Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction

Paris Saint Germain
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Monaco
Parc des Princes, Paris· J. Brisard 04/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 3.5
1.75
SignalSTRONGModel65%RiskMediumGap+11.8%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
7 days
Monaco Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.34
X
20%5.75
2
16%7.60
Double Chance
1X
84%1.08
X2
36%3.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
80%1.55
No
20%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.1 + 1.22 = 3.32
Over 1.5
83%1.08
Over 2.5
63%1.33
Over 3.5
38%1.90
Under 1.5
17%7.00
Under 2.5
37%3.17
Under 3.5
62%1.92
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.2 = 8.4
Over 8.5
37%1.45
Over 9.5
23%1.80
Over 10.5
12%2.21
Under 8.5
63%2.51
Under 9.5
77%1.95
Under 10.5
88%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 1.8 = 3.1
Over 3.5
37%1.99
Over 4.5
20%2.83
Under 3.5
63%1.75
Under 4.5
80%1.38

Match Events

31'Marcos Aoás CorrêaAssist: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
52'Vanderson INJordan Teze out
58'Flavio NazinhoAssist: Jordan Teze
63'Désiré Doue INFerrán Torres out
64'Warren Zaire-Emery INLucas Hernández out
68'Lucas HernándezFoul
68'Jordan TezeDissent
68'Khvicha Kvaratskhelia INMika Godts out
69'Maghnes Akliouche INOusmane Dembélé out
72'Stanis IdumboAssist: Aleksandr Golovin
73'Mamadou Coulibaly INAnis Soubeir out
73'Paris Brunner INMatthis Abline out
76'Fabián Ruiz INDro Fernández out
87'Aleksandr Golovin INSafouane Benzahra out
87'Stanis Idumbo INChristian Mawissa out

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis Enrique
Monaco
4-2-3-1Coach: Filipe Luís
M. Safonov39M. SafonovM. Safonov
A. Hakimi2A. HakimiA. Hakimi
Marquinhos5MarquinhosMarquinhos
W. Pacho51W. PachoW. Pacho
W. Zaïre-Emery33W. Zaïre-EmeryW. Zaïre-Emery
João Neves87J. NevesJoão Neves
Vitinha17VitinhaVitinha
Fabián Ruiz8F. RuizFabián Ruiz
D. Doué14D. DouéD. Doué
M. Akliouche11M. AklioucheM. Akliouche
K. Kvaratskhelia7K. KvaratskheliaK. Kvaratskhelia
L. Hrádecký1L. HrádeckýL. Hrádecký
Vanderson2VandersonVanderson
Sadibou Sané72S. SanéSadibou Sané
E. Dier15E. DierE. Dier
Flávio Nazinho20F. NazinhoFlávio Nazinho
L. Camara8L. CamaraL. Camara
D. Zakaria6D. ZakariaD. Zakaria
M. Coulibaly28M. CoulibalyM. Coulibaly
A. Golovin10A. GolovinA. Golovin
S. Idumbo-Muzambo17S. Idumbo-MuzamboS. Idumbo-Muzambo
Paris Josua  Brunner29P. Josua BrunnerParis Josua Brunner

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

10O. DembéléF
30L. ChevalierG
27Pedro FernándezM
22M. GodtsF
21L. HernándezD
4BeraldoD
24Senny MayuluM
9Ferran TorresF
6I. ZabarnyiD

Monaco Substitutes

11M. AblineF
47S. BenzahraM
14M. BierethF
7M. DetourbetF
16P. KöhnG
13C. Mawissa ElebiD
46A. SoubeirM
4J. TezeD
49I. TouréM

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainMonaco
68%Ball Possession32%
6Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards1
23Total Shots4
10Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal2
8Shots Inside Box2
13Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots0
9Fouls11
5Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves9
754Total Passes352
688Passes Accurate294
11Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
MonacoMonaco
1960Elo Rating 1868
2.45Attack 1.92
1.77Defense 2.34
50%Hit Rate 73%
22.2Shots per Game 10.7
8.4Shots on Target 4.2
5.5Corners per Game 4.1
1.2Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy3.32 goals
📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MonacoMonaco
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.7 in first half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Paris Saint Germain 34%Draw 23%44% Monaco
3.84Avg Goals
83%BTTS Rate
83%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Referee Profile

J. Brisard · 98 matches analysed

3.8Avg Yellows
4.1Avg Cards
23.9Avg Fouls
Stricter than 19% of referees analysed

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LilleLille43107:2+510WWDW
2MonacoMonaco43106:2+410DWWW
3RennesRennes43108:5+310WWWD
4LyonLyon42206:2+48DWDW
5Paris FCParis FC42206:2+48DWWD
6StrasbourgStrasbourg42119:8+17DWWL
7Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 2941216:605LWDD
8Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain41216:605WLDD
9LorientLorient41214:405DWLD
10LensLens41128:7+14DLLW
11AngersAngers41124:5-14DLWL
12Estac TroyesEstac Troyes41124:9-54LLWD
13MarseilleMarseille41036:603LLLW
14Le MansLe Mans40317:8-13DDLD
15AuxerreAuxerre41035:11-63WLLL
16Le HavreLe Havre40222:4-22DLDL
17ToulouseToulouse40224:7-32DLDL
18NiceNice40221:5-42LDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1LilleLille47:210
2MonacoMonaco46:210
3RennesRennes48:510
4LyonLyon46:28
5Paris FCParis FC46:28
6StrasbourgStrasbourg49:87
7Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 2946:65
8Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain46:65
9LorientLorient44:45
10LensLens48:74
11AngersAngers44:54
12Estac TroyesEstac Troyes44:94
13MarseilleMarseille46:63
14Le MansLe Mans47:83
15AuxerreAuxerre45:113
16Le HavreLe Havre42:42
17ToulouseToulouse44:72
18NiceNice41:52
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Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Ligue 1 fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Ligue 1

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Key Factors for This Match

Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Monaco have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Paris Saint Germain and Monaco have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.84 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.