LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras Prediction

LDU de Quito
3-2
After Penalties
HT 1-1AET 0-0PEN 3-4
Palmeiras
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito·Wilmar Roldan 17/09/2026
LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
3-2
After Penalties
PalmeirasPalmeiras

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.4 / 10
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.70
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+10.8%
LDU de Quito Rest
3 days
Palmeiras Rest
4 days

LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras: result, form and history

Palmeiras beat LDU de Quito on penalties (4-3) after a 3-2 draw in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 16 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, and not once did both teams score.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
33%2.50
X
29%3.02
2
38%3.00
Double Chance
1X
62%1.36
X2
67%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.03
No
55%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.03 + 1.2 = 2.23
Over 1.5
70%1.49
Over 2.5
38%2.55
Over 3.5
20%5.00
Under 1.5
30%2.50
Under 2.5
62%1.50
Under 3.5
80%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 3.6 = 8.7
Over 8.5
55%1.38
Over 9.5
43%1.63
Over 10.5
32%2.02
Under 8.5
45%2.83
Under 9.5
57%2.15
Under 10.5
68%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.6 = 5
Over 3.5
73%1.16
Over 4.5
55%1.34
Under 3.5
27%4.75
Under 4.5
45%3.05

Match Events

10'Marlon Freitas
15'Luis SegoviaAssist: Lucas Rodriguez
56'Sebastián González INFernando Cornejo out
56'Janner Corozo INAlexander Alvarado out
61'José Manuel LópezFoul
66'Abel Fernando Moreira FerreiraAbusive Language
67'José Manuel López INVitor Roque out
68'Juan rodriguezFoul
73'Vitor Roque(Penalty)
80'Marcelo Weigandt INJose Carabali out
84'Richard Mina INDeyverson out
85'Jhon Arias INFelipe Anderson out
89'Andreas Pereira INMaurício Magalhães Prado out
90'Michael Estrada
90+3'Michael EstradaAssist: Alexander Alvarado
90+5'Michael Estrada

Penalty Shootout3 - 4

1Vitor Roque(Penalty)
1Deyverson(Penalty)
2Maurício Magalhães Prado(Penalty)
2Lucas Rodriguez(Penalty missed)
3Joaquín Piquerez(Penalty)
3Michael Estrada(Penalty)
4Lucas Evangelista(Penalty missed)
4Fernando Cornejo(Penalty)
5Felipe Anderson(Penalty)
5Luis Segovia(Penalty missed)

Lineups

LDU de Quito
3-4-1-2Coach: Gustavo Álvarez
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1Coach: Abel Ferreira
Avg rating6.78
Avg rating6.19
G. Valle6.21G. Valle
Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo6.63R. Alexander Mina Caicedo
Ricardo Ade6.84R. Ade
L. Segovia7.344L. Segovia
M. Weigandt6.757M. Weigandt
J. Rodríguez7.031J. Rodríguez
Sebastían González Baquero6.35S. González Baquero
Yerlin Quinonez6.423Y. Quinonez
L. Rodríguez7.77L. Rodríguez
J. Corozo7.013J. Corozo
M. Estrada8.411M. Estrada
Carlos Miguel5.81C. Miguel
Murilo5.626Murilo
Bruno Fuchs6.33B. Fuchs
A. Barboza5.72A. Barboza
A. Giay6.44A. Giay
Marlon Freitas7.317M. Freitas
Lucas Evangelista6.230L. Evangelista
J. Piquerez6.022J. Piquerez
J. Arias6.411J. Arias
Andreas Pereira5.68A. Pereira
J. López6.142J. López

LDU de Quito Substitutes

16Deyverson84'for Richard Mina6.5
67J. Carabalí80'for Marcelo Weigandt6.0
20F. Cornejo56'for Sebastián González6.5
28J. Cuero
22Alexander Domínguez Carabalí
8J. Pretell
33Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
99C. Tobar
77K. Velasco
15G. Villamíl
26I. Zambrano
10Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel56'for Janner Corozo6.4

Palmeiras Substitutes

43Benedetti
50Luis Felipe
32E. Martínez
18Maurício89'for Andreas Pereira5.9
14Marcelo Lomba
7Felipe Anderson85'for Jhon Arias5.8
9Vitor Roque67'for José Manuel López73'7.7
56Arthur
12Khellven
19R. Sosa
48Larson
39Heittor

Match Stats

LDU de QuitoPalmeiras
69%Ball Possession31%
10Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots11
5Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box5
7Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots3
13Fouls8
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
551Total Passes256
488Passes Accurate177
7Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
PalmeirasPalmeiras
1640Elo Rating 1874
0.97Attack 2.18
1.14Defense 2.59
0%Hit Rate 66%
13.6Shots per Game 17.3
3.1Shots on Target 5.6
4.5Corners per Game 5.9
0.9Cards per Game 1.9

Game State Tendencies

LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
PalmeirasPalmeiras
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.7 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito1Wins · 33%
Draws00%
PalmeirasPalmeiras2Wins · 67%
2.7Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores10/09/2026
PalmeirasLDU de Quito
10
CONMEBOL Libertadores31/10/2025
PalmeirasLDU de Quito
40
CONMEBOL Libertadores24/10/2025
LDU de QuitoPalmeiras
30

Recent Form

LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
5W3D2L
13/09/2026
LDU de QuitoDeportivo Cuenca
11
D
10/09/2026
PalmeirasLDU de Quito
10
L
05/09/2026
Tecnico UniversitarioLDU de Quito
13
W
02/09/2026
LDU de QuitoMushuc Runa SC
00
D
29/08/2026
Guayaquil City FCLDU de Quito
21
L
27/08/2026
LDU de QuitoAucas
10
W
24/08/2026
LDU de QuitoEmelec
20
W
21/08/2026
LDU de QuitoMirassol
5040
W
17/08/2026
AucasLDU de Quito
01
W
14/08/2026
MirassolLDU de Quito
11
D

Referee Profile

Wilmar Roldan321 matches

5.42Cards per match
4.98Yellow cards per match
0.44Red cards per match
21.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilmar Roldan5.42
Other referees5.53

5.42 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.53).

Cards come from 293 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Cerro PortenoCerro Porteno64116:2+413WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras632110:5+511WLWDW
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal62046:9-36LLLWL
4JuniorJunior61145:11-64LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Cerro PortenoCerro Porteno66:213
2PalmeirasPalmeiras610:511
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal66:96
4JuniorJunior65:114

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito64028:5+312WWLLW
2MirassolMirassol64027:4+312LWWWL
3LanusLanus63033:7-49WLLWW
4Always ReadyAlways Ready61057:9-23LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito68:512
2MirassolMirassol67:412
3LanusLanus63:79
4Always ReadyAlways Ready67:93

About the LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.4 out of 10 by our context model. Palmeiras have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.