Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction

Paris Saint Germain
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Monaco
Parc des Princes, Paris·J. Brisard 04/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 3.5
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+11.8%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
7 days
Monaco Rest
5 days

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: result, form and history

Monaco beat Paris Saint Germain 2-1 in the Ligue 1 on 4 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Monaco had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Paris Saint Germain.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.7 goals, and both sides scored in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.34
X
20%5.75
2
16%7.60
Double Chance
1X
84%1.08
X2
36%3.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
80%1.55
No
20%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.1 + 1.22 = 3.32
Over 1.5
83%1.08
Over 2.5
63%1.33
Over 3.5
38%1.90
Under 1.5
17%7.00
Under 2.5
37%3.17
Under 3.5
62%1.92
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.2 = 8.4
Over 8.5
37%1.45
Over 9.5
23%1.80
Over 10.5
12%2.21
Under 8.5
63%2.51
Under 9.5
77%1.95
Under 10.5
88%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 1.8 = 3.1
Over 3.5
37%1.99
Over 4.5
20%2.83
Under 3.5
63%1.75
Under 4.5
80%1.38

Match Events

31'Marcos Aoás CorrêaAssist: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
52'Vanderson INJordan Teze out
58'Flavio NazinhoAssist: Jordan Teze
63'Désiré Doue INFerrán Torres out
64'Warren Zaire-Emery INLucas Hernández out
68'Lucas HernándezFoul
68'Jordan TezeDissent
68'Khvicha Kvaratskhelia INMika Godts out
69'Maghnes Akliouche INOusmane Dembélé out
72'Stanis IdumboAssist: Aleksandr Golovin
73'Mamadou Coulibaly INAnis Soubeir out
73'Paris Brunner INMatthis Abline out
76'Fabián Ruiz INDro Fernández out
87'Aleksandr Golovin INSafouane Benzahra out
87'Stanis Idumbo INChristian Mawissa out

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis Enrique
Monaco
4-2-3-1Coach: Filipe Luís
Avg rating6.79
Avg rating6.62
M. Safonov6.239M. Safonov
A. Hakimi6.62A. Hakimi
Marquinhos8.15Marquinhos
W. Pacho6.851W. Pacho
W. Zaïre-Emery6.533W. Zaïre-Emery
João Neves6.887J. Neves
Vitinha7.217Vitinha
Fabián Ruiz6.78F. Ruiz
D. Doué7.014D. Doué
M. Akliouche7.011M. Akliouche
K. Kvaratskhelia7.77K. Kvaratskhelia
L. Hrádecký8.81L. Hrádecký
Vanderson6.12Vanderson
Sadibou Sané6.672S. Sané
E. Dier6.915E. Dier
Flávio Nazinho7.320F. Nazinho
L. Camara6.88L. Camara
D. Zakaria6.56D. Zakaria
M. Coulibaly5.928M. Coulibaly
A. Golovin5.910A. Golovin
S. Idumbo-Muzambo7.717S. Idumbo-Muzambo
Paris Josua  Brunner6.029P. Josua Brunner

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

10O. Dembélé69'for Maghnes Akliouche6.7
30L. Chevalier
27Pedro Fernández76'for Fabián Ruiz6.1
22M. Godts68'for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6.6
21L. Hernández64'for Warren Zaire-Emery68'6.5
4Beraldo
24Senny Mayulu
9Ferran Torres63'for Désiré Doue6.3
6I. Zabarnyi

Monaco Substitutes

11M. Abline73'for Paris Brunner6.4
47S. Benzahra87'for Aleksandr Golovin6.2
14M. Biereth
7M. Detourbet
16P. Köhn
13C. Mawissa Elebi87'for Stanis Idumbo6.3
46A. Soubeir73'for Mamadou Coulibaly6.2
4J. Teze52'for Vanderson68'6.4
49I. Touré

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainMonaco
68%Ball Possession32%
6Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards1
23Total Shots4
10Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal2
8Shots Inside Box2
15Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots0
9Fouls11
5Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves9
757Total Passes355
688Passes Accurate293
91%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
MonacoMonaco
2073Elo Rating 1867
4.24Attack 1.46
2.30Defense 1.98
100%Hit Rate 44%
18.9Shots per Game 11.7
10.8Shots on Target 3.9
5.4Corners per Game 4.0
0.4Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+207 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.32 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.5 vs 1.7 in first half)
MonacoMonaco
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
MonacoMonaco3Wins · 30%
3.7Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 106/03/2026
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
13
UEFA Champions League25/02/2026
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
22
UEFA Champions League17/02/2026
MonacoParis Saint Germain
23
Ligue 129/11/2025
MonacoParis Saint Germain
10
Ligue 107/02/2025
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
41
Trophée des Champions05/01/2025
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
10
Ligue 118/12/2024
MonacoParis Saint Germain
24
Ligue 101/03/2024
MonacoParis Saint Germain
00
Ligue 124/11/2023
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
52
Ligue 111/02/2023
MonacoParis Saint Germain
31

Recent Form

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
4W3D3L
28/08/2026
LilleParis Saint Germain
22
D
23/08/2026
RennesParis Saint Germain
22
D
16/08/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
10
L
12/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
21
W
08/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainManchester United
11
D
05/08/2026
MallorcaParis Saint Germain
30
L
30/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainArsenal
4131
W
17/05/2026
Paris FCParis Saint Germain
21
L
13/05/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
02
W
10/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
10
W
MonacoMonaco
7W1D2L
30/08/2026
MonacoMarseille
20
W
27/08/2026
MonacoGornik Zabrze
41
W
23/08/2026
Le HavreMonaco
01
W
20/08/2026
Gornik ZabrzeMonaco
23
W
14/08/2026
CoventryMonaco
20
L
09/08/2026
LiverpoolMonaco
23
W
06/08/2026
MonacoGetafe
10
W
31/07/2026
MonacoCercle Brugge
22
D
25/07/2026
Sporting CPMonaco
20
L
18/07/2026
MonacoSaint-Priest
52
W

Referee Profile

J. Brisard178 matches

4.12Cards per match
3.83Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

J. Brisard4.12
Other referees4.05

4.12 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.05).

Cards come from 170 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1072122:10+1223WWWWW
2LilleLille1063114:7+721WWDDW
3Paris FCParis FC1062217:10+720WWLWL
4MarseilleMarseille1060422:14+818WWWWW
5LyonLyon1052315:9+617LWLWL
6NiceNice1052315:12+317WWWLW
7MonacoMonaco1044213:11+216DLDLD
8RennesRennes1051421:21016LLWLW
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291043318:12+615WWLDW
10LorientLorient104339:8+115WLDWW
11LensLens1041517:15+213LLWWW
12ToulouseToulouse1034315:14+113WLDWD
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1031618:22-410LWLLL
14AuxerreAuxerre1031613:24-1110LLDWL
15Le MansLe Mans1015412:19-78DLDLL
16AngersAngers102269:19-108LLDLL
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes102267:17-108LWDLL
18Le HavreLe Havre100289:22-132LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1022:1023
2LilleLille1014:721
3Paris FCParis FC1017:1020
4MarseilleMarseille1022:1418
5LyonLyon1015:917
6NiceNice1015:1217
7MonacoMonaco1013:1116
8RennesRennes1021:2116
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291018:1215
10LorientLorient109:815
11LensLens1017:1513
12ToulouseToulouse1015:1413
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1018:2210
14AuxerreAuxerre1013:2410
15Le MansLe Mans1012:198
16AngersAngers109:198
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes107:178
18Le HavreLe Havre109:222
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Paris Saint Germain and Monaco in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Paris Saint Germain are 1st and Monaco 7th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Paris Saint Germain 22-10, Monaco 13-11. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.