Drogheda United vs Derry City Prediction

Drogheda United
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Derry City
United Park, Drogheda 16/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.32
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
Drogheda United Rest
7 days
Derry City Rest
6 days

Drogheda United vs Derry City: the result in context

Drogheda United beat Derry City 2-0 in the Premier Division on 16 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
28%3.10
X
28%3.30
2
44%2.22
Double Chance
1X
56%1.62
X2
72%1.32
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.78
No
47%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.14 + 1.48 = 2.62
Over 1.5
72%1.32
Over 2.5
47%2.01
Over 3.5
27%3.50
Under 1.5
28%3.10
Under 2.5
53%1.77
Under 3.5
73%1.25
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

7'Brandon Kavanagh
23'nick twiskFoul
62'Edwin AgbajeFoul
62'Thomas OluwaDissent
63'Kévin Santos INDarragh Burns out
63'Tyler·Smith INJames Clarke out
69'Thomas Oluwa INMark Doyle out
69'Brandon Kavanagh INAlfie Bates out
75'Conor Barry INGavin Whyte out
77'Shane Farrell INJago Godden out
79'Jamie StottFoul
83'Mark Doyle
87'Warren Davis INKeegan Ancelin out
90+2'Jago GoddenFoul

Lineups

Drogheda United
3-4-2-1Coach: K. Doherty
Derry City
4-3-3Coach: Mark Connolly
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.51
Fynn Michael Cordell Talley7.644F. Michael Cordell Talley
A. Quinn7.24A. Quinn
C. Keeley7.322C. Keeley
Leo Burney7.05L. Burney
E. Agbaje6.12E. Agbaje
Ethan O'Brien6.58E. O'Brien
S. Farrell6.617S. Farrell
C. Kane6.93C. Kane
B. Kavanagh8.210B. Kavanagh
W. Davis6.424W. Davis
T. Oluwa6.211T. Oluwa
Tom Norcott6.313T. Norcott
C. Dummigan6.223C. Dummigan
J. Stott6.44J. Stott
Patrick McClean7.43P. McClean
B. Fleming6.319B. Fleming
C. Barr7.222C. Barr
N. Twisk6.617N. Twisk
E. Chapman7.014E. Chapman
Kévin Santos6.721K. Santos
T. Smith6.429T. Smith
M. Duffy6.87M. Duffy

Drogheda United Substitutes

15A. Bates69'for Brandon Kavanagh6.9
9K. Ancelin87'for Warren Davis6.5
18J. Bolger
31K. Cruise
14M. Doyle69'for Thomas Oluwa83'7.5
6J. Godden77'for Shane Farrell90+2'6.6
36theo hennessy
32D. Mare
25R. Markey

Derry City Substitutes

11G. Whyte75'for Conor Barry6.0
15J. Clarke63'for Tyler·Smith6.1
32T. Doherty
25Christy Grogan
24Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
1B. Maher
10D. Markey
12D. Burns63'for Kévin Santos5.9
34C. O'Donnell

Match Stats

Drogheda UnitedDerry City
21%Ball Possession79%
4Corner Kicks11
3Yellow Cards2
4Total Shots30
2Shots on Goal5
1Shots off Goal12
1Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box21
1Blocked Shots13
7Fouls7
0Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves0
165Total Passes616
76Passes Accurate514
7Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
Derry CityDerry City
1509Elo Rating 1616
1.37Attack 1.24
1.13Defense 2.34
37%Hit Rate 81%
8.9Shots per Game 16.6
2.6Shots on Target 5.1
3.1Corners per Game 4.7
1.1Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Derry CityDerry City
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
Derry CityDerry City2Wins · 20%
2.5Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier Division26/06/2026
Derry CityDrogheda United
20
Premier Division08/05/2026
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
10
Premier Division20/03/2026
Derry CityDrogheda United
22
Premier Division26/09/2025
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
11
FAI Cup16/08/2025
Derry CityDrogheda United
0131
Premier Division27/06/2025
Derry CityDrogheda United
30
Premier Division16/05/2025
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
11
Premier Division11/04/2025
Derry CityDrogheda United
13
FAI Cup10/11/2024
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
20
Premier Division27/09/2024
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
21

Recent Form

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
4W1D5L
08/10/2026
Shamrock RoversDrogheda United
31
L
01/10/2026
TrabzonsporDrogheda United
01
W
18/09/2026
BohemiansDrogheda United
21
L
14/09/2026
ShelbourneDrogheda United
12
W
11/09/2026
Drogheda UnitedSligo Rovers
20
W
04/09/2026
Drogheda UnitedGalway United
12
L
28/08/2026
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
23
L
21/08/2026
Drogheda UnitedSt Patrick's Athl.
02
L
15/08/2026
College CorinthiansDrogheda United
03
W
07/08/2026
Galway UnitedDrogheda United
00
D
Derry CityDerry City
6W3D1L
10/10/2026
Galway UnitedDerry City
02
W
18/09/2026
Derry CityGalway United
10
W
14/09/2026
WaterfordDerry City
22
D
11/09/2026
ShelbourneDerry City
01
W
06/09/2026
Derry CityDundalk
42
W
30/08/2026
Derry CityShamrock Rovers
33
D
21/08/2026
BohemiansDerry City
53
L
14/08/2026
UCDDerry City
12
W
07/08/2026
Derry CitySligo Rovers
20
W
02/08/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Derry City
11
D

League Table

Premier Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers35208758:35+2368WLWWW
2BohemiansBohemians35188960:42+1862LWLWW
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.35179953:28+2560DLLWW
4ShelbourneShelbourne3512131050:47+349WWWDW
5Derry CityDerry City3511141048:45+347WWLWD
6Galway UnitedGalway United3510121346:51-542DLWDL
7DundalkDundalk3510121352:58-642LDLLL
8WaterfordWaterford359131351:59-840WWLLD
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United359101642:57-1537LWLLW
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers35592126:64-3824LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3558:3568
2BohemiansBohemians3560:4262
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.3553:2860
4ShelbourneShelbourne3550:4749
5Derry CityDerry City3548:4547
6Galway UnitedGalway United3546:5142
7DundalkDundalk3552:5842
8WaterfordWaterford3551:5940
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3542:5737
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3526:6424
Relegation

About the Drogheda United vs Derry City forecast

The forecasts for this Premier Division match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Drogheda United and Derry City in the Premier Division table

In the Premier Division table, Derry City are 5th and Drogheda United 9th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Drogheda United 42-57, Derry City 48-45. The full standings are on the Premier Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Derry City have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.