Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense Prediction

CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld World · Round of 16
CupKnockout
Independ. Rivadavia
1-1
After Penalties
HT 0-0AET 0-0PEN 4-5
Fluminense
Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza·Andres Rojas, Colombia 19/08/2026
Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
1-1
After Penalties
FluminenseFluminense

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.8 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+11.5%
Independ. Rivadavia Rest
3 days
Fluminense Rest
3 days

Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense: the result in context

Fluminense beat Independ. Rivadavia on penalties (5-4) after a 1-1 draw in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 18 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 1.7 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.59
X
27%2.85
2
28%3.09
Double Chance
1X
72%1.35
X2
55%1.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.14
No
55%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.01 = 2.48
Over 1.5
70%1.57
Over 2.5
37%2.75
Over 3.5
18%5.50
Under 1.5
30%2.35
Under 2.5
63%1.44
Under 3.5
82%1.13
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 3.5 = 9.7
Over 8.5
58%1.77
Over 9.5
46%2.30
Over 10.5
35%3.02
Under 8.5
42%1.96
Under 9.5
54%1.57
Under 10.5
65%1.31
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.6 = 5
Over 3.5
73%1.18
Over 4.5
54%1.38
Under 3.5
27%4.03
Under 4.5
46%2.70

Match Events

12'HerculesHandling
25'S. StuderTripping
38'A. CanobbioTripping
53'L. BuccaTripping
57'A. CanobbioTripping
57'A. CanobbioTripping
60'HulkRoughing
60'Y. SoteldoUnsportsmanlike conduct
64'A. ArceTripping
66'PH Ganso INL. Acosta out
66'Hulk INK. Serna out
75'K. SernaAssist: Hercules
82'Y. Soteldo INJ. Millan out
82'L. Bucca INL. Sabato out
82'T. Bottari INR. Atencio out
87'E. Bonifacio INA. Vigo out
90+4'R. CastilloUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+7'A. Arce(Penalty)
90+8'J. M. Elordi INI. Villalba out

Penalty Shootout4 - 5

1Thiago Silva(Penalty)
1M. Fernandez(Penalty)
2L. Acosta(Penalty missed)
2I. Villalba(Penalty)
3Rene(Penalty)
3J. I. Florentin Bobadilla(Penalty missed)
4Hercules(Penalty)
4M. Salas(Penalty)
5Martinelli(Penalty)
5A. Arce(Penalty)
6Guga(Penalty)
6(Penalty missed)

Lineups

Independ. Rivadavia
4-4-2Coach: Alfredo Berti
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcao
Avg rating6.55
Avg rating6.66
Nicolás Bolcato6.81N. Bolcato
Ezequiel Bonifacio36E. Bonifacio
Leonard Costa6.52L. Costa
Sheyko Studer6.342S. Studer
Juan Manuel Elordi6.43J. Manuel Elordi
Matías Fernández10M. Fernández
José Florentín6.625J. Florentín
Tomás Bottari5T. Bottari
Leonel Bucca8L. Bucca
Alex Arce6.49A. Arce
Maximiliano Salas6.917M. Salas
Fábio6.81Fábio
Guga6.223Guga
Ignácio6.64Ignácio
Thiago Silva6.93T. Silva
Renê6.96Renê
Hércules6.435Hércules
Martinelli7.18Martinelli
Agustín Canobbio6.517A. Canobbio
Ganso6.610Ganso
Yeferson Soteldo6.630Y. Soteldo
Hulk6.87Hulk

Independ. Rivadavia Substitutes

21Emmanuel Gómez
40Iván Villalba90+8'for J. M. Elordi
28Alex Vigo87'for E. Bonifacio
13Alejo Osella
14Luciano Gómez
34Stefano Moreyra
23Luis Díaz
32Kevin Vázquez
43Fabrizio Sartori
19Rodrigo Atencio82'for T. Bottari
7Victorio Ramis
45Luciano Sábato82'for L. Bucca

Fluminense Substitutes

27Marcelo Pitaluga
44Jemmes
46Júlio Fidelis
29Julián Millán82'for Y. Soteldo
13Guilherme Arana
2Samuel Xavier
90Kevin Serna66'for Hulk75'
16Nonato
94Otávio
32Luciano Acosta66'for PH Ganso
19Rodrigo Castillo90+4'
14Germán Cano

Match Stats

Independ. RivadaviaFluminense
48%Ball Possession52%
7Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
13Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots3
18Fouls11
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
345Total Passes417
276Passes Accurate343
80%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
FluminenseFluminense
1723Elo Rating 1729
1.34Attack 1.27
1.14Defense 1.66
27%Hit Rate 46%
12.3Shots per Game 11.6
3.0Shots on Target 3.7
4.0Corners per Game 5.8
2.8Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1Wins · 33%
Draws267%
FluminenseFluminense0Wins · 0%
1.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores12/08/2026
FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
00
CONMEBOL Libertadores07/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaFluminense
11
CONMEBOL Libertadores16/04/2026
FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
12

Recent Form

Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia
4W3D3L
16/08/2026
Belgrano CordobaIndepend. Rivadavia
20
L12/08/2026
FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
00
D08/08/2026
Independ. RivadaviaEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
21
W03/08/2026
Sarmiento JuninIndepend. Rivadavia
21
L31/07/2026
Independ. RivadaviaHuracan
21
W26/07/2026
Atletico TucumanIndepend. Rivadavia
00
D
28/05/2026
BolívarIndepend. Rivadavia
13
W
22/05/2026
Deportivo La GuairaIndepend. Rivadavia
24
W
10/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaUnion Santa Fe
12
L
07/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaFluminense
11
D
FluminenseFluminense
2W7D1L
15/08/2026
FluminensePalmeiras
32
W12/08/2026
FluminenseIndepend. Rivadavia
00
D09/08/2026
BotafogoFluminense
11
D06/08/2026
FluminenseVasco DA Gama
13
L01/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaFluminense
00
D30/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
00
D26/07/2026
GremioFluminense
11
D18/07/2026
FluminenseRB Bragantino
11
D
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
W
01/06/2026
CruzeiroFluminense
11
D

Referee Profile

Andres Rojas219 matches

5.96Cards per match
5.56Yellow cards per match
0.40Red cards per match
25.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andres Rojas5.96
Other referees5.58

5.96 cards a match, 0.38 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.58).

Cards come from 202 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia651015:6+916WWDWW
2FluminenseFluminense62227:708WWDLL
3BolívarBolívar61236:8-25LLDWD
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira60336:13-73LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia615:616
2FluminenseFluminense67:78
3BolívarBolívar66:85
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira66:133

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About the Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Independ. Rivadavia and Fluminense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Independ. Rivadavia are 1st in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, 8 points ahead of Fluminense in 2nd. League goal record so far: Independ. Rivadavia 15-6, Fluminense 7-7. The full standings are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.