Lahti vs Mariehamn Prediction

Lahti
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Mariehamn
Lahden Stadion, Lahti 08/09/2026
LahtiLahti
2-1
Finished
MariehamnMariehamn

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalNEUTRALModel69%SurpriseMediumGap-3.7%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.1%
Lahti Rest
7 days
Mariehamn Rest
7 days

Lahti vs Mariehamn: the result in context

Lahti beat Mariehamn 2-1 in the Veikkausliiga on 8 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game. Lahti tend to win more corners, 7.1 a game to 5.0 for Mariehamn.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.53
X
20%4.13
2
14%5.50
Double Chance
1X
86%1.13
X2
34%2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.75
No
45%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.95 + 0.94 = 2.89
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
55%1.68
Over 3.5
33%2.65
Under 1.5
23%4.00
Under 2.5
45%2.11
Under 3.5
67%1.43
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

38'Aaron LindholmAssist: Tofol Montiel
60'Jelle van der Heyden INLeo Andersson out
61'Viktor Widlund INAdam Stroud out
61'Arvid Bergvik INMarlo Hyvonen out
64'Martim Ferreira INJustus Ojanen out
64'Tofol Montiel INErik Andersson out
65'Adam Stroud
71'Noah NurmiFoul
75'Topias Inkinen INVaino Vehkonen out
80'Foster gyamfiFoul
81'Romaric YapiDissent
83'Aaron Lindholm INAmir Belabid out
83'Momodou Sarr INDaniel Heikkinen out
87'Justus OjanenAssist: Vaino Vehkonen
89'José MüllerTime wasting
90+2'Vaino VehkonenFoul

Lineups

Lahti
4-3-3Coach: Gonçalo Pereira
Mariehamn
4-4-2Coach: R. Björknesjö
Avg rating6.85
Avg rating6.17
O. Maukonen7.331O. Maukonen
R. Yapi6.527R. Yapi
Nícolas7.25Nícolas
J. Muller6.84J. Muller
T. Inkinen7.025T. Inkinen
Tòfol Montiel7.68T. Montiel
Y. Cassubie7.218Y. Cassubie
O. Koskinen6.410O. Koskinen
M. Sarr6.377M. Sarr
A. Lindholm7.79A. Lindholm
Martim Ferreira6.511M. Ferreira
K. Lund6.81K. Lund
T. Koivisto5.45T. Koivisto
N. Nurmi6.22N. Nurmi
F. Gyamfi5.853F. Gyamfi
Samson Ngulube5.431S. Ngulube
V. Widlund6.023V. Widlund
J. van der Heyden6.58J. van der Heyden
E. Patut6.320E. Patut
Arvid Bergvik6.114A. Bergvik
J. Svedberg6.411J. Svedberg
T. Jakobsen6.119T. Jakobsen

Lahti Substitutes

12A. Hakala
6V. Vehkonen75'for Topias Inkinen90+2'6.1
7D. Heikkinen83'for Momodou Sarr6.3
14E. Andersson64'for Tofol Montiel6.4
20J. Ojanen64'for Martim Ferreira87'7.9
28A. Kabashi
17A. Belabid83'for Aaron Lindholm6.6
41Aleksi Paalanen
44L. Jarvinen

Mariehamn Substitutes

26M. Jansson
18A. Stroud61'for Viktor Widlund65'7.3
16A. Huttunen
3A. Soiniemi
12O. Heino
43L. Andersson60'for Jelle van der Heyden6.3
64M. Hyvönen61'for Arvid Bergvik6.0

Match Stats

LahtiMariehamn
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards2
13Total Shots9
7Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box5
3Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
9Fouls14
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
571Total Passes289
483Passes Accurate205
11Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

LahtiLahti
MariehamnMariehamn
1624Elo Rating 1482
1.99Attack 1.00
1.67Defense 1.83
41%Hit Rate 17%
19.8Shots per Game 14.1
6.8Shots on Target 2.5
7.1Corners per Game 5.0
2.1Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+141 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.89 goals

Game State Tendencies

LahtiLahti
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.8 in second half)
MariehamnMariehamn
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LahtiLahti4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
MariehamnMariehamn2Wins · 20%
1.9Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Veikkausliiga20/07/2026
MariehamnLahti
02
Suomen Cup26/05/2026
MariehamnLahti
01
Veikkausliiga10/05/2026
LahtiMariehamn
11
League Cup05/03/2026
MariehamnLahti
40
Veikkausliiga19/09/2024
LahtiMariehamn
21
Veikkausliiga18/08/2024
MariehamnLahti
00
Veikkausliiga12/05/2024
LahtiMariehamn
30
League Cup23/02/2024
LahtiMariehamn
11
Veikkausliiga08/10/2023
MariehamnLahti
00
Veikkausliiga23/07/2023
LahtiMariehamn
02

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026

Veikkausliiga

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1KuPSKuPS22127338:23+1543LLDDW
2Inter TurkuInter Turku22119229:16+1342WWLWL
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki22114736:27+937DWWDW
4GnistanGnistan22106636:29+736WLDLL
5AC OuluAC Oulu22104825:25034DWDWW
6VPSVPS2296729:22+733LLDLL
7LahtiLahti2295826:19+732WLDLW
8Turku PSTurku PS2287728:23+531LLLLD
9IlvesIlves22741134:37-325WDWWW
10SJKSJK22471125:33-819LWWDD
11FF JaroFF Jaro22361318:44-2615DWDDL
12MariehamnMariehamn22351417:43-2614DDLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1KuPSKuPS2238:2343
2Inter TurkuInter Turku2229:1642
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki2236:2737
4GnistanGnistan2236:2936
5AC OuluAC Oulu2225:2534
6VPSVPS2229:2233
7LahtiLahti2226:1932
8Turku PSTurku PS2228:2331
9IlvesIlves2234:3725
10SJKSJK2225:3319
11FF JaroFF Jaro2218:4415
12MariehamnMariehamn2217:4314

Relegration Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LahtiLahti271161035:26+939WLDLW
2IlvesIlves271151145:39+638WDWWW
3Turku PSTurku PS27881129:33-432LLLLD
4SJKSJK27691229:37-827LWWDD
5FF JaroFF Jaro27491422:49-2721DWDDL
6MariehamnMariehamn27471622:49-2719DDLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1LahtiLahti2735:2639
2IlvesIlves2745:3938
3Turku PSTurku PS2729:3332
4SJKSJK2729:3727
5FF JaroFF Jaro2722:4921
6MariehamnMariehamn2722:4919
Relegation

About the Lahti vs Mariehamn forecast

The forecasts for this Veikkausliiga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Lahti and Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga table

In the Veikkausliiga table, Lahti are 7th and Mariehamn 12th, 18 points apart. League goal record so far: Lahti 26-19, Mariehamn 17-43. The full standings are on the Veikkausliiga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lahti have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.