Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction

Heerenveen
4-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Excelsior
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen·Robin Hensgens 16/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel58%SurpriseMediumGap-5.5%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.58
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+2.6%
Heerenveen Rest
7 days
Excelsior Rest
5 days

Heerenveen vs Excelsior: result, form and history

Heerenveen beat Excelsior 4-0 in the Eredivisie on 16 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Heerenveen tend to win more corners, 4.7 a game to 2.3 for Excelsior.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
61%1.55
X
21%4.37
2
18%5.08
Double Chance
1X
82%1.17
X2
39%2.37
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.44
No
38%2.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.79 + 1.18 = 2.97
Over 1.5
84%1.10
Over 2.5
64%1.40
Over 3.5
43%2.04
Under 1.5
16%6.42
Under 2.5
36%2.88
Under 3.5
57%1.78
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4 = 10
Over 8.5
64%1.41
Over 9.5
53%1.70
Over 10.5
41%2.10
Under 8.5
36%2.65
Under 9.5
47%2.02
Under 10.5
59%1.63
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.7
Over 3.5
52%2.50
Over 4.5
32%-
Under 3.5
48%1.50
Under 4.5
68%-

Match Events

11'Dylan Vente(Penalty)
43'Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonFoul
45'David Garden INMario Domínguez Franco out
54'Oliver Johansen BraudeAssist: Jacob Trenskow
66'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson INIlano Silva Timas out
66'Aymen sliti INValentin Sulzbacher out
66'Simon Janssen INOsman Turay out
73'Maxence Rivera INMarko Farji out
77'Eric da Silva Moreira INNoah Naujoks out
82'Dylan Vente INRoberts Uldriķis out
82'Levi Smans INRingo Meerveld out
82'Nolhan courtens INLuca Oyen out
84'Luca OyenAssist: Ringo Meerveld
86'Maas Willemsen INHristiyan Petrov out
88'Jacob Trenskow

Lineups

Heerenveen
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Veldeman
Excelsior
4-3-3Coach: R. den Uil
Avg rating7.23
Avg rating6.04
B. Klaverboer6.71B. Klaverboer
O. Braude8.645O. Braude
S. Kersten7.44S. Kersten
M. Willemsen7.73M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis7.319V. Zagaritis
M. Linday7.016M. Linday
N. Courtens6.38N. Courtens
J. Trenskow9.020J. Trenskow
L. Smans7.114L. Smans
M. Rivera6.57M. Rivera
D. Vente7.29D. Vente
S. van Gassel5.61S. van Gassel
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira5.72E. Emanuel da Silva Moreira
C. Widell6.04C. Widell
J. Plug6.314J. Plug
S. Janssen6.115S. Janssen
I. Yegoian6.28I. Yegoian
R. Meissen5.83R. Meissen
L. Hartjes6.520L. Hartjes
A. Sliti6.37A. Sliti
D. Garden6.419D. Garden
Á. Þorsteinsson6.130Á. Þorsteinsson

Heerenveen Substitutes

23D. Bladi
49Anass Bouziane
21M. Farji73'for Maxence Rivera6.6
2M. Hilgers
28H. Petrov86'for Maas Willemsen7.0
29L. Machine
10R. Meerveld82'for Levi Smans7.1
15M. Egbring
44A. Noppert
11L. Oyen82'for Nolhan courtens84'7.4
30T. Schreuder
17R. Uldriķis82'for Dylan Vente6.7

Excelsior Substitutes

6D. van Vianen
22O. Turay66'for Simon Janssen5.7
18V. Sulzbacher66'for Aymen sliti5.9
21I. Silva Timas66'for Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson6.2
10N. Naujoks77'for Eric da Silva Moreira5.5
11A. Jahanbakhsh
28N. Groen
9Mario Domínguez45'for David Garden6.4
24Giulliano Cairo
16Celton Biai

Match Stats

HeerenveenExcelsior
52%Ball Possession48%
4Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots5
7Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal3
12Shots Inside Box3
2Shots Outside Box2
1Blocked Shots1
9Fouls10
3Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
518Total Passes489
440Passes Accurate398
9Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

HeerenveenHeerenveen
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1727Elo Rating 1643
2.39Attack 1.07
2.07Defense 0.00
66%Hit Rate 0%
16.6Shots per Game 9.4
6.3Shots on Target 2.5
4.7Corners per Game 2.3
0.7Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.97 goals

Game State Tendencies

HeerenveenHeerenveen
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ExcelsiorExcelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

HeerenveenHeerenveen3Wins · 50%
Draws117%
ExcelsiorExcelsior2Wins · 33%
2.2Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6

Previous meetings

Eredivisie07/03/2026
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
12
Eredivisie04/10/2025
HeerenveenExcelsior
21
Eredivisie19/01/2024
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
30
Eredivisie23/09/2023
HeerenveenExcelsior
03
Eredivisie13/05/2023
HeerenveenExcelsior
00
Eredivisie05/11/2022
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
01

Recent Form

HeerenveenHeerenveen
3W4D3L
09/10/2026
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
20
L
19/09/2026
Sparta RotterdamHeerenveen
04
W
13/09/2026
HeerenveenTelstar
00
D
06/09/2026
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
23
L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
22/08/2026
HeerenveenPEC Zwolle
02
L
16/08/2026
AjaxHeerenveen
22
D
09/08/2026
HeerenveenTwente
10
W
01/08/2026
HeerenveenVolos NFC
32
W
25/07/2026
HeerenveenOH Leuven
44
D
ExcelsiorExcelsior
5W2D3L

Referee Profile

Robin Hensgens162 matches

3.39Cards per match
3.25Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Robin Hensgens3.39
Other referees3.23

3.39 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.23).

Cards come from 151 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1073032:11+2124DWWWW
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar962120:10+1020DLWDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1062228:13+1520DLWLW
4AjaxAjax953127:12+1518WDDWW
5Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1053217:17018WDDWL
6TwenteTwente952217:10+717LDWWW
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1043318:13+515WWLWD
8GroningenGroningen1043324:21+315DLWWD
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1035223:23014WLDDD
10CambuurCambuur1033419:22-312WDWDW
11UtrechtUtrecht1033417:27-1012DWWLW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1025317:18-111DDDDL
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1032516:19-311LLLDL
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam923416:22-69WDLLD
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1022611:23-128DWLLL
16TelstarTelstar1013612:21-96LLDLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013613:23-106LWDDL
18Willem IIWillem II1002810:32-222LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1032:1124
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar920:1020
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1028:1320
4AjaxAjax927:1218
5Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1017:1718
6TwenteTwente917:1017
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1018:1315
8GroningenGroningen1024:2115
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1023:2314
10CambuurCambuur1019:2212
11UtrechtUtrecht1017:2712
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1017:1811
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1016:1911
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam916:229
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1011:238
16TelstarTelstar1012:216
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013:236
18Willem IIWillem II1010:322
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Heerenveen vs Excelsior forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Heerenveen and Excelsior in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, Heerenveen are 7th and Excelsior 13th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Heerenveen 18-13, Excelsior 16-19. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Heerenveen have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.