Lorient vs Toulouse Prediction

Lorient
2-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Toulouse
Stade du Moustoir, Lorient·Aurelien Petit 12/09/2026
LorientLorient
2-2
Finished
ToulouseToulouse

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.59
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+3.2%
Lorient Rest
7 days
Toulouse Rest
9 days

Lorient vs Toulouse: result, form and history

Lorient and Toulouse drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1 on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.40
X
28%3.30
2
35%3.00
Double Chance
1X
65%1.39
X2
63%1.55
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.65
No
44%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.58 + 1.15 = 2.73
Over 1.5
75%1.27
Over 2.5
55%1.89
Over 3.5
32%3.15
Under 1.5
25%3.56
Under 2.5
45%1.96
Under 3.5
68%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.3 = 9.7
Over 8.5
61%1.55
Over 9.5
52%1.99
Over 10.5
38%2.50
Under 8.5
39%2.31
Under 9.5
48%1.80
Under 10.5
62%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.3 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.73
Over 4.5
35%2.25
Under 3.5
45%2.00
Under 4.5
65%1.59

Match Events

17'Panos KatserisFoul
37'Ibrahima BaldeAssist: Panos Katseris
39'Noah MbambaAssist: Panos Katseris
45'Santiago Hidalgo INCasper Tengstedt out
45'Rafik Messali INNiko Sigur out
48'Casper TengstedtAssist: Cristian Casseres
58'Panos Katseris INThéo Le Bris out
58'Gabin Bernardeau INIsak Jensen out
67'Ilyas Azizi INSion Oppong out
68'Thomas JorgensenAssist: Cristian Casseres
69'Ibrahima Balde INMamadou Kone out
69'Noah Mbamba INArthur Avom out
84'Niklas Schmidt INAlexis Vossah out
84'Christ Tape INIsmaïl Diallo out

Lineups

Lorient
3-4-2-1Coach: A. Dujeux
Toulouse
4-2-3-1Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
Avg rating6.63
Avg rating6.61
Y. Mvogo6.038Y. Mvogo
D. Sylla6.520D. Sylla
M. Talbi6.83M. Talbi
N. Adjei6.732N. Adjei
P. Katseris7.177P. Katseris
N. Cadiou6.48N. Cadiou
N. Mbamba7.972N. Mbamba
K. Kouassi6.743K. Kouassi
G. Bernardeau5.933G. Bernardeau
J. Makengo6.317J. Makengo
I. Baldé7.818I. Baldé
M. Niflore6.060M. Niflore
R. Messali6.222R. Messali
S. Koumbassa6.45S. Koumbassa
M. McKenzie6.53M. McKenzie
C. Tapé6.512C. Tapé
N. Schmidt6.731N. Schmidt
C. Cásseres8.623C. Cásseres
S. Hidalgo5.99S. Hidalgo
T. Jørgensen7.48T. Jørgensen
Y. Azizi6.437Y. Azizi
J. Russell-Rowe6.113J. Russell-Rowe

Lorient Substitutes

19S. Faye
2A. Georgen
21B. Kamara
42M. Kone69'for Ibrahima Balde6.5
55N. Obaretin
10I. Jensen58'for Gabin Bernardeau6.6
11T. Le Bris58'for Panos Katseris6.2
62A. Avom69'for Noah Mbamba6.3
15A. Tosin

Toulouse Substitutes

18M. Amougou
1T. Collin
94I. Diallo84'for Christ Tape6.2
6A. Vossah84'for Niklas Schmidt6.0
19D. Odogu
11S. Oppong67'for Ilyas Azizi6.9
14N. Sigur45'for Rafik Messali6.6
20C. Tengstedt45'for Santiago Hidalgo48'7.5
7Julián Vignolo

Match Stats

LorientToulouse
41%Ball Possession59%
4Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards0
10Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal6
6Shots Inside Box13
4Shots Outside Box0
3Blocked Shots3
8Fouls18
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves1
445Total Passes657
372Passes Accurate581
84%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

LorientLorient
ToulouseToulouse
1740Elo Rating 1759
0.50Attack 1.59
2.18Defense 1.99
36%Hit Rate 44%
10.5Shots per Game 10.5
1.9Shots on Target 4.9
5.3Corners per Game 4.2
1.5Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LorientLorient
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ToulouseToulouse
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

LorientLorient0Wins · 0%
Draws350%
ToulouseToulouse3Wins · 50%
2.2Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored4 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

Ligue 121/03/2026
ToulouseLorient
10
Ligue 109/11/2025
LorientToulouse
11
Ligue 128/04/2024
LorientToulouse
12
Ligue 103/12/2023
ToulouseLorient
11
Ligue 123/04/2023
LorientToulouse
01
Ligue 121/08/2022
ToulouseLorient
22

Recent Form

LorientLorient
5W1D4L
05/09/2026
LensLorient
01
W
29/08/2026
LorientEstac Troyes
12
L
22/08/2026
NiceLorient
00
D
15/08/2026
SV ElversbergLorient
41
L
08/08/2026
AngersLorient
21
L
04/08/2026
LorientUNFP
51
W
25/07/2026
GuingampLorient
02
W
18/07/2026
LorientNantes
10
W
11/07/2026
ConcarneauLorient
12
W
17/05/2026
LorientLe Havre
02
L
ToulouseToulouse
3W3D4L
03/09/2026
ToulouseLille
01
L
29/08/2026
Stade Brestois 29Toulouse
22
D
22/08/2026
ToulouseLyon
02
L
15/08/2026
ToulouseHamburger SV
12
L
31/07/2026
ToulouseReal Sociedad
21
W
25/07/2026
ToulouseRodez
11
D
10/05/2026
ToulouseLyon
21
W
03/05/2026
StrasbourgToulouse
12
W
25/04/2026
ToulouseMonaco
22
D
21/04/2026
LensToulouse
41
L

Referee Profile

Aurelien Petit145 matches

3.77Cards per match
3.54Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
25.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Aurelien Petit3.77
Other referees3.97

3.77 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.97).

Cards come from 132 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1072122:10+1223WWWWW
2LilleLille1063114:7+721WWDDW
3Paris FCParis FC1062217:10+720WWLWL
4MarseilleMarseille1060422:14+818WWWWW
5LyonLyon1052315:9+617LWLWL
6NiceNice1052315:12+317WWWLW
7MonacoMonaco1044213:11+216DLDLD
8RennesRennes1051421:21016LLWLW
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291043318:12+615WWLDW
10LorientLorient104339:8+115WLDWW
11LensLens1041517:15+213LLWWW
12ToulouseToulouse1034315:14+113WLDWD
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1031618:22-410LWLLL
14AuxerreAuxerre1031613:24-1110LLDWL
15Le MansLe Mans1015412:19-78DLDLL
16AngersAngers102269:19-108LLDLL
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes102267:17-108LWDLL
18Le HavreLe Havre100289:22-132LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1022:1023
2LilleLille1014:721
3Paris FCParis FC1017:1020
4MarseilleMarseille1022:1418
5LyonLyon1015:917
6NiceNice1015:1217
7MonacoMonaco1013:1116
8RennesRennes1021:2116
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291018:1215
10LorientLorient109:815
11LensLens1017:1513
12ToulouseToulouse1015:1413
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1018:2210
14AuxerreAuxerre1013:2410
15Le MansLe Mans1012:198
16AngersAngers109:198
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes107:178
18Le HavreLe Havre109:222
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lorient vs Toulouse forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lorient and Toulouse in the Ligue 1 table

Lorient and Toulouse are close in the Ligue 1 table, 10th and 12th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Lorient 9-8, Toulouse 15-14. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.