St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne Prediction

Richmond Park, Dublin 16/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
61%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.59
SignalNEUTRALModel68%SurpriseMediumGap-1.4%
St Patrick's Athl. Rest
27 days
Shelbourne Rest
7 days

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne: the result in context

Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 in the Premier Division on 16 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.59
X
22%3.98
2
18%5.01
Double Chance
1X
82%1.14
X2
40%2.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.75
No
46%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.93 + 0.96 = 2.89
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
58%1.73
Over 3.5
35%2.75
Under 1.5
23%4.00
Under 2.5
42%2.06
Under 3.5
65%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

15'Aidan Keena(Penalty missed)
43'Jamie LennonAssist: Barry Baggley
49'Sean MooreAssist: Daniel Kelly
62'Kian Leavy INRyan Sheridan out
66'Ademipo Odubeko INJohn Martin out
66'Marco Untergrabner INJonathan Lunney out
71'James Norris INSam Bone out
72'Jack Henry-Francis INAlistair Coote out
72'Barry Baggley INChristopher Forrester out
72'Anthony Olusanya INRyan Edmondson out
80'Jason McClellandFoul
81'Daniel KellyFoul
83'Aidan Keena INRomal Palmer out
83'Jason McClelland INJames Brown out
84'Daniel Kelly
88'Sean Moore INSean Boyd out
90'Alistair CooteSerious foul
90+4'Eddie BeachDissent

Lineups

St Patrick's Athl.
3-4-3Coach: S. Kenny
Shelbourne
5-4-1Coach: J. Russell
Avg rating6.46
Avg rating6.46
J. Anang5.794J. Anang
J. Redmond6.64J. Redmond
S. Hoare7.02S. Hoare
L. Turner6.624L. Turner
Z. Elbouzedi6.47Z. Elbouzedi
J. Lennon7.96J. Lennon
B. Baggley7.719B. Baggley
J. McClelland6.311J. McClelland
K. Leavy5.910K. Leavy
A. Olusanya5.421A. Olusanya
A. Keena6.89A. Keena
E. Beach6.719E. Beach
D. Kelly7.417D. Kelly
M. Untergrabner6.424M. Untergrabner
O. Casey6.816O. Casey
K. Ledwidge6.14K. Ledwidge
James Barry Norris6.518J. Barry Norris
S. Moore7.522S. Moore
Jack Henry-Francis5.921J. Henry-Francis
K. McInroy6.623K. McInroy
E. Caffrey6.427E. Caffrey
M. Odubeko6.211M. Odubeko

St Patrick's Athl. Substitutes

3A. Breslin
23J. Brown83'for Jason McClelland6.1
27R. Edmondson72'for Anthony Olusanya6.4
8C. Forrester72'for Barry Baggley6.1
33S. McHale
16D. Nugent
17R. Palmer83'for Aidan Keena6.0
1D. Rogers
48R. Sheridan62'for Kian Leavy6.6

Shelbourne Substitutes

55James Roche
10J. Martin66'for Ademipo Odubeko6.3
6J. Lunney66'for Marco Untergrabner6.2
36W. Jarvis
2S. Gannon
14A. Coote72'for Jack Henry-Francis90'5.4
9S. Boyd88'for Sean Moore6.7
15S. Bone71'for James Norris6.3
31C. Walsh

Match Stats

St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne
62%Ball Possession38%
12Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
24Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal2
12Shots off Goal6
16Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box6
7Blocked Shots2
7Fouls8
2Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves4
506Total Passes332
397Passes Accurate245
8Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.
ShelbourneShelbourne
1630Elo Rating 1599
0.92Attack 2.29
2.38Defense 2.13
31%Hit Rate 83%
19.6Shots per Game 14.4
4.7Shots on Target 4.6
6.3Corners per Game 5.2
1.2Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ShelbourneShelbourne
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.4Wins · 40%
Draws220%
ShelbourneShelbourne4Wins · 40%
2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier Division09/08/2026
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.
12
Premier Division15/05/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne
01
Premier Division06/03/2026
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.
23
Premier Division01/11/2025
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.
00
FAI Cup17/08/2025
St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne
20
Premier Division16/06/2025
St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne
01
Premier Division09/05/2025
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.
21
Premier Division04/04/2025
St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne
00
Premier Division30/09/2024
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.
23
Premier Division20/05/2024
St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne
12

Recent Form

St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.
6W2D2L
19/09/2026
Sligo RoversSt Patrick's Athl.
01
W
14/09/2026
DundalkSt Patrick's Athl.
04
W
11/09/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Shamrock Rovers
20
W
05/09/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Bohemians
7080
L
28/08/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Waterford
02
L
21/08/2026
Drogheda UnitedSt Patrick's Athl.
02
W
16/08/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Shamrock Rovers
3222
W
09/08/2026
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.
12
W
02/08/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Derry City
11
D
24/07/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Dundalk
11
D

League Table

Premier Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers35208758:35+2368WLWWW
2BohemiansBohemians35188960:42+1862LWLWW
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.35179953:28+2560DLLWW
4ShelbourneShelbourne3512131050:47+349WWWDW
5Derry CityDerry City3511141048:45+347WWLWD
6Galway UnitedGalway United3510121346:51-542DLWDL
7DundalkDundalk3510121352:58-642LDLLL
8WaterfordWaterford359131351:59-840WWLLD
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United359101642:57-1537LWLLW
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers35592126:64-3824LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3558:3568
2BohemiansBohemians3560:4262
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.3553:2860
4ShelbourneShelbourne3550:4749
5Derry CityDerry City3548:4547
6Galway UnitedGalway United3546:5142
7DundalkDundalk3552:5842
8WaterfordWaterford3551:5940
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3542:5737
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3526:6424
Relegation

About the St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne forecast

As a derby, this Premier Division meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in the Premier Division table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: St Patrick's Athl. are 3rd in the Premier Division, 11 points ahead of Shelbourne in 4th. League goal record so far: St Patrick's Athl. 53-28, Shelbourne 50-47. The full standings are on the Premier Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.