Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Prediction

Fortuna Sittard
1-5
Finished
HT 0-1
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard·J. Manschot 12/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 4.5
1.50
SignalGOODModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+7.4%
Fortuna Sittard Rest
6 days
Ajax Rest
7 days

Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax: result, form and history

Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 5-1 in the Eredivisie on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Ajax have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.9 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
13%6.50
X
21%5.13
2
66%1.40
Double Chance
1X
34%2.89
X2
87%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.50
No
40%2.42
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.79 = 3.04
Over 1.5
85%1.10
Over 2.5
63%1.36
Over 3.5
39%1.95
Under 1.5
15%6.60
Under 2.5
37%3.00
Under 3.5
61%1.85
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.8 + 6.5 = 10.3
Over 8.5
65%1.27
Over 9.5
56%1.50
Over 10.5
44%1.81
Under 8.5
35%3.20
Under 9.5
44%2.42
Under 10.5
56%1.92
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.9
Over 3.5
32%1.88
Over 4.5
16%2.67
Under 3.5
68%1.78
Under 4.5
84%1.35

Match Events

6'Jorthy MokioFoul
23'Youri BaasFoul
35'Julian Brandt
44'Lequincio ZeefuikFoul
45'Lequincio Zeefuik INAnthony Descotte out
52'Anthony Descotte
57'Oliver Valaker Edvardsen INAbdellah Ouazane out
58'Jorthy Mokio INDavy Klaassen out
62'Thilo Kehrer
64'Steven BerghuisFoul
68'Steven Berghuis INViktor Tsygankov out
71'Caio HenriqueFoul
73'Davy KlaassenAssist: Thilo Kehrer
74'Julian Brandt INOscar Gloukh out
74'Tolu Arokodare INKasper Dolberg out
76'Jasper Dahlhaus INNick de Groot out
76'Mohammed Ihattaren INSyb Van Ottele out
79'Kasper DolbergAssist: Oscar Gloukh
81'Abdellah OuazaneFoul
86'Edouard Michut INMoussa Gbemou out
89'Ole Romeny INKevin Van Burgsteden out
90+6'Youri BaasAssist: Viktor Tsygankov

Lineups

Fortuna Sittard
5-3-2Coach: D. Buijs
Ajax
4-3-3Coach: Míchel
Avg rating6.11
Avg rating6.98
M. Branderhorst6.931M. Branderhorst
Ivo Pinto6.012I. Pinto
P. Brittijn5.523P. Brittijn
Rodrigo Guth6.23R. Guth
Justin Quincy Hubner6.328J. Quincy Hubner
J. Dahlhaus5.78J. Dahlhaus
M. Ihattaren5.452M. Ihattaren
É. Michut6.320É. Michut
Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand6.322S. Kiesar ’t Zand
L. Zeefuik6.125L. Zeefuik
O. Romeny5.610O. Romeny
M. ter Stegen6.91M. ter Stegen
A. Gaaei7.33A. Gaaei
T. Kehrer8.56T. Kehrer
Y. Baas6.415Y. Baas
Caio Henrique6.812C. Henrique
J. Mokio6.124J. Mokio
S. Amrabat7.24S. Amrabat
J. Brandt8.18J. Brandt
S. Berghuis7.123S. Berghuis
T. Arokodare6.799T. Arokodare
O. Edvardsen6.320O. Edvardsen

Fortuna Sittard Substitutes

9A. Descotte45'for Lequincio Zeefuik52'8.1
39Ganni Buyukhan
38Moussa Gbemou86'for Edouard Michut5.8
1L. Koopmans
44David Stockbrink
15N. de Groot76'for Jasper Dahlhaus5.7
35K. van Burgsteden89'for Ole Romeny6.0
6S. van Ottele76'for Mohammed Ihattaren5.8
33K. Reitmaier

Ajax Substitutes

2Lucas Rosa
68A. Ouazane57'for Oliver Valaker Edvardsen81'6.6
26M. Paes
38Marcos Leonardo
21Jofre Torrents
11V. Tsygankov68'for Steven Berghuis6.7
5O. Wijndal
18D. Klaassen58'for Jorthy Mokio73'7.2
36D. Janse
22J. Heerkens
10O. Gloukh74'for Julian Brandt6.5
9K. Dolberg74'for Tolu Arokodare79'7.4

Match Stats

Fortuna SittardAjax
35%Ball Possession65%
3Corner Kicks11
1Yellow Cards5
8Total Shots27
4Shots on Goal11
2Shots off Goal12
4Shots Inside Box24
4Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots4
5Fouls12
2Offsides1
6Goalkeeper Saves3
331Total Passes621
270Passes Accurate563
82%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
AjaxAjax
1685Elo Rating 1906
1.39Attack 3.27
1.80Defense 2.25
19%Hit Rate 100%
10.2Shots per Game 17.0
4.1Shots on Target 6.6
3.9Corners per Game 4.9
1.4Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.04 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.3 in first half)
AjaxAjax
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 1.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard0Wins · 0%
Draws220%
AjaxAjax8Wins · 80%
3.9Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Eredivisie14/02/2026
AjaxFortuna Sittard
41
Eredivisie06/12/2025
Fortuna SittardAjax
13
Eredivisie09/02/2025
Fortuna SittardAjax
02
Eredivisie18/09/2024
AjaxFortuna Sittard
50
Eredivisie10/03/2024
AjaxFortuna Sittard
22
Eredivisie03/09/2023
Fortuna SittardAjax
00
Eredivisie09/04/2023
AjaxFortuna Sittard
40
Eredivisie06/08/2022
Fortuna SittardAjax
23
Eredivisie22/12/2021
AjaxFortuna Sittard
50
Eredivisie21/09/2021
Fortuna SittardAjax
05

Recent Form

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
6W1D3L
06/09/2026
ADO Den HaagFortuna Sittard
23
W
28/08/2026
GroningenFortuna Sittard
23
W
22/08/2026
Fortuna SittardAZ Alkmaar
02
L
15/08/2026
Fortuna SittardCambuur
31
W
08/08/2026
PSV EindhovenFortuna Sittard
22
D
31/07/2026
Fortuna SittardApoel Nicosia
21
W
25/07/2026
MetzFortuna Sittard
31
L
17/07/2026
Olympiakos PiraeusFortuna Sittard
31
L
11/07/2026
Fortuna SittardGenk
21
W
03/07/2026
Fortuna SittardK. Lierse S.K.
10
W

Referee Profile

J. Manschot185 matches

3.43Cards per match
3.32Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
19.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

J. Manschot3.43
Other referees3.18

3.43 cards a match, 0.25 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.18).

Cards come from 183 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1282240:15+2526WWDLW
2FeyenoordFeyenoord1274136:17+1925LDDWW
3AjaxAjax1274132:15+1725DWWWD
4TwenteTwente1273230:12+1824DWWLD
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1272324:16+823WLLDL
6HeerenveenHeerenveen1263324:16+821WWWWL
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1255220:20020DDWDD
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1245324:27-317WLWLD
9GroningenGroningen1243529:28+115LLDLW
10CambuurCambuur1243525:27-215LWWDW
11NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1235420:21-114WLDDD
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1233621:29-812LWLWD
13PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1233613:24-1112DWDWL
14UtrechtUtrecht1233621:34-1312LLDWW
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1232716:29-1311LLLLL
16TelstarTelstar1224618:25-710DWLLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1223716:25-99WLLWD
18Willem IIWillem II1203911:40-293DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1240:1526
2FeyenoordFeyenoord1236:1725
3AjaxAjax1232:1525
4TwenteTwente1230:1224
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1224:1623
6HeerenveenHeerenveen1224:1621
7Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1220:2020
8GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1224:2717
9GroningenGroningen1229:2815
10CambuurCambuur1225:2715
11NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1220:2114
12Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1221:2912
13PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1213:2412
14UtrechtUtrecht1221:3412
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1216:2911
16TelstarTelstar1218:2510
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1216:259
18Willem IIWillem II1211:403
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About the Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fortuna Sittard and Ajax in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, Ajax are 3rd and Fortuna Sittard 7th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Fortuna Sittard 20-20, Ajax 32-15. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Ajax have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.