Derby vs Stoke City Prediction
England · Regular Season - 11
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Derby vs Stoke City: the result in context
Stoke City beat Derby 1-0 in the Championship on 17 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Stoke City had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Derby.
Their history points to a close game: 8 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Derby
Avg ratingAvg rating
31J. Vickers
23J. Ward
24R. Nyambe
28D. Sanderson
26R. Hedges
4D. Ozoh
27L. Travis
16M. Fuseini
8B. Clark
11S. Szmodics
9C. Morris
1V. Johansson
18B. Lawal
16B. Wilmot
5L. Graham
2B. Johnson
27E. Hadji Djibril Soumaré
8E. Galbraith
17E. Bocat
7J. McGlynn
11L. Cissé
13J. DevennyDerby Substitutes
Stoke City Substitutes
Match Stats
DerbyStoke City Team Comparison
DerbyStoke CityAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Derby- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Stoke City- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
Derby3Wins · 38%3Wins · 37%Previous meetings
06/04/2026DerbyStoke City09/08/2025Stoke CityDerby03/05/2025DerbyStoke City02/11/2024Stoke CityDerby30/12/2021Stoke CityDerby18/09/2021DerbyStoke City20/03/2021Stoke CityDerby12/12/2020DerbyStoke CityRecent Form
Derby
QPRDerbyDerby
Wrexham
BurnleyDerbyDerby
BirminghamDerby
West Brom
West HamDerby
PortsmouthDerbyDerby
SwanseaDerby
Cardiff
CharltonDerbyStoke CityStoke City
Middlesbrough
BoltonStoke CityStoke City
Sheffield Utd
WatfordStoke CityCardiffStoke CityStoke CityCharltonStoke City
Norwich
WolvesStoke CityStoke City
Hull City
SouthamptonStoke CityReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
3.66 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).
Cards come from 194 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 10:25 | 5 |
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This match
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About the Derby vs Stoke City forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Derby and Stoke City in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Stoke City are 9th and Derby 23rd, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Derby 10-21, Stoke City 18-16. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.