FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Prediction

FC Midtjylland
1-6
Finished
HT 1-1
Ajax
MCH Arena, Herning·Paweł Raczkowski, Poland 05/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.8 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel38%SurpriseMediumGap-3.3%
FC Midtjylland Rest
4 days
Ajax Rest
4 days

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: the result in context

Ajax beat FC Midtjylland 6-1 in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 5 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Paweł Raczkowski averages 5.19 cards a game, 0.88 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%3.04
X
25%3.90
2
41%2.10
Double Chance
1X
59%1.70
X2
66%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.36
No
37%2.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.27 = 2.78
Over 1.5
83%1.10
Over 2.5
63%1.40
Over 3.5
42%2.02
Under 1.5
17%6.50
Under 2.5
37%2.81
Under 3.5
58%1.79
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 3.8 = 8.7
Over 8.5
49%1.49
Over 9.5
38%1.86
Over 10.5
28%2.38
Under 8.5
51%2.40
Under 9.5
62%1.88
Under 10.5
72%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.1 = 4.1
Over 3.5
58%1.60
Over 4.5
39%2.15
Under 3.5
42%2.25
Under 4.5
61%1.65

Match Events

9'T. ArokodareAssist: O. Gloukh
28'F. Etim
35'K. WatjenFoul
43'K. WatjenFoul
43'K. WatjenFoul
45+1'D. CastilloTripping
46'D. Castillo INP. Bravo out
46'Cho Gue-Sung IND. Beni out
46'F. Etim INJ. Emefile out
52'T. ArokodareAssist: A. Ouazane
59'O. WijndalAssist: T. Arokodare
60'S. Johannesen INS. Iheanacho out
67'D. KlaassenAssist: T. Kehrer
68'P. Billing INHong Hyun-Seok out
68'O. Wijndal IND. Blind out
68'A. Ouazane INR. Bounida out
70'T. Arokodare INMarcos Leonardo out
70'Y. Baas INM. Abdalla out
74'O. GloukhAssist: R. Bounida
75'D. Klaassen INJ. Torrents out
82'Marcos LeonardoAssist: O. Gloukh

Lineups

FC Midtjylland
3-4-1-2
Ajax
4-2-3-1
Avg rating6.34
Avg rating7.55
Nordin Bakker4.625N. Bakker
Ousmane Diao5.54O. Diao
Mads Bech Sørensen6.922M. Bech Sørensen
Victor Bak Jensen6.355V. Bak Jensen
Rasmus KristensenC6.95R. Kristensen
Kjell Wätjen5.729K. Wätjen
Philip Billing6.38P. Billing
Sofus Johannesen7.227S. Johannesen
Denil Castillo7.021D. Castillo
Gue-sung Cho6.910G. Cho
Friday Etim7.290F. Etim
Marc-André ter Stegen6.91M. ter Stegen
Lucas Rosa7.62L. Rosa
Thilo Kehrer9.26T. Kehrer
Dies Janse7.636D. Janse
Owen Wijndal8.35O. Wijndal
Davy KlaassenC6.918D. Klaassen
Youri Baas8.615Y. Baas
Abdellah Ouazane7.368A. Ouazane
Jorthy Mokio6.224J. Mokio
Oscar Gloukh10.010O. Gloukh
Tolu Arokodare7.999T. Arokodare

FC Midtjylland Substitutes

15Beni Junior46'for Cho Gue-Sung5.9
19Pedro Bravo46'for D. Castillo6.5
38Julius Emefile46'for F. Etim6.0
18Stanley Iheanacho60'for S. Johannesen6.3
30Ovie Ejeheri
60Mark Ugboh
34Abdou Aziz Ndiaye
20Hong Hyun-seok68'for P. Billing6.2
9Mileta Rajović
17Mikael Uhre

Ajax Substitutes

22Joeri Heerkens
26Maarten Paes
17Daley Blind68'for O. Wijndal7.2
21Jofre Torrents75'for D. Klaassen6.7
30Aaron Bouwman
67Mohamed Abdalla70'for Y. Baas6.2
23Steven Berghuis
38Marcos Leonardo70'for T. Arokodare82'7.3
43Rayane Bounida68'for A. Ouazane6.9
49Diego Pugno

Match Stats

FC MidtjyllandAjax
29%Ball Possession71%
1Corner Kicks8
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
10Total Shots24
4Shots on Goal11
2Shots off Goal9
7Shots Inside Box20
3Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots4
10Fouls8
1Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves3
305Total Passes728
230Passes Accurate667
75%Pass Accuracy92%

Team Comparison

FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland
AjaxAjax
1777Elo Rating 1906
1.84Attack 3.27
0.26Defense 2.25
59%Hit Rate 100%
14.3Shots per Game 17.0
4.6Shots on Target 6.6
3.0Corners per Game 4.9
2.0Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AjaxAjax
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 1.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
AjaxAjax2Wins · 100%
3.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

UEFA Champions League25/11/2020
AjaxFC Midtjylland
31
UEFA Champions League03/11/2020
FC MidtjyllandAjax
12

Referee Profile

Paweł Raczkowski221 matches

5.19Cards per match
4.99Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Paweł Raczkowski5.19
Other referees4.31

5.19 cards a match, 0.88 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.31).

Cards come from 184 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Europa Conference League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC LuganoFC Lugano330011:4+79WWW
2PanathinaikosPanathinaikos33009:3+69WWW
3TwenteTwente33008:2+69WWW
4MonacoMonaco33007:1+69WWW
5BrightonBrighton32105:0+57WDW
6BrannBrann32107:3+47DWW
7FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen32107:3+47WDW
8Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea Craiova32106:2+47WWD
9Mjallby AIFMjallby AIF32105:1+47WDW
10St. TruidenSt. Truiden32104:1+37DWW
11AjaxAjax32019:3+66WWL
12TrabzonsporTrabzonspor32016:3+36LWW
13HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split32013:2+16LWW
14SC FreiburgSC Freiburg32014:5-16WLW
15FK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena Zvezda31116:604WDL
16AtalantaAtalanta31114:404DLW
17SC BragaSC Braga31112:3-14DWL
18GentGent31111:2-14DLW
19RigaRiga30303:303DDD
20FC ThunFC Thun31023:303WLL
21Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka31023:4-13LWL
22Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC31023:6-33WLL
23FK JablonecFK Jablonec30213:4-12DDL
24AarhusAarhus30211:2-12DDL
25FC NordsjaellandFC Nordsjaelland30213:5-22LDD
26Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë30212:4-22LDD
27Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty30213:7-42DLD
28CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia30124:6-21LDL
29FC Iberia 1999FC Iberia 199930122:5-31LDL
30PafosPafos30123:7-41LDL
31GetafeGetafe30123:7-41LLD
32Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian30122:6-41LLD
33KuPSKuPS30122:6-41DLL
34FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland30122:8-61LLD
35Inter Club d'EscaldesInter Club d'Escaldes30032:7-50LLL
36Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris30031:11-100LLL
Conference League

About the FC Midtjylland vs Ajax forecast

This is a UEFA Europa Conference League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Midtjylland and Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League table

In the UEFA Europa Conference League table, Ajax are 11th and FC Midtjylland 34th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: FC Midtjylland 2-8, Ajax 9-3. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa Conference League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Ajax have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. FC Midtjylland and Ajax have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.