Burnley vs Derby Prediction
England · Regular Season - 8
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Burnley vs Derby: result, form and history
Burnley and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.0 goals a game across 3 matches.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Burnley
Avg ratingAvg rating
37G. Coudert
14C. Roberts
15A. Ahmedhodžić
44Igor
23L. Pires
10M. Edwards
29J. Laurent
3M. Alleyne
5R. Hatate
7J. Bruun Larsen
11Z. Amdouni
31J. Vickers
23J. Ward
6S. Langås
28D. Sanderson
18C. Taylor
20A. Mowatt
4D. Ozoh
26R. Hedges
11S. Szmodics
8B. Clark
9C. MorrisBurnley Substitutes
Derby Substitutes
Match Stats
BurnleyDerby Team Comparison
BurnleyDerbyAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Burnley- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.4 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Derby- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings, all competitions
Burnley1Wins · 33%0Wins · 0%Previous meetings
26/08/2025BurnleyDerby
08/04/2025DerbyBurnley10/12/2024BurnleyDerbyRecent Form
Burnley
SwanseaBurnley
WrexhamBurnleyBurnley
Bristol CityBurnley
Middlesbrough
NorwichBurnley
BradfordBurnley
West BromBurnleyBurnley
West HamBurnley
Notts CountyBurnley
TorinoDerbyDerby
BirminghamDerbyWest BromWest HamDerby
PortsmouthDerbyDerbySwanseaDerby
Cardiff
CharltonDerbyDerby
Lincoln
RotherhamDerby
Burton AlbionDerbyReferee Profile
Strictness
Stricter than 51% of referees analysed
Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.
League Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 10:25 | 5 |
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This match
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About the Burnley vs Derby forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Burnley and Derby in the Championship table
Burnley and Derby are close in the Championship table, 22nd and 23rd, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Burnley 17-25, Derby 10-21. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Burnley have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.