Chesterfield vs Colchester Prediction

Chesterfield
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Colchester
Proact Stadium, Chesterfield 20/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-4.0%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+4.8%
Chesterfield Rest
3 days
Colchester Rest
3 days

Chesterfield vs Colchester: the result in context

Chesterfield and Colchester drew 1-1 in the League Two on 20 Oct 2026. Chesterfield had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for Colchester.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.5 a game across 4 meetings, with both teams scoring in 2. Chesterfield tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 3.2 for Colchester.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.56
X
24%4.15
2
20%5.00
Double Chance
1X
80%1.15
X2
44%2.27
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.65
No
44%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.66 + 1.06 = 2.72
Over 1.5
79%1.18
Over 2.5
56%1.64
Over 3.5
36%2.50
Under 1.5
21%4.50
Under 2.5
44%2.20
Under 3.5
64%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 3.2 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.39
Over 9.5
46%1.71
Over 10.5
35%2.15
Under 8.5
42%2.63
Under 9.5
54%2.01
Under 10.5
65%1.62
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.5 = 4.4
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
44%-
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
56%-

Match Events

29'Dilan MarkandayAssist: Ryan Stirk
34'Lewis GordonFoul
36'Bradley ihionveinFoul
41'Danny CowleyDissent
54'Alfie PondFoul
58'Robert Donald HuntFoul
68'Dilan Markanday INDylan Duffy out
68'Louie Marsh INTom Naylor out
69'Josh Koroma INLiam Mandeville out
69'George McEachran INKiano Dyer out
75'Jaden Williams INOscar thorn out
75'Kane Vincent-Young INSamuel Kuffour Jr. out
76'Robert Donald Hunt INBen perry out
79'Ryan StirkFoul
80'Paul Digby INKien Connelly out
82'Ben perryAssist: Oscar thorn
84'Lee Bonis INF. Bryden out
88'Bradley ihionvein INLeon Chiwome out

Lineups

Chesterfield
4-2-3-1Coach: P. Cook
Colchester
4-2-3-1Coach: D. Cowley
Avg rating6.56
Avg rating6.55
R. Boot6.123R. Boot
R. Hutton6.733R. Hutton
A. Pond6.615A. Pond
J. Simpson6.46J. Simpson
L. Gordon6.219L. Gordon
G. McEachran6.620G. McEachran
R. Stirk7.78R. Stirk
D. Markanday8.224D. Markanday
L. Marsh6.718L. Marsh
J. Koroma6.437J. Koroma
L. Bonis5.910L. Bonis
T. Lo-Tutala6.822T. Lo-Tutala
K. Vincent-Young6.230K. Vincent-Young
J. Tucker6.55J. Tucker
F. Terry6.824F. Terry
E. Iandolo6.53E. Iandolo
J. Williams6.626J. Williams
R. Hunt6.02R. Hunt
M. Sesay6.912M. Sesay
P. Digby6.16P. Digby
Jaden Williams5.917J. Williams
B. Ihionvien6.29B. Ihionvien

Chesterfield Substitutes

7L. Mandeville69'for Josh Koroma6.1
26J. Eccleston
27K. Dyer69'for George McEachran6.3
11D. Duffy68'for Dilan Markanday6.3
9F. Bryden84'for Lee Bonis6.5
4T. Naylor68'for Louie Marsh6.3
46T. Pearce

Colchester Substitutes

11L. Chiwome88'for Bradley ihionvein6.4
39K. Connelly80'for Paul Digby6.7
47R. Harvey
44S. Kuffour75'for Kane Vincent-Young6.3
4Ben Perry76'for Robert Donald Hunt82'8.0
20S. Raggett
27O. Thorn75'for Jaden Williams7.1

Match Stats

ChesterfieldColchester
62%Ball Possession38%
7Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards2
20Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal1
7Shots off Goal4
14Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box1
9Blocked Shots1
9Fouls15
3Offsides3
0Goalkeeper Saves1
586Total Passes356
504Passes Accurate278
15Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

ChesterfieldChesterfield
ColchesterColchester
1593Elo Rating 1480
2.47Attack 0.37
1.69Defense 1.93
41%Hit Rate 0%
16.9Shots per Game 9.4
5.1Shots on Target 2.5
6.9Corners per Game 3.2
2.2Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+113 Elo
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

ChesterfieldChesterfield
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.9 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ColchesterColchester
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

ChesterfieldChesterfield1Wins · 25%
Draws125%
ColchesterColchester2Wins · 50%
3.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

League Two03/03/2026
ChesterfieldColchester
30
League Two04/10/2025
ColchesterChesterfield
62
League Two04/03/2025
ColchesterChesterfield
10
League Two22/10/2024
ChesterfieldColchester
11

Recent Form

ChesterfieldChesterfield
5W3D2L
17/10/2026
Port ValeChesterfield
10
L
10/10/2026
Crawley TownChesterfield
22
D
03/10/2026
ChesterfieldTranmere
42
W
26/09/2026
CheltenhamChesterfield
21
L
22/09/2026
ChesterfieldPort Vale
4131
W
19/09/2026
ChesterfieldYork
20
W
15/09/2026
ChesterfieldManchester City U21
53
W
12/09/2026
OldhamChesterfield
12
W
05/09/2026
ChesterfieldBarnet
33
D
01/09/2026
ChesterfieldGillingham
11
D
ColchesterColchester
1W4D5L
17/10/2026
ColchesterExeter City
00
D
10/10/2026
Newport CountyColchester
10
L
03/10/2026
ColchesterLuton
3141
L
26/09/2026
ShrewsburyColchester
22
D
22/09/2026
PeterboroughColchester
31
L
19/09/2026
ColchesterCheltenham
11
D
12/09/2026
ColchesterCrewe
11
D
05/09/2026
Swindon TownColchester
31
L
01/09/2026
Bristol RoversColchester
20
L
29/08/2026
ColchesterRochdale
10
W

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City1391323:14+928WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1274127:17+1025WDLWW
3CheltenhamCheltenham1363422:22021WWLLL
4CreweCrewe1356216:16021LLWWW
5YorkYork1355322:16+620LWDDD
6WalsallWalsall1247118:11+719LWDDD
7ChesterfieldChesterfield1354423:17+619WDLDW
8Exeter CityExeter City1354410:7+319WWDWW
9Accrington STAccrington ST1346322:16+618WDWDW
10ShrewsburyShrewsbury1353516:20-418DWWLW
11GrimsbyGrimsby1345419:16+317WDLLL
12GillinghamGillingham1345418:18017LDLWD
13TranmereTranmere1337316:16016DWLDL
14Swindon TownSwindon Town1344513:16-316DWDLL
15Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1351716:20-416DLLLL
16Newport CountyNewport County1336416:16015LDDWD
17RochdaleRochdale1343615:22-715LDLDW
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1335515:17-214LLWDL
19NorthamptonNorthampton113448:8013WLWDL
20OldhamOldham1233614:18-412DLWDL
21ColchesterColchester1226411:16-512LDDLD
22RotherhamRotherham1326517:23-612DDLLL
23Port ValePort Vale113356:12-612LDWWL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1113712:21-96DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1323:1428
2BarnetBarnet1227:1725
3CheltenhamCheltenham1322:2221
4CreweCrewe1316:1621
5YorkYork1322:1620
6WalsallWalsall1218:1119
7ChesterfieldChesterfield1323:1719
8Exeter CityExeter City1310:719
9Accrington STAccrington ST1322:1618
10ShrewsburyShrewsbury1316:2018
11GrimsbyGrimsby1319:1617
12GillinghamGillingham1318:1817
13TranmereTranmere1316:1616
14Swindon TownSwindon Town1313:1616
15Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1316:2016
16Newport CountyNewport County1316:1615
17RochdaleRochdale1315:2215
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1315:1714
19NorthamptonNorthampton118:813
20OldhamOldham1214:1812
21ColchesterColchester1211:1612
22RotherhamRotherham1317:2312
23Port ValePort Vale116:1212
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1112:216
PromotionRelegation

About the Chesterfield vs Colchester forecast

The forecasts for this League Two match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Chesterfield and Colchester in the League Two table

In the League Two table, Chesterfield are 7th and Colchester 21st, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Chesterfield 23-17, Colchester 11-16. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Chesterfield have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.