Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro·Cristian Garay, Chile 12/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.8 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel59%SurpriseMediumGap-1.3%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.46
SignalHIGHModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+10.0%
Fluminense Rest
2 days
Independ. Rivadavia Rest
3 days

Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia: the result in context

Fluminense and Independ. Rivadavia drew 0-0 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 11 Aug 2026. Independ. Rivadavia had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against none for Fluminense.

Referee Cristian Garay averages 4.64 cards a game, 0.80 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.70
X
28%3.46
2
19%5.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.14
X2
47%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%2.26
No
57%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.34 + 0.86 = 2.20
Over 1.5
69%1.45
Over 2.5
37%2.41
Over 3.5
18%4.50
Under 1.5
31%2.65
Under 2.5
63%1.56
Under 3.5
82%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.5 = 8.9
Over 8.5
57%1.83
Over 9.5
44%2.36
Over 10.5
33%3.15
Under 8.5
43%1.86
Under 9.5
56%1.52
Under 10.5
67%1.29
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 3 = 5.3
Over 3.5
75%1.30
Over 4.5
60%1.60
Under 3.5
25%3.10
Under 4.5
40%2.22

Match Events

17'L. CostaTripping
45'IgnacioTripping
46'R. Castillo INA. Canobbio out
46'Hercules INL. Acosta out
55'Guilherme Arana INRene out
62'Hulk ING. Cano out
66'L. Costa INK. A. Vazquez out
66'L. Bucca ING. Rios out
70'NonatoRoughing
78'Y. Soteldo INJ. Savarino out
78'Nonato INPH Ganso out
79'I. Villalba INA. Osella out
79'M. Salas INA. Vigo out
89'M. Fernandez IND. Crego out
90+5'A. Arce INS. Moreyra out

Lineups

Fluminense
4-3-3Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis
Independ. Rivadavia
4-4-2Coach: Alfredo Berti
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.67
Fábio7.21Fábio
Guga7.523Guga
Ignácio6.54Ignácio
Thiago SilvaC7.33T. Silva
Guilherme Arana6.913G. Arana
Hércules6.935Hércules
Martinelli7.28Martinelli
Nonato6.316Nonato
Hulk6.57Hulk
Rodrigo Castillo6.619R. Castillo
Yeferson Soteldo6.930Y. Soteldo
Nicolás Bolcato6.91N. Bolcato
Ezequiel Bonifacio7.036E. Bonifacio
Iván Villalba6.940I. Villalba
Sheyko Studer7.042S. Studer
Juan Manuel Elordi6.93J. Manuel Elordi
Matías Fernández6.210M. Fernández
Leonard Costa6.92L. Costa
Tomás Bottari6.75T. Bottari
Leonel Bucca6.08L. Bucca
Alex ArceC6.39A. Arce
Maximiliano Salas6.617M. Salas

Fluminense Substitutes

17Agustín Canobbio46'for R. Castillo6.5
32Luciano Acosta46'for Hercules7.3
6Renê55'for Guilherme Arana6.3
14Germán Cano62'for Hulk6.5
27Marcelo Pitaluga
44Jemmes
21Igor Rabello
2Samuel Xavier
90Kevin Serna
11Jefferson Savarino78'for Y. Soteldo6.6
94Otávio
10Ganso78'for Nonato6.7

Independ. Rivadavia Substitutes

11Gonzalo Ríos66'for L. Bucca6.6
32Kevin Vázquez66'for L. Costa7.0
21Emmanuel Gómez
13Alejo Osella79'for I. Villalba6.7
28Alex Vigo79'for M. Salas6.3
14Luciano Gómez
27Diego Crego89'for M. Fernandez
34Stefano Moreyra90+5'for A. Arce
23Luis Díaz
19Rodrigo Atencio
43Fabrizio Sartori
7Victorio Ramis

Match Stats

FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
74%Ball Possession26%
7Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box8
8Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots3
5Fouls14
0Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves3
667Total Passes233
576Passes Accurate157
86%Pass Accuracy67%

Team Comparison

FluminenseFluminense
Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
1729Elo Rating 1723
1.27Attack 1.34
1.66Defense 1.14
46%Hit Rate 27%
11.6Shots per Game 12.3
3.7Shots on Target 3.0
5.8Corners per Game 4.0
1.4Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

FluminenseFluminense0Wins · 0%
Draws150%
Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores07/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaFluminense
11
CONMEBOL Libertadores16/04/2026
FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
12

Recent Form

FluminenseFluminense
2W6D2L
09/08/2026
BotafogoFluminense
11
D
06/08/2026
FluminenseVasco DA Gama
13
L
01/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaFluminense
00
D
30/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
00
D
26/07/2026
GremioFluminense
11
D
18/07/2026
FluminenseRB Bragantino
11
D
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
W
01/06/2026
CruzeiroFluminense
11
D
28/05/2026
FluminenseDeportivo La Guaira
31
W
24/05/2026
MirassolFluminense
10
L
Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
5W3D2L
08/08/2026
Independ. RivadaviaEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
21
W
03/08/2026
Sarmiento JuninIndepend. Rivadavia
21
L
31/07/2026
Independ. RivadaviaHuracan
21
W
26/07/2026
Atletico TucumanIndepend. Rivadavia
00
D
28/05/2026
BolívarIndepend. Rivadavia
13
W
22/05/2026
Deportivo La GuairaIndepend. Rivadavia
24
W
10/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaUnion Santa Fe
12
L
07/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaFluminense
11
D
03/05/2026
AldosiviIndepend. Rivadavia
11
D
01/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaDeportivo La Guaira
41
W

Referee Profile

Cristian Garay185 matches

4.64Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.34Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Cristian Garay4.64
Other referees5.44

4.64 cards a match, 0.80 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.44).

Cards come from 156 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia651015:6+916WWDWW
2FluminenseFluminense62227:708WWDLL
3BolívarBolívar61236:8-25LLDWD
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira60336:13-73LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia615:616
2FluminenseFluminense67:78
3BolívarBolívar66:85
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira66:133

About the Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fluminense and Independ. Rivadavia in the CONMEBOL Libertadores table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Independ. Rivadavia are 1st in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, 8 points ahead of Fluminense in 2nd. League goal record so far: Fluminense 7-7, Independ. Rivadavia 15-6. The full standings are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fluminense and Independ. Rivadavia have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.