Derby vs Bolton Prediction
England · Regular Season - 15
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Derby vs Bolton: the result in context
Derby beat Bolton 3-1 in the Championship on 6 Nov 2026. That went against recent form: Bolton had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Derby.
Their history points to a close game: 4 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Derby
Avg ratingAvg rating
1J. Widell Zetterström
24R. Nyambe
25S. Duffy
28D. Sanderson
14J. Robinson
27L. Travis
4D. Ozoh
10R. Brewster
8B. Clark
16M. Fuseini
9C. Morris
1J. Bonham
27L. Stephenson
3C. Forino-Joseph
14A. Famewo
25M. Conway
4X. Simons
8J. Sheehan
22G. Larrazabal
20R. Rodrigues
11T. Gale
10S. DalbyDerby Substitutes
Bolton Substitutes
Match Stats
DerbyBolton Team Comparison
DerbyBoltonAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Derby- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Bolton- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings, all competitions
Derby2Wins · 50%1Wins · 25%Previous meetings
16/03/2024DerbyBolton02/09/2023BoltonDerby21/01/2023DerbyBolton27/12/2022BoltonDerbyRecent Form
DerbyBoltonReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
3.74 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.76).
Cards come from 155 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28:14 | +14 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30:19 | +11 | 29 | DLWWD |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:18 | +6 | 29 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:18 | +8 | 28 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23:15 | +8 | 28 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22:18 | +4 | 26 | LLWLL |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29:15 | +14 | 24 | LDWWD |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | +6 | 24 | WDLWL |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37:23 | +14 | 23 | LDLLW |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21:19 | +2 | 22 | LWWDW |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 22 | LWDWD |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32:24 | +8 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22:23 | -1 | 21 | WLLWL |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27:27 | 0 | 18 | WDLWD |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18:20 | -2 | 18 | DWLLW |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 18 | LLWLD |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20:29 | -9 | 17 | LWLLD |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 17 | WLLLL |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13:23 | -10 | 15 | DWLLW |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:26 | -11 | 15 | LLLWD |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22:31 | -9 | 10 | LDDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14:30 | -16 | 10 | WLLDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13:30 | -17 | 8 | WLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 28:14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 30:19 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 24:18 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 26:18 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 23:15 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 22:18 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 29:15 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 24:18 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 37:23 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 21:19 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 20:18 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 32:24 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 22:23 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 27:27 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 18:20 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 23:27 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 16:24 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 13:23 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 13:23 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 15:26 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 22:31 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 13:30 | 8 |
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About the Derby vs Bolton forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Derby and Bolton in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Bolton are 18th and Derby 23rd, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Derby 14-30, Bolton 20-29. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.