Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 11
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.17
SignalHIGHModel67%SurpriseMediumGap-6.6%
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.87
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+5.4%
Independiente Medellin Rest
4 days
Jaguares Rest
10 days
Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares: the result in context
Independiente Medellin beat Jaguares 2-1 in the Primera A on 23 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente Medellin had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Jaguares.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
169%1.30
X19%5.00
212%9.00
Double Chance
1X88%1.06
X230%3.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.89
No49%1.81
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.05 + 0.74 = 2.79
Over 1.581%1.17
Over 2.559%1.57
Over 3.537%2.38
Under 1.519%4.60
Under 2.541%2.32
Under 3.563%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 3.3 = 9.3
Over 8.555%1.49
Over 9.542%1.86
Over 10.532%2.32
Under 8.545%2.40
Under 9.558%1.87
Under 10.568%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.7 = 4.6
Over 3.568%-
Over 4.549%-
Under 3.532%-
Under 4.551%-
Match Events
17'Andrés RenteríaArgument
23'Penalty confirmedSantiago Cubides
25'Andrés Rentería(Penalty)
32'Agustín MarteganiAssist: John Montano
34'Esneyder MenaFoul
37'Jonathan LoveraDissent
39'Rafael BustamanteFoul
40'Juan Quintero INYony González out
63'Keiner David Klinger VasquezFoul
66'Darwin Lopez INJohar Mejia out
70'John MontanoAssist: Yony González
74'Keiner David Klinger Vasquez INHalam Stiven Loboa Diaz out
75'Juan Pablo Arcila INEdwin martinez out
75'Johan Beltrán INCristian Alvarez out
75'Santiago Cubides INDuvan Rodriguez out
80'Jeison Medina INCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez out
80'Agustín Martegani INDiego Moreno out
80'John Montano INNivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez out
84'Jonathan Lovera
84'Andrés Rentería INDiego Zuluaga out
Lineups
Independiente MedellinJaguares
4-4-2Coach: H. BodhertAvg ratingAvg rating
25E. Chaux
30H. Palacios
4K. Mantilla
19A. Simarra
26E. Mena
6D. Moreno
21A. Martegani
34K. Klinger
8J. Quintero
20J. Montaño
9J. Medina
1D. Martínez
4J. Franco
6J. Lovera
29C. Henao
23J. Arcila
17D. López
5R. Colpa
21R. Bustamante
24S. Cubides
16E. Beltrán
11A. RenteríaIndependiente Medellin Substitutes
5J. Varela
11Y. González40'for Juan Quintero
39L. Escorcia
24N. Erazo80'for John Montano
1S. Ichazo
16H. Loboa74'for Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
32C. Lucumi80'for Jeison Medina
31D. Moreno80'for Agustín Martegani
14B. Perlaza
Jaguares Substitutes
27F. Gracia
3J. Malagón
14E. Martínez75'for Juan Pablo Arcila
9J. Mejia66'for Darwin Lopez
12F. Mosquera
8D. Rodríguez75'for Santiago Cubides
28D. Zuluaga84'for Andrés Rentería
19C. Cantillo
10C. Álvarez75'for Johan Beltrán
Match Stats
Independiente MedellinJaguares 54%Ball Possession46%
7Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
24Total Shots7
9Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal4
16Shots Inside Box2
8Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots2
9Fouls11
3Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves7
410Total Passes342
358Passes Accurate288
11Free Kicks8
Team Comparison
Independiente MedellinJaguares1589Elo Rating 1432
1.13Attack 1.22
1.13Defense 0.54
19%Hit Rate 19%
12.6Shots per Game 9.3
3.9Shots on Target 2.6
4.3Corners per Game 2.9
3.2Cards per Game 3.2
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+157 Elo
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente Medellin- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Jaguares- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente Medellin5Wins · 50%Draws440%
Jaguares1Wins · 10%
1Wins · 10%2.2Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
16/03/2026JaguaresIndependiente Medellin12
08/08/2025JaguaresIndependiente Medellin01
01/08/2025Independiente MedellinJaguares11
29/10/2024Independiente MedellinJaguares41
08/04/2024JaguaresIndependiente Medellin22
02/09/2023JaguaresIndependiente Medellin11
20/03/2023Independiente MedellinJaguares10
23/10/2022Independiente MedellinJaguares00
08/05/2022JaguaresIndependiente Medellin30
11/09/2021JaguaresIndependiente Medellin01
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin6W1D3L
18/09/2026
BucaramangaIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
Cucuta
Deportes TolimaIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo Cali
Vasco DA GamaIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo Pasto
BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin22
D13/09/2026
ChicoIndependiente Medellin
ChicoIndependiente Medellin21
L10/09/2026Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin14
W04/09/2026
Deportivo PereiraIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PereiraIndependiente Medellin03
W30/08/2026Independiente Medellin
Llaneros
23/08/2026Independiente MedellinLlaneros21
WIndependiente MedellinCucuta01
L05/08/2026Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin23
W02/08/2026Independiente MedellinDeportivo Cali10
W30/07/2026Vasco DA GamaIndependiente Medellin10
L25/07/2026Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto32
WJaguares2W4D4L
12/09/2026Jaguares
Fortaleza FC
JuniorJaguaresJaguares
America de CaliJaguaresChicoJaguares
Once Caldas
Internacional de BogotaJaguaresJaguares
Atletico NacionalDeportivo CaliJaguares
JaguaresFortaleza FC22
D06/09/2026JuniorJaguares33
D29/08/2026JaguaresAmerica de Cali22
D21/08/2026JaguaresChico10
W10/08/2026JaguaresOnce Caldas11
D06/08/2026Internacional de BogotaJaguares10
L02/08/2026JaguaresAtletico Nacional03
L25/07/2026Deportivo CaliJaguares20
L26/05/2026Deportivo PereiraJaguares
Deportivo PereiraJaguares10
L21/05/2026Jaguares
Ind. Yumbo
JaguaresInd. Yumbo30
WReferee Profile
5.99Cards per match
5.59Yellow cards per match
0.40Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.99 cards a match, 0.41 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.58).
Cards come from 200 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | LWWLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | LWWLW |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | LWLDW |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | DWWDW |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | LWWDD |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | WDLLD |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | DWWLD |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | LDWLW |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | WDDDL |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | DDLLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | WDLWW |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | DWDDL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 30:13 | +17 | 32 | WDWWL |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29:11 | +18 | 31 | LWLDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24:10 | +14 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 22:13 | +9 | 25 | LLLDD |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | +7 | 25 | LWWDD |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22:21 | +1 | 23 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | DDDLD |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 21 | DWDDL |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18:18 | 0 | 20 | DWWDW |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19:20 | -1 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:26 | -10 | 18 | WDLWW |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 18:22 | -4 | 17 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 17 | WDDDL |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12:25 | -13 | 15 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 11:19 | -8 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 16:22 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:28 | -12 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9:22 | -13 | 9 | LWWLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 15 | 30:13 | 32 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 29:11 | 31 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 24:10 | 30 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 22:13 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 21:14 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 15 | 22:21 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 18:22 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 18:18 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 19:20 | 19 |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 16:26 | 18 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 18:22 | 17 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 15 | 16:20 | 17 |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 12:25 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 11:19 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 16:22 | 12 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 16:28 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 9:22 | 9 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera A matches
- Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas 20/09/26
- Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota 20/09/26
- Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali 21/09/26
- Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional 21/09/26
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali 23/09/26
- America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas 24/09/26
- Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios 25/09/26
- Chico vs Deportivo Pasto 26/09/26
About the Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares forecast
The forecasts for this Primera A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente Medellin and Jaguares in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Independiente Medellin are 11th and Jaguares 16th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Independiente Medellin 26-24, Jaguares 20-33. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.