Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction
France · Regular Season - 6
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.60
SignalNEUTRALModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-0.9%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.51
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+5.8%
Monaco Rest
22 days
Toulouse Rest
7 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
159%1.63
X22%4.20
219%5.00
Double Chance
1X81%1.18
X241%2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes60%1.60
No40%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.89 + 1.29 = 3.18
Over 1.581%1.16
Over 2.561%1.60
Over 3.540%2.38
Under 1.519%4.78
Under 2.539%2.42
Under 3.560%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.1 = 9.3
Over 8.561%1.44
Over 9.551%1.77
Over 10.535%2.25
Under 8.539%2.54
Under 9.549%1.99
Under 10.565%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.9 = 3.5
Over 3.546%1.94
Over 4.527%2.83
Under 3.554%1.81
Under 4.573%1.40
Match Events
29'Edan DiopAssist: Aleksandr Golovin
38'Matthis AblineAssist: Edan Diop
45'Jacen Russell-Rowe INSion Oppong out
47'Flavio NazinhoFoul
48'Casper Tengstedt(Penalty)
51'Denis Zakaria INSafouane Benzahra out
54'Aleksandr GolovinTime wasting
58'Edan Diop INStanis Idumbo out
58'Mathys Detourbet INFolarin Balogun out
59'Sion OppongAssist: Casper Tengstedt
70'Cristian CasseresFoul
71'Ilyas Azizi INNiko Sigur out
75'Vanderson INJordan Teze out
75'Matthis Abline INAnsu Fati out
77'Rafik Messali INIsmaïl Diallo out
84'Alexis Vossah INAron Dønnum out
84'Casper Tengstedt INSantiago Hidalgo out
90+3'Sion OppongTime wasting
Lineups
MonacoToulouse
4-2-3-1Coach: Jens Berthel AskouAvg ratingAvg rating
1L. Hrádecký
2Vanderson
72S. Sané
15E. Dier
20F. Nazinho
8L. Camara
6D. Zakaria
37E. Diop
10A. Golovin
7M. Detourbet
11M. Abline
16G. Restes
22R. Messali
5S. Koumbassa
3M. McKenzie
12C. Tapé
23C. Cásseres
6A. Vossah
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
37Y. Azizi
13J. Russell-RoweMonaco Substitutes
46A. Soubeir
4J. Teze75'for Vanderson
9F. Balogun58'for Mathys Detourbet
47S. Benzahra51'for Denis Zakaria
31Ansu Fati75'for Matthis Abline
17S. Idumbo-Muzambo58'for Edan Diop
16P. Köhn
13C. Mawissa Elebi
22M. Salisu
Toulouse Substitutes
94I. Diallo77'for Rafik Messali
15A. Dønnum84'for Alexis Vossah
9S. Hidalgo84'for Casper Tengstedt
60M. Niflore
19D. Odogu
11S. Oppong45'for Jacen Russell-Rowe59'90+3'
31N. Schmidt
14N. Sigur71'for Ilyas Azizi
18M. Amougou
Match Stats
MonacoToulouse 58%Ball Possession42%
4Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots1
10Fouls16
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
646Total Passes464
574Passes Accurate403
16Free Kicks10
Team Comparison
MonacoToulouse1864Elo Rating 1763
1.32Attack 2.18
1.81Defense 1.68
39%Hit Rate 46%
12.6Shots per Game 13.6
4.4Shots on Target 5.3
3.4Corners per Game 4.0
2.0Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+101 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.17 goals
📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Monaco- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Toulouse- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
Monaco4Wins · 50%Draws225%
Toulouse2Wins · 25%
2Wins · 25%2.5Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8
Previous meetings
25/04/2026ToulouseMonaco22
25/10/2025MonacoToulouse10
07/03/2025ToulouseMonaco11
07/12/2024MonacoToulouse20
18/02/2024MonacoToulouse12
20/12/2023ToulouseMonaco12
03/06/2023MonacoToulouse12
06/11/2022ToulouseMonaco02
Recent Form
Monaco8W1D1L
18/09/2026Monaco
Lens
StrasbourgMonaco
Paris Saint GermainMonacoMonaco
MarseilleMonaco
Gornik Zabrze
Le HavreMonacoGornik ZabrzeMonaco
MonacoLens21
W12/09/2026StrasbourgMonaco11
D04/09/2026Paris Saint GermainMonaco12
W30/08/2026MonacoMarseille20
W27/08/2026MonacoGornik Zabrze41
W23/08/2026Le HavreMonaco01
W20/08/2026Gornik ZabrzeMonaco23
W14/08/2026
CoventryMonaco
CoventryMonaco20
L09/08/2026
LiverpoolMonaco
LiverpoolMonaco23
W06/08/2026Monaco
Getafe
MonacoGetafe10
WToulouse3W3D4L
03/10/2026Toulouse
PAU
19/09/2026ToulousePAU23
LToulouseLe Havre32
W12/09/2026
LorientToulouse22
D03/09/2026Toulouse
Lille01
L29/08/2026
Stade Brestois 29Toulouse22
D22/08/2026Toulouse
Lyon02
L15/08/2026Toulouse
Hamburger SV
ToulouseHamburger SV12
L31/07/2026Toulouse
Real Sociedad
ToulouseReal Sociedad21
W25/07/2026Toulouse
Rodez
ToulouseRodez11
D10/05/2026ToulouseLyon
ToulouseLyon21
WReferee Profile
4.11Cards per match
3.87Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.11 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.97).
Cards come from 171 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:7 | +5 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 14 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | +4 | 14 | LDWDW |
| 6 |  Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:14 | +1 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 11 | WWLDW |
| 8 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | WWLDL |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:10 | +4 | 9 | WWLLL |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 9 | WDWDL |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11:17 | -6 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12:15 | -3 | 7 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | -5 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:11 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 | Nice | 8 | 8:10 | 11 |
| 9 | Lens | 7 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 5:11 | 2 |
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This match
About the Monaco vs Toulouse forecast
The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Monaco and Toulouse in the Ligue 1 table
In the Ligue 1 table, Monaco are 5th and Toulouse 12th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Monaco 10-6, Toulouse 12-11. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Monaco have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.