Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 4
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.35
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-2.4%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.35
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+4.3%
Independiente Medellin Rest
2 days
Millonarios Rest
5 days
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios: result, form and history
Independiente Medellin and Millonarios drew 2-2 in the Primera A on 30 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
147%2.25
X27%3.28
226%3.00
Double Chance
1X74%1.35
X253%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.73
No46%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.48 + 0.96 = 2.44
Over 1.572%1.30
Over 2.549%1.96
Over 3.527%3.30
Under 1.528%3.20
Under 2.551%1.76
Under 3.573%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4 = 9.3
Over 8.558%1.63
Over 9.548%1.99
Over 10.535%2.60
Under 8.542%2.17
Under 9.552%1.73
Under 10.565%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 3 = 5.4
Over 3.579%1.38
Over 4.563%1.64
Under 3.521%2.70
Under 4.537%1.98
Match Events
24'Luis EscorciaOG
31'Alfonso Simarra ValdezFoul
39'Hayen PalaciosAssist: Agustín Martegani
45'Leonardo CastroAssist: Danovis Banguero
45'Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez INNivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez out
45+2'Goal confirmedLeonardo Castro
53'Nivaldo Yunior Erazo HernandezAssist: Agustín Martegani
58'Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera INAndrey Estupinan out
59'Juan Cuadrado INDavid Silva out
68'Francisco ChaverraFoul
69'Jorge AriasDissent
72'John Montano INJaidinson Córdoba Urrutia out
73'Leonai·Souza de AlmeidaFoul
78'Yony González INAndres Solano out
78'Agustín Martegani INDiego Moreno out
83'Leonai·Souza de Almeida INDarwin Quintero out
87'Leonardo Castro INAndrés Llinás out
87'Francisco Chaverra INSebastián Valencia out
88'Didier MorenoFoul
Lineups
Independiente MedellinMillonarios
4-1-3-2Coach: A. GameroAvg ratingAvg rating
25E. Chaux
30H. Palacios
39L. Escorcia
19A. Simarra
26E. Mena
14B. Perlaza
6D. Moreno
11Y. González
21A. Martegani
20J. Montaño
32C. Lucumi
1J. Burrai
30S. del Castillo
4S. Barreiro
17J. Arias
20D. Banguero
55Leonai
13F. Chaverra
28S. Vega
7J. Cuadrado
23L. Castro
10D. RuizIndependiente Medellin Substitutes
47Jaidinson Córdoba Urrutia72'replaced by John Montano
10D. Cataño
5J. Varela
28Andres Solano78'replaced by Yony González
24N. Erazo45'for Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez53'
1S. Ichazo
4K. Mantilla
31D. Moreno78'for Agustín Martegani
80Heider Vallecilla
Millonarios Substitutes
12J. Aguirre
24J. Angulo
11A. Estupiñán58'for Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera
26A. Llinás87'for Leonardo Castro
35Sebastián Mosquera
25D. Quintero83'for Leonai·Souza de Almeida
14D. Silva59'for Juan Cuadrado
22Sebastián Valencia Isaza87'for Francisco Chaverra
43C. Uparela
Match Stats
Independiente MedellinMillonarios 47%Ball Possession53%
2Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards3
9Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box3
3Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots3
12Fouls14
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
397Total Passes401
322Passes Accurate335
13Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
Independiente MedellinMillonarios1589Elo Rating 1647
1.13Attack 1.83
1.13Defense 1.86
19%Hit Rate 23%
12.6Shots per Game 14.8
3.9Shots on Target 5.3
4.3Corners per Game 4.3
3.2Cards per Game 4.2
Game State Tendencies
Independiente Medellin- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Millonarios- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente Medellin3Wins · 30%Draws440%
Millonarios3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.2Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
02/02/2026MillonariosIndependiente Medellin00
04/08/2025Independiente MedellinMillonarios10
16/02/2025MillonariosIndependiente Medellin01
19/07/2024Independiente MedellinMillonarios11
21/01/2024MillonariosIndependiente Medellin50
01/12/2023Independiente MedellinMillonarios21
26/11/2023MillonariosIndependiente Medellin10
19/09/2023Independiente MedellinMillonarios11
18/06/2023MillonariosIndependiente Medellin21
21/05/2023Independiente MedellinMillonarios22
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin6W1D3L
27/09/2026
JuniorIndependiente Medellin
23/09/2026JuniorIndependiente Medellin20
LIndependiente Medellin
Jaguares21
W18/09/2026
BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin22
D13/09/2026
ChicoIndependiente Medellin
ChicoIndependiente Medellin21
L10/09/2026
Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin14
W04/09/2026
Deportivo PereiraIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PereiraIndependiente Medellin03
W30/08/2026Independiente Medellin
Llaneros
23/08/2026Independiente MedellinLlaneros21
WIndependiente Medellin
Cucuta01
L05/08/2026
Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin23
W02/08/2026Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Cali10
WMillonarios4W5D1L
25/09/2026
Atletico NacionalMillonariosMillonariosChicoCucutaMillonariosMillonariosDeportivo CaliDeportivo PereiraMillonarios
Santa FeMillonariosMillonarios
Internacional de BogotaLlanerosMillonarios
Águilas DoradasMillonariosMillonariosDeportivo Pasto
Atletico NacionalMillonarios11
D19/09/2026MillonariosChico30
W14/09/2026CucutaMillonarios12
W11/09/2026MillonariosDeportivo Cali11
D07/09/2026Deportivo PereiraMillonarios11
D03/09/2026Santa FeMillonarios32
L31/08/2026MillonariosInternacional de Bogota00
D28/08/2026LlanerosMillonarios02
W22/08/2026Águilas DoradasMillonarios11
D05/08/2026MillonariosDeportivo Pasto20
WReferee Profile
5.97Cards per match
5.61Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
21.5Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.97 cards a match, 0.26 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.71).
Cards come from 148 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | DWWLW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | LWWLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | LWWLW |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | LWLDW |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | DDLDW |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | LWWDD |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | DLLDD |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | WWLDW |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | DWLWW |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | WDDDL |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | DLLLW |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | DLWWD |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | DWDDL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | LLDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29:11 | +18 | 31 | LWLDW |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 28:12 | +16 | 29 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 23:9 | +14 | 29 | WWLDW |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 22:13 | +9 | 25 | LLLDD |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | +7 | 25 | LWWDD |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21:19 | +2 | 23 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 21 | DWDDL |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19:17 | +2 | 20 | DDLDW |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18:18 | 0 | 20 | DWWDW |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19:20 | -1 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 18:21 | -3 | 17 | DLLDD |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 17 | WDDDL |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15:26 | -11 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12:25 | -13 | 15 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10:18 | -8 | 13 | LLDDL |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 15:21 | -6 | 11 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:28 | -12 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9:22 | -13 | 9 | LWWLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 29:11 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 28:12 | 29 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 23:9 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 22:13 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 21:14 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 21:19 | 23 |
| 8 | Cucuta | 15 | 18:22 | 21 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 15 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 18:18 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 19:20 | 19 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 18:21 | 17 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 16:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 14 | 15:26 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 12:25 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 14 | 10:18 | 13 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 14 | 15:21 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 16:28 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 9:22 | 9 |
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This match
About the Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente Medellin and Millonarios in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Independiente Medellin (11th) and Millonarios (10th) are level on 26 points. League goal record so far: Independiente Medellin 26-24, Millonarios 31-23. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.