60-2425DLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3064:2367
2Inter MiamiInter Miami3073:5155
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3049:4152
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3052:4448
5CharlotteCharlotte3053:4547
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3061:4846
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3058:7041
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3062:7139
9New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3039:5636
10Toronto FCToronto FC3046:5536
11Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3046:4735
12New York City FCNew York City FC3043:4134
13DC UnitedDC United3038:5333
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3037:5130
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3036:6025
Promotion

About the Charlotte vs Chicago Fire forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Charlotte and Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer table

Chicago Fire and Charlotte are close in the Major League Soccer table, 4th and 5th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Charlotte 53-45, Chicago Fire 52-44. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.